tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45952879806193710942024-02-06T20:08:13.790-06:00Mr. Sports Know-It-AllA blog about sports, by a mister who knows it allMr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.comBlogger151125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-3790604879708682192018-12-01T11:44:00.002-06:002018-12-01T12:00:22.386-06:00Totally Topical Titillating Trivia Time, Dudes! <div class="MsoNormal">
Alright, who wants to play a little game of <i>What Do They Have in Common? </i>Some of the answers will be incredibly straightforward and dull, and others will be ridiculously specific and obscure, so this promises to a rip-roarin' good time! To get you comfortable, we'll do the first one together. Remember, while the answer might in some cases be painfully obvious, it will be football-related, so nothing like <i>They're all Capricorns with a cleft chin and a last name that ends with a vowel.</i> Ready? Alright, if I were to ask for <b>Question 1</b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>just as I'm doing right now<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>what do the following players have in common:</div>
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Raymond Berry (2)</div>
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Fred Biletnikoff (3)</div>
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Charlie Joiner (3)</div>
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You would say, <i>They're all Hall of Fame receivers! </i>You might also say, <i>What do those parenthetical numbers mean?, </i>but we'll get to that in due time, my friend. In due time. For now, are you ready for the rest of the trios (answers after the last of 'em to prevent spoilage):</div>
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<b>Question 2:</b></div>
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Donald Driver (2)</div>
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Ahman Green (1)</div>
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Jordy Nelson (4)</div>
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<b>Question 3:</b> </div>
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Davante Adams (4)</div>
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Antonio Brown (4)</div>
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Adam Thielen (2)</div>
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<b>Question 4:</b><br />
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Dave Casper (4)</div>
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Tony Gonzalez (4)</div>
Shannon Sharpe (2) <br />
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<b>Question 5:</b></div>
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Rod Smith (3) </div>
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Reggie Wayne (4)</div>
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Roddy White (3)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR5kWlYqJhJzu8OA4FxbOOnQpFmsweH6Z4upDJ6STqGhHga8_VjmmUWMmRz8xjZ3Z3XV8pDCLTVd5a_oxI_eskNKihRzDznmSOSmdxfbhZKI6sG9RaSuKNc165GSmMw1tdiPKxy6fuySs/s1600/Berry.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="750" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR5kWlYqJhJzu8OA4FxbOOnQpFmsweH6Z4upDJ6STqGhHga8_VjmmUWMmRz8xjZ3Z3XV8pDCLTVd5a_oxI_eskNKihRzDznmSOSmdxfbhZKI6sG9RaSuKNc165GSmMw1tdiPKxy6fuySs/s400/Berry.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Answer 2:</b><br />
Scored 60+ touchdowns for the Packers. With Sterling Sharpe, the only players not in the Hall of Fame to do so.<br />
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<b>Answer 3:</b><br />
Pro Bowl wide receivers last season (and likely again this one). Or, three of the six players (with Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, and DeAndre Hopkins) with <a href="http://pfref.com/tiny/LI6Y4" target="_blank">220+ receptions, 2800 yards, and 15 TDs</a> since the beginning of 2016. Duh.<br />
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<b>Answer 4:</b><br />
They're tight ends. And for all practical purposes, <i>Hall-of-Fame tight ends</i>, although Gonzalez is technically as-yet unenshrined.</div>
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<b>Answer 5:</b><br />
800+ receptions, 10,000+ yards while playing entire career for one team. Also, they all managed to average the exact same yards per catch (13.4).</div>
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<i>Well that was a bunch of pointless BS</i>, you're potentially saying to yourself right now, perhaps in a somewhat less genteel manner. But it wasn't, exactly. Because if you look at the players from the five lists, all of them have something in common, and it's that stuff in the parentheses. In their first two seasons, those 15 players<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>along with other offensive stalwarts like Cliff Branch (3), Harold Carmichael (2), Derrick Mason (3), Muhsin Muhammad (1), and Wes Welker (1)<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>each had fewer than the five touchdowns scored by second-year Bears safety Eddie Jackson.<br />
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That's right. Eddie Jackson, who does not play offense, mind you, has scored more touchdowns in his first two seasons than 20 of the more prolific offensive players in the league's history.<br />
