Jettisoning Kerry Wood: All the attention was on the decision to not re-sign Kerry Wood, which I didn't really mind. My problem is that for some ungodly reason they didn't offer him arbitration, meaning they'll get no draft-pick compensation from the Indians (or the league) for losing him. 'Illogical' doesn't even begin to do it justice. Was it just that they were worried he might take it? It would've only been a one-season commitment, so who cares? And it's not like they were so fiscally responsible the rest of the off-season anyway. I don't care if closers have historically done well in arbitration, Wood wouldn't have accepted it because at that point no one knew how badly the economy was going to affect (non-Yankee) free agent deals.
I'm left to conclude that the Cubs didn't offer arbitration out of some deranged sense of loyalty to Kerry Wood; that is, they didn't want to limit his free agent opportunities by having compensatory picks tied to him. That sounds like something Jim Hendry would do, as a man of (misplaced) integrity. I don't know what else it could be, and if I am correct -- and god do I hope I'm not -- every Cub fan should be furious.
First off, that would be putting one person ahead of the organization. Save Josh Vitters, the Cubs minor-league system is completely devoid of prospects, so those extra picks would have been invaluable. Besides, the Cubs didn't owe Kerry Wood a thing. If anything, he still owed the Cubs, as they compensated him richly, year-after-year, and got very little ROI. But their patient investment finally pays off with the season they'd been hoping for, and that's when they say No mas? Really? Alright, fine. I can accept that. But you have to offer him arbitration. Have to. HAVE TO.
And that's not even considering the PR nightmare they predictably triggered, with fans in utter disbelief that the Cubs could do such a thing to longtime favorite Kerry Wood. Whereas if Hendry had just offered arbitration and Wood refused, the story would've been him turning his back on the organization that had stood by him for so long. But no. Just a ball-dropping of the highest order. Grade: F
And the worst part was, it led to this:
Trading for Kevin Gregg: Gregg, an arbitration-eligible reliever who the Marlins might have non-tendered, was acquired in an attempt to soften the blow of losing Wood. Instead, it just amplified it, because they gave up the best power arm in their farm system, Jose Ceda, to do so.* This is the same Kevin Gregg who couldn't hold down the closer's job PITCHING FOR THE FUCKING MARLINS. Yeah, I'm sure he'll be great in Wrigley. Plus, the Cubs farm system is so loaded with quality arms that they won't even miss Jose Ceda. I mean, they still have... uh... that one... umm... or that guy... uh...
* With the exception of the Derrek Lee-for-Hee Seop Choi deal -- which was indisputably a salary dump by Florida-- the Cubs have been violated so many times by Marlins GM Larry Beinfest that I think Jim Hendry has developed Stockholm Syndrome. The Dontrelle Willis debacle. The Juan Pierre fiasco. And now the great Jose Ceda giveaway. Note to the Cubs' switchboard: Next time Beinfest calls, don't patch him through. And Jim, your cell phone's been cloned -- yeah, that's it -- so you need to get a new number.
Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry
What makes it all the more frustrating is that the Cubs themselves had stolen Ceda, getting him from the Padres for Todd Walker at the trade deadline in 2006. Forget about the future -- which the Cubs apparently did -- I'm guessing that even right now Ceda could be as effective as Gregg, at a fraction of the cost. Unfortunately, though, pitching prospects-for-mediocre relievers is a time-worn Cubs' tradition: from Jon Garland-for-Matt Karchner to Kyle Lohse-for-Rick Aguilera to Ceda-for-Gregg, it doesn't matter how many times they get burned, the Cubs will keep on touching that hot stove. You have to admire their resolve. Grade: F
Re-signing Ryan Dempster: The Cubs, always anxious to head off the scores of free agency poachers looking to appropriate their desirables, signed Dempster to a ridiculous long-term deal (4 years $52 million) before seeing that the recession would, in fact, affect (non-Yankee) free agency. I would have been outraged by this deal regardless -- paying that kind of money for a soon-to-be 32-year-old starter with exactly one standout season in his last seven is insanity -- but this year, it was especially egregious. Grade: D
Signing Joey Gathright: I suppose the terms were reasonable (one-year, $800,000), but why anyone would want Joey Gathright instead of Felix Pie is beyond me. Felix Pie's absolute worst-case scenario as a player is Joey Gathright. While the 28-year-old Gathright's career OBP is merely bad at .328, his slugging percentage is a huh?-inducing .304. And he was coming off a .254/.311/.272 season, after which the Kansas City Royals, of all teams, decided he was no longer good enough to play for them.
Of course Gathright's been given nearly 1,300 plate appearances to prove that he's horrible, while Pie, the player the fans and media were so anxious to label an over-hyped bust, was given a grand total of 287, spread out over two years. And I mean spread out: last season, he started the first four games, went 3-for-15, then never again started more than three games in a row. Good organizations put their young players in a position to succeed; the Cubs never did that with Pie. They gave him limited chances, and immediately relegated him to the bench at the first sign of adversity. Compare that to the way the Red Sox allowed Jacoby Ellsbury to play through his struggles, for literally weeks at a time, and ultimately watched him blossom.
