Marshall Law (non-Sammo Hung version)

Filed under the category 'Only Two Years Too Late':

Lou Piniella named Sean Marshall as his fifth starter Thursday, as expected, ending the four-way battle for the last spot in the Cubs' rotation.

"Marshall is going to be the fifth starter, and [Aaron] Heilman is going to pitch in that seventh-eighth-inning role," he said.

Marshall posted a 0.63 ERA in five outings, including four starts. Heilman, who started Thursday's 9-2 victory over Seattle, allowed two earned runs in 132/3 innings over five games. He was the only other viable option.

The other two candidates, Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin, both struggled in their outings and now are on the bubble for two bullpen vacancies. Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol, Neal Cotts and Heilman are considered locks, while Luis Vizcaino probably will make it because the Cubs would have to eat $4 million if they release him.*

-- Paul Sullivan, Chicago Tribune, 03.20.09

* And here, I instantly became infuriated. I don't know if it's Sullivan editorializing, because it's bad enough that the Cubs most high-profile beat writer doesn't understand the concept of a sunk cost. But oh God do I hope he's editorializing. Because if the Cubs themselves don't understand the concept, I seriously might hang myself. And not the quick, kick-the-chair-out-from-under-me hanging. No, I'm talking the slow and torturous kind, where I am gradually lifted by the neck, painful and prolonged, begging for a death that just won't come, as I feel my every last excruciating moment on this Earth slowly melt away. It's just that upsetting.

So anyway, Marshall's the fifth starter, eh? To which I reply, "About fucking time."

Yes, Sean Marshall should have been the Cubs fifth starter going into 2007. Let's compare two National League starting pitchers' lines from 2006:

Pitcher A
14-16, 33 GS, 194.1 IP, 221 H, 136 R, 130 ER, 35 HR, 75 BB, 96 K, 6.02 ERA, 1.523 WHIP

Pitcher B
6-9, 24 GS, 125.2 IP, 132 H, 85 R, 78 ER, 20 HR, 59 BB, 77 K, 5.59 ERA, 1.520 WHIP

Admittedly, there's not a whole lot to choose from there. However, add in that Pitcher B was a 23-year-old rookie left-hander, while A was 27 and righty. And that Pitcher B worked in a hitters' park, while A toiled in a (slight) pitchers' park, making their respective ERA+'s 83 (not so good) and 74 (REALLY not so good). I mean, you'd have to go with Pitcher B, right? Not so fast. Pitcher A had a freshly-minted World Series ring, and postseason performance could certainly swing the pendulum in his... What's that? What's that you say? You say Pitcher A didn't once play?

That's right. Pitcher A's postseason line:
0-0, 0 GS, 0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 0 HBP, 0.00 ERA, 0.000 WHIP

But, hey, the WHIP and the ERA look pretty damn good. In Pitcher A's defense, it's difficult to pitch when YOU ARE LEFT OFF THE POSTSEASON ROSTER. Which, incidentally, probably isn't a great sign. But instead of just paying Pitcher B (Sean Marshall, surprisingly) the league minimum to be their fifth starter in 2007, the Cubs inexplicably gave Pitcher A (Jason Marquis) a 3-year, $21 million contract to fill the role.** Ugh.

** For those of you who want to accuse me of using the benefit of hindsight in my analysis, I made essentially the exact same post on my fantasy football league's message board shortly after all this happened. Seriously, you can ask them. I'm sure they'll all remember, as they were no doubt thrilled that I was using a California-based fantasy football league's web site as a forum to bitch about the Cubs' foibles.

Due to injuries and others' ineffectiveness, Marshall still ended up making 19 starts for the Cubs in 2007; Marquis made 33. Their stats as starters:

Marquis
12-9, 191 IP, 186 H, 107 R, 94 ER, 22 HR, 75 BB, 107 K, 4.43 ERA, 1.366 WHIP

Marshall
7-8, 100 IP, 105 H, 52 R, 45 ER, 13 HR, 33 BB, 64 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.380 WHIP

Again, not a whole lot to choose from. The larger issue was, for that very similar production, the Cubs paid Marquis about 15 times what Marshall made. No matter. With the ink barely dried on that canny contract, Marquis was again given a spot in the rotation in 2008, while Marshall was ticketed (primarily) for the bullpen. The numbers:

Marquis
11-9, 167 IP, 172 H, 87 R, 84 ER, 15 HR, 70 BB, 91 K, 4.53 ERA, 99 ERA+, 1.449 WHIP

Marshall
3-5, 65.3 IP, 60 H, 28 R, 28 ER, 9 HR, 23 BB, 58 K, 3.86 ERA, 116 ERA+, 1.270 WHIP

I'll say this for Marquis: He sure is lucky with that win-loss record. However, after the season the evidence of Marquis' mediocrity became too much for even the Cubs to ignore. Of course, they didn't have the cajones to just cut him loose, which turned out to be a good thing for the Cubs. By sweetening the deal with $875,000 cash, Hendry ultimately found a taker in the Rockies in exchange for fellow free-agent bust Luis Vizcaino -- see how it comes full circle? -- saving the Cubs' new owners a cool $5 million. And now the Cubs can, in fact, just dump Vizcaino, and the uproar over paying him $4 million to go away will be nothing compared to what Hendry would've faced had he waived Marquis this offseason. Then he would've had to answer for paying $21 million for two seasons of replacement-level starting pitching, whereas now no one even mentions that he wasted $16 million on it.

Which is why I believe Hendry will have no trouble getting rid of Vizcaino if he's not performing -- the entire acquisition was just a subterfuge to begin with. Jim Hendry might be an idiot, but he ain't no dummy.