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Full disclosure: I'm not exactly the president of the Eddie Jackson Fan Club. His tackling<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>and, seemingly, his effort<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>sometimes leaves a lot to be desired. I mean, watch No. 39 here:<br />
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Following a Mitch Trubisky INT, Albert Wilson gets a 43-yard touchdown.<a href="https://t.co/0Z5eiXn5qj">pic.twitter.com/0Z5eiXn5qj</a></div>
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) <a href="https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1051557245023072256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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That's ... not good. Nor was it much better on Wilson's 75-yard TD later in that maddening loss to the Dolphins. And so, after some similar play during the New England game, I sent this text which has aged particularly well:<br />
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It's apparent at this point that it's me.<i> </i>Because subpar tackling or no, the good clearly outweighs the bad with Eddie Jackson. And since none of the retired players on the list scored fewer touchdowns than Casper's 53, it's guaranteed that we have at least 48 more Jackson TDs to look forward to.</div>
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<![endif]-->Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-8648860878641711972018-10-02T17:19:00.004-05:002018-10-02T18:36:14.202-05:00Worrisome? More Like Worried a Lot<br />
There's something I've been extremely concerned about with this Cubs team throughout the second half.<br />
<br />
Is it the inconsistent starting rotation? Well, on the season the starters put up just 8.9 WAR, topping only the Giants, Padres, Reds, and Marlins, not coincidentally the four worst teams in the league. That 11th place finish is quite a fall from their Jake-Arrieta-fever-dream heyday:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFoftjyjlRIxshMo-b5Z1uaR_EtrQp8qohV2_LhVT8B_tBObZ-B-3LfKyGWll6HwAnpdR1aqdSSNsMEmaEY8LcxmqtRZvjSA9Y_r9pxA3XP7neM1AESeDdONC4RbgViGsoscvSqcvAhhg/s1600/Rotation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1125" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFoftjyjlRIxshMo-b5Z1uaR_EtrQp8qohV2_LhVT8B_tBObZ-B-3LfKyGWll6HwAnpdR1aqdSSNsMEmaEY8LcxmqtRZvjSA9Y_r9pxA3XP7neM1AESeDdONC4RbgViGsoscvSqcvAhhg/s400/Rotation.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Ouch. But that's not it.<br />
<br />
How about the injury-ravaged bullpen? I mean, I <i>have </i>already posted one <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/9/14/17862422/prior-to-a-few-weeks-ago-i-never-thought-it-wood-happen-again" target="_blank">extremely well-received bullpen-related complaint</a>. And while the relievers did finish fifth in WAR (4.0), more than one-third of that total is currently unavailable with Pedro Strop (0.8) and Brandon Morrow (0.6) out.<br />
<br />
Still, that's not it, either.<br />
<br />
So it's gotta be the bats, right? Despite being of an age where, if they're not going to improve, they should at the very least not decline, five of the Cubs' seven (semi-)regulars age 26 or younger actually got worse this season.<br />
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmzzfIaY0AgUPBlX2ZZHCE0I29negs0DWdI8GllwN5oVNqmI8mh_Mf-_K-BsIkwdQIpmGMQrF9OLbPqlVQLOdeLtfEGL_MJcCbkJEEp2afbPX1CGN06M_xVwej1-sEBEl5WC6Wopq0V-0/s1600/wRC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="623" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmzzfIaY0AgUPBlX2ZZHCE0I29negs0DWdI8GllwN5oVNqmI8mh_Mf-_K-BsIkwdQIpmGMQrF9OLbPqlVQLOdeLtfEGL_MJcCbkJEEp2afbPX1CGN06M_xVwej1-sEBEl5WC6Wopq0V-0/s200/wRC.jpg" width="183" /></a></div>
<br />
*<i>Tom Hanks voice* </i>WILLLLLLLLLLLLLSON! Anyway, you can see that thanks to Javier Baez's 33-point gain, the average wRC+ only dropped three points. But the Average-No-Javy dropped by nine points, to just barely above league average.<br />
<br />
Most of this was caused by a severe power outage.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOMHH0sgYlA4ia2SP_Rp0ZAwHy_9vCuBSJTlRVjbPftGJ39wpR_i2ujMNmJG-YhUP0_lFCHsKO4fp6oZ2vpaI7w8BGSBQyvpzxtsypYgZd1UjR2p0jzfNrWUwb1vqoFDnFnxm-BuJJ8pY/s1600/ISO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="688" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOMHH0sgYlA4ia2SP_Rp0ZAwHy_9vCuBSJTlRVjbPftGJ39wpR_i2ujMNmJG-YhUP0_lFCHsKO4fp6oZ2vpaI7w8BGSBQyvpzxtsypYgZd1UjR2p0jzfNrWUwb1vqoFDnFnxm-BuJJ8pY/s200/ISO.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Every single non-Baez returning player—even Ben Zobrist, who actually saw his wRC+ jump by a whopping 41 points (even more than Baez's!)—had their ISO drop from last year, by an average of 50 points. That's, uh, significant. For context, almost all of Baez offensive breakout can be attributed to an increase in power, as seen in both his HR/FB (up to 24.3% from 19.7 a year ago) and the resultant increased ISO (also buoyed by a career best 22.1% line-drive rate). Baez's ISO increased 57 points this year. Essentially, the average Cub regular lost as much power as Baez gained.<br />
<br />