Gathright's signing effectively meant the end of Pie, because the latter was out of options. In essence, they decided to give up a player who might be good in favor of a guy who has proven, time and again, that he is not. The signing also served to further decrease what little trade value Pie might have had remaining. Without a doubt, the Cubs botched Pie's handling at every turn. Really, no one knows if Felix Pie -- who's still just 24 -- will end up being a star or a bust, because the Cubs never gave him enough of a chance to find out. Grade: D-
Trading Mark DeRosa: I've covered this here, but I'll just briefly say that I wasn't exactly thrilled the Cubs traded their most versatile player, and the one guy who showed a pair in the Dodgers series, so that they could free up the money to sign an injury-prone malcontent. Plus, while the deal netted the Cubs three prospects, none of them were even in the Indians' organizational top-30; who knows though, maybe they'll get lucky with one of them. DeRosa's departure did open up a spot in the lineup for Mike Fontenot, who I'm glad to see finally get a chance to be an everyday player. Grade: D-
Signing Aaron Miles: This is our DeRosa replacement? Sure, Miles is a reasonable facsimile of DeRosa, provided you won't quibble over 100 points of OPS. Additionally, Miles made Ronny Cedeno obsolete, even though Cedeno was the better (and much cheaper) player; call me crazy, but even in this day and age two years, $4.9 million seems like an awful lot of money for a utility guy. Grade: D
Trading Jason Marquis: The Cubs acquired the overpaid Luis Vizcaino in the deal with the Rockies, but I would've taken Denny Neagle at that point. Marquis was horrible, and they saved nearly $5 million getting rid of him. This was a classic addition-by-subtraction, as Sean Marshall should be a significant upgrade in Marquis' fifth-starter slot, a concept I covered in great detail here. Truly the lone bright spot of this dismal off-season. Grade: A
Signing Milton Bradley: While the Bradley deal -- 3 years, $30 million, though the Cubs have an out after two years if Bradley has missed substantial time -- was bad enough on its own, it really served to elucidate just how horrible the Alfonso Soriano signing was. Had the Cubs not had that albatross in left, they could have pursued Pat Burrell (2 yr/$16 million) or Adam Dunn (2 yr/$20 million), both of whom have been healthier, more productive, and less bottle-throwy throughout their careers than Bradley. His inability to stay in the lineup is well-known, but because the Cubs were tied to getting a right fielder, they had to pay much more to get much less. Grade: D+
Trading Felix Pie: See the Gathright signing. I was willing to give Hendry a tiny bit of slack here, provided either or both of the two players they acquired from the Orioles, pitchers Garrett Olson and Henry Williamson, were turned around in a deal for Jake Peavy. Which was also part of the whispered justification for the prospects in the DeRosa deal, incidentally. Grade: D
So imagine my chagrin when the other shoe dropped with:
The acquisition of Aaron Heilman for Garret Olson and Ronny Cedeno: Oh, come on! Essentially you gave up two of your best up-the-middle prospects of the last few years (I'm including Pie, by extension) for a guy the Mets were dying to dump? Heilman was a mere throw-in to the Mariners in the J.J. Putz deal, but the Cubs couldn't wait to get their hands on the 30-year-old with the 5.21 ERA. Why? Supposedly because Jim Hendry had been an admirer since Heilman's days at Notre Dame. Hey, Jim, here are some other college pitchers you admired: Bobby Brownlie, Ben Christensen, and Grant Johnson. How 'bout we try going with major league track record instead, alright buddy? Thanks. Grade: F
Trading Rich Hill: I'm not sure exactly what went wrong with Rich Hill, but I am certain it was the Cubs that broke him. Still, it was clear he was no longer going to succeed here. Like Cedeno and Pie, Hill was a perfect sell-high candidate a few off-seasons ago, but the Cubs inexplicably deemed him untouchable.** Grade: D-
** No one, and I mean no one, should be considered untouchable in baseball. It's just way too much of a team game. If I were running the Mets, Jose Reyes and David Wright wouldn't be untouchable. Same with the Marlins and Hanley Ramirez. Sure, the price would be high. You'd definitely have to blow me.
Whoops, I meant to write, "You'd definitely have to blow me away with a package of Grade A prospects and cheap-but-productive major leaguers the likes of which have never been, but anyone can be had in the right deal." Freudian typo.
Trading Michael Wuertz: Perhaps prospects Justin Sellers (highly unlikely) and Richie Robnett (is there something less likely than highly unlikely?) will pan out, but I always thought Wuertz was pretty effective, at least until his K-rate fell off last year. And my friend Phat Clemenza really liked him. So, apparently, did A's GM Billy Beane. Which makes me very, very nervous. Grade: C-
Overall off-season GPA: 1.0
So there you have the 2009 Cubs, the perfect D-student. Alright, so that's a little harsh. But the bottom line is, I don't think this team is as good as last year's. The outfield seems shaky, the infield is a year older, the bench is weaker, and the roster in general seems less versatile. Plus the bullpen is markedly crappier. The only area that's not appreciably worse is the starting rotation. And while I love the Marshall-for-Marquis swap, they're counting on Dempster recreating his fluke season, Carlos Zambrano stopping his regression, and Rich Harden staying healthy. I don't hold out a lot of hope that even one of those things will happen.
And yet...
Just because the Cubs are worse than last season, that doesn't mean they can't -- or won't -- go further in the playoffs. Luck is such a huge factor in a short series that if they do get in, even with a lesser squad they'd be likely to fare better than they did in '08. Not that that's saying much. While I wouldn't be shocked if someone else won their awful division, the Cubs still have to be considered the overwhelming favorite. And once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen. But it's been so long since the anything has been that thing, I just can't say, It's gonna happen.
Predicted finish: 89-73, first in NL Central. Division Series loser.
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