Double ouch. And yet, we still haven't hit on it. But it starts with this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxaddhwYQKoVvhPrdWANNkugwLVq3HyLM0Xm4eF_lfnQipBnogHKbtCjMpqvnr2DR8Vds9og43H_YKcDKcLFB9aKSEWiowS0O1jZ-xSzw9hqKSOUJC5MPWsyFBlyM1ijmctQCXIc6-ujU/s1600/Standings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="750" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxaddhwYQKoVvhPrdWANNkugwLVq3HyLM0Xm4eF_lfnQipBnogHKbtCjMpqvnr2DR8Vds9og43H_YKcDKcLFB9aKSEWiowS0O1jZ-xSzw9hqKSOUJC5MPWsyFBlyM1ijmctQCXIc6-ujU/s320/Standings.jpg" width="288" /></a></div>
<br />
Those are first half records on the left, second half on the right. And the Cubs, who ended the first half with a .591 winning percentage, <b>plummeted all the way down to a .580 winning percentage in the second half</b>. That 11-point plunge can only mean one thing: they are clearly terrible and we might as well welcome them to they're "doom!"<br />
<br />
Damn that was a long way to go to sneak in a Killface reference. Because by wins and losses, the Cubs have basically been the same team, although they did go from the best record in the NL in the first half to the fourth-best in the second. But take a closer look at the first half standings, this time with runs scored / allowed and the associated expected win-loss records:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcTPhjN1PExmNiD2iivE7jxLLW0PQ64tOeHxXXPNxZteSYoum5rIqJpaFbOtBINGGZOWopw4EKc_xFOYD3o-s-WL67c-7rFKTcaUbeQyy-gurlQfwUuz3jcELQUto45WQ7rL_qcKZofPg/s1600/1stHalf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="750" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcTPhjN1PExmNiD2iivE7jxLLW0PQ64tOeHxXXPNxZteSYoum5rIqJpaFbOtBINGGZOWopw4EKc_xFOYD3o-s-WL67c-7rFKTcaUbeQyy-gurlQfwUuz3jcELQUto45WQ7rL_qcKZofPg/s320/1stHalf.jpg" width="302" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
In the first half, the Cubs had the best record, but were also quite nearly the league's unluckiest team in terms of run differential, as they underperformed their expected win total by three. They then followed it up with this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTMoPuqf9-SRNqAbgtvfGSXWA4u8rrYkUTa7jOxDxY3qBArWtJ04su4nqclvjgasmkBkskJEdQZKCWbJlVWRNzJwl7M-YR_XzHs-lxixZPketUHkZeoSnKo_CNGi1GOHGEhS1T8Sa-kxg/s1600/2ndHalf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="750" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTMoPuqf9-SRNqAbgtvfGSXWA4u8rrYkUTa7jOxDxY3qBArWtJ04su4nqclvjgasmkBkskJEdQZKCWbJlVWRNzJwl7M-YR_XzHs-lxixZPketUHkZeoSnKo_CNGi1GOHGEhS1T8Sa-kxg/s320/2ndHalf.jpg" width="302" /></a></div>
<br />
I've sorted by Pythagorean expectancy, where the Cubs were the 10th-best team in the National League in the second half. While based on how the last few days have gone it might not have seemed like it, the Cubs were exceptionally lucky in the second half. The luckiest team in the entire league, in fact, and by a pretty substantial margin. And that is what has worried me the most: Since the All-Star break, the Cubs have the underpinnings of a decidedly average team.<br />
<br />
Now, here's the beauty of it all: This team still won 95 games! They (essentially) tied for the best record in the National League! They've made the playoffs for the fourth straight year! Their run of success is completely unprecedented in my time on the planet, and, quite frankly, we've all been spoiled by it. Because despite the unreliable rotation, the thin bullpen, and the regressing bats, this is still baseball, and the Cubs have a shot to win the whole damn thing. And given that they've already won one more World Series than I ever thought I'd see in my lifetime, I'll most certainly take it. Worries and all.Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-69047613256838573242018-09-14T17:37:00.000-05:002018-09-24T15:55:36.099-05:00Prior to a few weeks ago, I never thought it wood happen again<br />
In what's news to literally no one at this point, Dusty Baker absolutely
abused Kerry Wood and (especially) Mark Prior down the stretch of the
2003 season. I mean, just look at this insanity:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfYJGyzmajTpQJybmC30LcOm_cdRrbwNY4cTa2pIhEALNeAQnMy_BOQF2qSUqNrBQlUpDC7789xwHC5L0IfcVGzJse1iiY0GfTYZcS3OmekinVslDCqcpTRjal6USlqAhCsc_PCMXALvg/s1600/PriorWood.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="1600" height="73" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfYJGyzmajTpQJybmC30LcOm_cdRrbwNY4cTa2pIhEALNeAQnMy_BOQF2qSUqNrBQlUpDC7789xwHC5L0IfcVGzJse1iiY0GfTYZcS3OmekinVslDCqcpTRjal6USlqAhCsc_PCMXALvg/s400/PriorWood.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
While pitch counts hadn't gone completely mainstream as we were still in
the heart of the
These-Nerds-and-Their-Damn-Computers-Are-Ruining-the-Game Era, plenty of
people were rightly outraged at the time. And thankfully, in the
relatively short amount of time since, we have made so much progress
that there is a zero percent chance of something like that ever
happening again.<br />
<br />
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph3">
Ummm. Well...</div>
<br />
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph4">
Allow me to rephrase: There is a zero percent chance of a manager overworking two young starters like that again. But there <i>is </i>something
similar happening right now, a mere 15 years later. Right here in
Chicago, too. Because except for the future value of the assets
involved, what Joe Maddon is doing to his bullpen is just as
unconscionable as what Dusty Baker did to Wood and Prior in 2003. I
mean, just look at this insanity:</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6CIiA56jhHANd97eQ9EXN4uWDf_DkAI74h_3qUeJWM-XLnbmcXjkXihP-98lIif_zc3tOxrRXVhVn-8piLA5UEx2V8ekNmgp2Wt7ftQ3cqDxXiY7jyLhHyX9uqP5XEIx_y7kWpb_Kk4k/s1600/UsageChart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="664" data-original-width="1600" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6CIiA56jhHANd97eQ9EXN4uWDf_DkAI74h_3qUeJWM-XLnbmcXjkXihP-98lIif_zc3tOxrRXVhVn-8piLA5UEx2V8ekNmgp2Wt7ftQ3cqDxXiY7jyLhHyX9uqP5XEIx_y7kWpb_Kk4k/s400/UsageChart.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph6">
Joe Maddon has pitched Jesse
Chavez, Steve Cishek, and Justin Wilson six times each in the last
eight games, spanning nine days. Or, if you prefer: Of the seven days
the Cubs have actually played games, each has pitched on all but one of
them. (Meanwhile, lazy bones Carl Edwards, Jr. has been off twice, the
goldbricker. Twice!) This is simply not enough rest, and someone is
going to get hurt.</div>
<br />
Someone, that is, besides Pedro Strop.<br />
<br />
I started writing this post before Strop's injury, which was a somewhat
fluky thing not related to being an abused bullpen arm. In fact, Strop
was among the fresher guys in the pen, because Joe has him as <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The <span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Closer</span></i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">™</span> and the Cubs, sadly, haven't had many leads of late. At the same time,
batting Strop in that situation—up 4-3, one out, bases loaded in the
tenth, where the very limits of his withered pitcher legs unaccustomed
to sprinting might potentially be *ahem* <i>strained</i>—was a result
of Joe's compulsion, as he had already burned through the four other
guys he trusts the most, with two of them (Cishek and Wilson) coming in
to get just one out.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuS_QCYlgpODYntDrDlRNOnQT4Smq831o-u2vJ_-Wodb4ZRcVvcDsCxn-qUW6VE80tEyakSxNJdH5hgxrP89nz-iZkB9Z0z_XqTFFRA74ME9WB8Mw9QmGinbyR2J6bFZB_2sBkiUTqIOg/s1600/DustyMaddon.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1580" data-original-width="912" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuS_QCYlgpODYntDrDlRNOnQT4Smq831o-u2vJ_-Wodb4ZRcVvcDsCxn-qUW6VE80tEyakSxNJdH5hgxrP89nz-iZkB9Z0z_XqTFFRA74ME9WB8Mw9QmGinbyR2J6bFZB_2sBkiUTqIOg/s400/DustyMaddon.png" width="230" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph10">
Yes, I know these games are
important. Yesterday's win was huge, as was Tuesday's. But for more
than a week now, Joe has been managing every day like it's Game 7 of
the World Series. And it's not. (Nor, if we're being honest, is that
where Joe does his best work.) Even the strongest, most durable arms
can only take so much, and these guys need more rest. Poor Jesse Chavez
has pitched 13 times in the last 20 games and hasn't had two
consecutive days off since August 22-23; he'd have more downtime if he
worked at an Amazon warehouse. And so while I generally like Joe as a
manager, he needs to start using his main arms less often and letting
them work for longer. In short, he has to start trusting them, or
there's not going to be anyone left to trust come playoff time.</div>
Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-61386114323764216892018-09-09T10:05:00.000-05:002018-09-24T15:49:38.333-05:00Mack Draft Picks Made Me Jump, Jump<br />
I know I'm a little late to the party, but as someone who considers himself to be a sports knower, I figured I should probably get my thoughts on the Khalil Mack deal on the record<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>this site has a notary on staff, right?<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>so that in the future, everyone will be clear as to just how little insight I have into this shit. <br />
<br />
Before we fully get into it, virtually every statement of value that follows should be read with the understood caveat, <i>Barring a catastrophic injury to Khalil Mack. </i>That risk is certainly a part of the equation when trading a number of players<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>even in pick form<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">—</span>for one guy, but it also seemed ridiculous to throw that in 17 different times over the course of this post.<br />
<br />
I also felt compelled to write about the trade in part because I was
surprisingly dissatisfied with the analysis of it by the normally
astute Bill Barnwell, who I regard as the best NFL writer around. From <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24544109/answering-biggest-questions-khalil-mack-trade-chicago-bears-oakland-raiders" target="_blank">Barnwell's analysis</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Teams rarely trade two net first-round picks in moving up for rookie
quarterbacks, who offer the most surplus value of any player in the
league. The moves up for Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson,
for example, included two first-round picks in a swap to move up for
one first-round pick. </i></blockquote>
Sorry, Bill, but that makes no sense. Those teams didn't trade a net of
two picks only because they got a pick instead of a player in return.
The end result was the same: both the Chiefs and the Texans traded two
first round picks to acquire one guy. While I get that acquiring a
player on a rookie contract can have a lot of value, there's also a
much greater likelihood that guy bombs out. Mack is the surest of sure
things. There's also this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikh5ZEWY8_LYbP7pfeejbrOiBaASnojdNudF0rQ-RFlEE18vd3mSiDm1ddd9IrdxqI2WiGKduyMIMNwPLqh21ybLkjeSMSbnONEcQuFSV0K2aioc_btwsej5zacVmTLYtoAzVtR0omPww/s1600/TradeSummary.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="839" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikh5ZEWY8_LYbP7pfeejbrOiBaASnojdNudF0rQ-RFlEE18vd3mSiDm1ddd9IrdxqI2WiGKduyMIMNwPLqh21ybLkjeSMSbnONEcQuFSV0K2aioc_btwsej5zacVmTLYtoAzVtR0omPww/s400/TradeSummary.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph6">
Essentially, the Bears are
getting Mack a year early. Additionally, if this trade had been
consummated on draft day like Mahomes and Watson's deals, the Bears
would have given up Roquan Smith and Kylie Fitts (plus next year's 1st
and 3rd). Instead, they keep all three for this year. Getting that
extra year of your own picks—and also, only losing a 6th next year
instead of a 3rd—PLUS AN EXTRA YEAR OF KHALIL FREAKING MACK provides
the Bears a substantial amount of surplus value. By the end of the 2020
season, the Bears will have gotten three seasons out of Mack, and the
Raiders will have gotten three seasons—two rookie, one second year—out
of Chicago's two first rounders. There is virtually no way Mack
doesn't provide the Bears far more production over the course of those
three seasons.</div>
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph6">
<br /></div>
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph7">
I intentionally chose the word <i>production </i>there, because <i>value </i>is
a much more complex concept. And here's what Barnwell had to say about
paying Mack market value as one of the premier defensive players in
the NFL:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Unless he's the Defensive Player of the Year four seasons in a row,
the Bears aren't going to get much at all in the way of surplus value on
this contract. At best, given the way the top of the defensive market
will grow, they're probably looking at $10 million to $15 million over
the next four to five years if everything breaks right. ... Paying two first-round picks for the right to possibly gain $15 million in excess value just doesn't make economic sense. </i></blockquote>
He's right, to an extent. But constructing a team is not a simple
accounting exercise, and at some point, overall talent level matters.
Even with their recently signed, market-value extensions, would Aarons
Rodgers and Donald not command a huge return if they were on the
market? Of course they would, because to win, you need impact players.
You could have a team of nothing but players on seventh-round rookie
deals who each deliver third round production, but all that "surplus
value" isn't going to win you squat. At some point, you need guys in
various spots—particularly at high-impact ones like QB or, say, edge
rusher—who are going to produce at a much higher level than others who
play their position. <br />
<br />
With that out of the way, let's move onto the picks, particularly those
in 2020, because that's what really stood out to me when I learned the
details of the deal. While I would love to know exactly what has to
happen for the Raiders 5th rounder to be included, I have been unable
to find the conditions anywhere; if you've come across that
information, please share it in the comments. Without anything to go on,
I'm going to assume the pick only conveys if Mack is unable to play a
certain number of games, meaning we should probably all be rooting for
it not to happen. Because of that assumption, I'm also looking at this
as if the Bears will not get the pick, because if they do it probably
means a poor outcome that's unlikely to be salvaged by a single Day 3
selection.<br />
<br />
To compare the various picks, I'm using Chase Stuart's more-accurate-than-Jimmy-Johnson's-version-that-he-used-to-try-to-bamboozle-stupid-front-offices-into-giving-him-a-king's-ransom-for-higher-picks <a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-nfl-draft-value-chart-part-i/" target="_blank">draft value chart</a>, which is based on five-year approximate values.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmBghtJw9mfrVJVPtW5JgTda0AJn0I-pcw9hbq_usDAor027H7BYKon6sXPvObx8tE_3QLpOMaegZj6cKUgrAtCrh5d7zksT8mCQUgIWfzJiQM9ppN7XnIeWTZNyuUycyzNgdEtcnKr2Q/s1600/StuartValues.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1039" data-original-width="790" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmBghtJw9mfrVJVPtW5JgTda0AJn0I-pcw9hbq_usDAor027H7BYKon6sXPvObx8tE_3QLpOMaegZj6cKUgrAtCrh5d7zksT8mCQUgIWfzJiQM9ppN7XnIeWTZNyuUycyzNgdEtcnKr2Q/s640/StuartValues.png" width="486" /></a></div>
<br />
I've assigned a draft position to the picks by creating tiers and then
taking the approximate average selection for each. Contenders (the 12
playoff teams) choose 21st to 32nd, so I've chosen pick 26. On the other
extreme, for the bottom 12 teams in the league, I've chosen pick 6,
while pick 16 represents a middling team. Here's what that looks like
(I've highlighted the good outcomes for the Bears in green, the bad in
red, just like a real adult business person professional work product
dashboard!):<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmmDTizNAtxQg3D_cvSflN80Wa6xACCUh5ILSn1QuJwcg_Nfa7K9NYl3BMKm4xQkfNOT7l5SsRAs8YXoIu6E-uV5-8NaFWuol1xVVTTbXD0_b3h-1zRDIDEbA9VLd_Kv2g7Om_IARnUZg/s1600/2020Picks.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="273" data-original-width="906" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmmDTizNAtxQg3D_cvSflN80Wa6xACCUh5ILSn1QuJwcg_Nfa7K9NYl3BMKm4xQkfNOT7l5SsRAs8YXoIu6E-uV5-8NaFWuol1xVVTTbXD0_b3h-1zRDIDEbA9VLd_Kv2g7Om_IARnUZg/s400/2020Picks.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Looking at the extremes, if this trade helps boost the Bears to
contender status while the Raiders struggle under Coach Hooter Ogler,
the difference between the 2nd round pick the Bears receive and the 1st
they give up will amount to a late 5th rounder. Or if you add that 2.5
points to the 3rd rounder they're giving up, it's equal to a late 2nd
round pick. And Khalil Mack for a 1st and a 6th a year from now, and a
2nd in two years is an insanely good deal.<br />
<br />
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph16">
However, if the outcomes are
reversed and the Bears continue their devolution into Brownsdom while
the Raiders recreate their Chucky glory days, then the Oakland 2nd is
nearly canceled out by the Chicago 3rd. Deducting that 1.2-point
differential basically lowers the value of the Bears first-round pick by
a single slot. Which makes the deal far less good from a value
perspective and also a massive disappointment, because the whole point
of acquiring Mack was to springboard the Bears back to relevance, not to
continue to be a steaming pile that selects near the top of the draft.</div>
<br />
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph17">
And so, whether this ends up
being a great trade or near-disaster is almost totally dependent on
Mitchell Trubisky, actually. If Trubisky is the franchise quarterback
the front office believes him to be—and don't get me wrong, I'm highly
skeptical that he is—the team will be a contender and this will end up
being a very good deal. If he's not, well ... I'll still consider it a
decent trade, but only because I am supremely confident this franchise
would have botched those picks anyway.</div>
Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-28327841999072659562018-08-25T22:27:00.000-05:002018-08-25T22:27:08.904-05:00Under Pressure, David Bote Says Let's DanceMuch was written in the aftermath of David Bote's pinch-hit "ultimate" grand slam nearly two weeks ago. (Some of it by me, although I never got my shit together enough to actually publish anything.) First time since <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/rare_feats/index.jsp?feature=ultimate_slam" target="_blank">2011</a>, or <a href="https://twitter.com/jazayerli/status/1028850083360591873" target="_blank">1996</a>, or <a href="https://twitter.com/ckamka/status/1028843917117140992?s=12" target="_blank">1936</a>, or maybe ever, depending on what criteria you use. Regardless of the exact infrequency, though, it was rare and cool and awesome.<br />
<br />
A few random items caught my eye at the time, most involving Win Probability Added (WPA). And so I started writing this piece. But my fuckheadedness got in the way, and pretty soon several days had passed and eventually I lost my window to post anything. Or so I thought, until Bote went and hit another walkoff yesterday and saved my lazy ass.<br />
<br />
So I'm back in business, baby, and here are the top WPA seasons of all-time, provided you believe that time started in 1974, when (I'm guessing) Fangraphs play-by-play data became thorough enough to make accurate calculations:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ0kk5pJTRBGIbby3gxqDCFrV-6GbDlThN_LpUxsC7Ysgv9YcQ7Z3tnEFwwC3hOEyKbo7Jazv99_J2YbNwLiGMg0SLcGCptCUtTLKIg6hbgSzmamfI8Si-cwQJnyFnSR3B_d0f0P5EvQk/s1600/WPA_Top25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="821" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ0kk5pJTRBGIbby3gxqDCFrV-6GbDlThN_LpUxsC7Ysgv9YcQ7Z3tnEFwwC3hOEyKbo7Jazv99_J2YbNwLiGMg0SLcGCptCUtTLKIg6hbgSzmamfI8Si-cwQJnyFnSR3B_d0f0P5EvQk/s640/WPA_Top25.png" width="328" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
I went 25-deep in part because HOLY SHIT Barry Bonds. He's got more than a quarter of the listed seasons, and even if you don't include the time he went all HGH on everyone's asses, he's got three years on there, which is still more than anyone else, as only Pujols and Prince Fielder(?) have two. But no, Bonds should definitely not be in the Hall of Fame for capping his career by doing something that damn near everybody else was doing.<br />
<br />
Anyway, as of today, David Bote's seasonal WPA is 1.93, which doesn't even crack the top 2000 (not a typo). Still, I've added him to the list. I've also added plate appearances, so that I could then turn WPA into a rate statistic, normalizing it over 600 PAs:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQeZT_cR9_bR4VryiYXTI_a4WQZy-VmtxR8zHzqu5Si-3BeFpHPaf1UqrkrgXRReZDyMa63Xa3VcXc5qxtgoGecVl57fctOPK2W7KvKGOgn-oz8oDCpOiv2uz10EdAsrNLvbDPc1OdS4Y/s1600/WPA_600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1162" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQeZT_cR9_bR4VryiYXTI_a4WQZy-VmtxR8zHzqu5Si-3BeFpHPaf1UqrkrgXRReZDyMa63Xa3VcXc5qxtgoGecVl57fctOPK2W7KvKGOgn-oz8oDCpOiv2uz10EdAsrNLvbDPc1OdS4Y/s640/WPA_600.png" width="464" /></a></div>
<br />
On a per-plate-appearance basis, David Bote's WPA is topped only by the meta-human version of Barry Bonds. Now on-pace-for stats are always kinda bullshit, but WPA's inclusion of negative events makes it especially so; a bases-loaded double play in the ninth while trailing by 1 would wipe away <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/tools/wpa-inquirer" target="_blank">more than a quarter of Bote's total</a>. But this is still insane! Several of the seasons listed are among the most legendary offensive years in all of baseball history, and Bote, with his very-nice-but-hardly-spectacular 127 wRC+, has been so incredibly clutch that he's right there with them! Why are you not freaking out more?!?!? Should I not have said on-pace-for stats are bullshit?<br />
<br />
I shouldn't have said on-pace-for stats are bullshit.<br />
<br />
But seriously, they are.Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-51564689064005064562018-06-28T18:50:00.000-05:002018-06-28T19:04:11.648-05:00Going to WAR with Previous MVPsWhat do Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Nellie Fox, Robin Yount, Dennis Eckersley, and Vladimir Guerrero all have in common? That's right, they're all in the Hall of Fame.<br />
<br />
But there's something else, or at least there'd better be if I'm going to wring an entire post out of it. And that is this: Each was also named AL MVP in a season when they put up 6 WAR or less (per Fangraphs model).<br />
<br />
So why is that significant? Well, at exactly the halfway point of the Angels' season, Mike Trout is at 6.1 fWAR.*<br />
<br />
<i>* The facts around this post were shaping up to be even more awe-inspiring about a week ago, before Trout sprained his finger, when he was slashing .332/.464/.688 and sitting at the same 6.1 fWAR. While the injury hasn't kept him out of the lineup, it has relegated him to DHing, where it's significantly harder to add value, especially so when you're mired in a (likely) sore-finger-related slump. Over his last 6 games at DH, he's gone 5-for-23 with two walks and nine strikeouts, shaving just shy of 50 points off his OPS since the injury. He's also somehow gone two weeks without an extra base hit, which has to be a record for him.</i><br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXgU3t9_vPloGNFQA2CBVIPoGmirquyhy1pQvhlFgE51pVTqWYhE3ePexwUS86_GC8w9foQXkxGBu_jt2367f2I4smk_JfN2r25ADlFVuD2eLT6vLHpKyAKD89i6fdTWt2zZJCGv7homo/s1600/Trout_Finger.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1172" data-original-width="1500" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXgU3t9_vPloGNFQA2CBVIPoGmirquyhy1pQvhlFgE51pVTqWYhE3ePexwUS86_GC8w9foQXkxGBu_jt2367f2I4smk_JfN2r25ADlFVuD2eLT6vLHpKyAKD89i6fdTWt2zZJCGv7homo/s400/Trout_Finger.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Anyway, 6.1 is a not-all-that anomalously low fWAR total for an MVP, although every winner since 2007 has surpassed it. Here's the complete list of MVPs that didn't for both leagues, since integration:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2E-0tDKSJu9DBt7K8ctv75lAaGKLl6jyKheTVvCizyDyQ-fdxwTS3gZ5zRf2DeTkIT-R-3mg1HrT92DyvNS9KekhoPT4d5_ExsV158DnsU6fUAkpcaa6GFKXfcfPEC_UvZmQ_viFR-bs/s1600/Trout_MVP.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="946" data-original-width="882" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2E-0tDKSJu9DBt7K8ctv75lAaGKLl6jyKheTVvCizyDyQ-fdxwTS3gZ5zRf2DeTkIT-R-3mg1HrT92DyvNS9KekhoPT4d5_ExsV158DnsU6fUAkpcaa6GFKXfcfPEC_UvZmQ_viFR-bs/s640/Trout_MVP.png" width="593" /></a></div>
<br />
Some notes:<br />
<ul>
<li>Vladimir Guerrero's MVP season was actually his best as an Angel and fourth-best of his career. In his age-26 season, Trout has already surpassed him in career WAR (61 to 54.3). </li>
<li>It somehow felt like a disservice to include Mike Schmidt and Mickey Mantle, as both are among the game's all-time greats and led their league in WAR four and five times, respectively. In a weird coincidence, their sub-6 MVP years were each of their 11th-best seasons, with Schmidt boasting nine 7+ WAR years -- including the strike-shortened 1981 season, when he put up 7.8 WAR in just 102 games -- and three 9+ WAR ones, while Mantle had four years over 9, including two over 11 (he was MVP in both). </li>
<li>Yogi Berra's career high WAR was 6.4, the only time in his career that he topped Trout's current half-season mark. He's only one of the three-or-so greatest catchers of all time. </li>
<li>Between Rollie Fingers, Willie Hernandez and Jim(?) Konstanty, it's clear that no reliever should have ever been named MVP, and Konstanty's 1950 win <i>with less than 1 WAR </i>has to be the all-time worst. He finished his career with 3 WAR, just less than half of Trout's current season total. </li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiREB0DBi0-AZ13ioIxC4BJ0jVbAISCiVopoQsAfDa0gOWw7KjmwJxpJwfNVsRMRn42GEBSXDq11iJnmgiDIUeLPEgOJKHf9d0nGbFJDMeboRsob_twEwCZKe3UzP_nrGZ2YZQdqG3zADk/s1600/Konstanty_Ebay.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1360" data-original-width="1500" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiREB0DBi0-AZ13ioIxC4BJ0jVbAISCiVopoQsAfDa0gOWw7KjmwJxpJwfNVsRMRn42GEBSXDq11iJnmgiDIUeLPEgOJKHf9d0nGbFJDMeboRsob_twEwCZKe3UzP_nrGZ2YZQdqG3zADk/s400/Konstanty_Ebay.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Other Trout items of interest: <br />
<ul>
<li>This <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/05/mike-trout-war-hall-of-famers-los-angeles-angels-stargell-greenberg-whitey-ford-mlb" target="_blank">recurring USA Today feature</a>, which chronicles the Hall of Famers that Trout has surpassed in career WAR each month. </li>
<li><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mike-trout-is-now-an-average-hall-of-famer/" target="_blank">This Fangraphs post</a> from May, where it's shown that Trout has already provided the career value of the average Hall of Famer. </li>
<li>Finally, this got a fair amount of play in the last two weeks after being in <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23800260/how-mike-trout-stacks-mlb-greats-first-1000-games" target="_blank">this ESPN article</a>, but it's still so mind-blowing that I'm going to share it again: The longest streak of games in which Trout has failed to reach base in his career is two. 2! After over 1,000 games, he's never gone three games in a row without reaching base. That's absolutely insane. Just like Mike Trout.
</li>
</ul>
Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-56113618512804540472018-04-28T15:14:00.001-05:002018-04-30T16:05:53.495-05:00Keeping Pace with the Bears' Draft<i>EDITOR'S NOTE: This is my first Bears-related post since <a href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2010/04/mr-skias-post-draft-ideas.html" target="_blank">this post-draft analysis</a> the year that <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WrigMa99.htm" target="_blank">Lieutenant Wrong</a> was their top pick (2010), and the first time I've written about anything since 2012. Which is to say that I'm out of practice and I've got A LOT to say, so what this post lacks in quality, it makes up for in quantity. </i> <br />
<br />
I am not a Ryan Pace fan. Not at all. In fact, it's quite the opposite. (Which makes me a Ryan Pace naf, I suppose.) The point is, I don't think Pace is a competent general manager, which was further confirmed this offseason with his <a href="https://247sports.com/nfl/bears/Article/Bears-feel-Holdman-is-worth-the-money-104035681" target="_blank">Warrick Holdmanning</a> of both Kyle Fuller and Cameron Meredith. <br />
<br />
Tendering issues notwithstanding, the main reason I know Pace is a bad GM is his handling of his first three drafts. Or, more specifically, his short-sighted compulsion to trade up.<br />
<br />
So that is my personal backdrop leading up to this year's draft, one in which I desperately wanted the Bears to trade down in the first round if Quenton Nelson wasn't still on the board, which history told me he absolutely would not be. Because every year, there's some stud they are consistently linked to in mock drafts that I -- and just about every fan -- am dying for them to get. And every single goddamn year, that player is gone by the time the Bears pick. This phenomenon dates back at least to 1999, when the Bears, picking seventh, were forever tied to Chicago native Donovan McNabb, only to watch him shoot up the draft board at the last minute. And it really became epidemic in recent years, when Aaron Donald and Leonard Williams each went one lousy pick before the Bears' selection in back-to-back drafts -- the latter Ryan Pace's first -- a development that, combined with the disastrous Kevin White pick, likely informed his "strategy" over the next two.<br />
<br />
Which has, quite simply, been absolutely terrible.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4gt6S3eLlEGIsdSKTp_NGGsHrymrpv_YbZOUrCeAD7oNapW8moG7JuosGQzwgANhXBO8D4FiljKx1FEZf25qukeBl78fOWPzdpnweKl7qrqbt4ln8gH-OIaGZbainmWYgimIZhLjhGNM/s1600/DonaldRams.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="750" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4gt6S3eLlEGIsdSKTp_NGGsHrymrpv_YbZOUrCeAD7oNapW8moG7JuosGQzwgANhXBO8D4FiljKx1FEZf25qukeBl78fOWPzdpnweKl7qrqbt4ln8gH-OIaGZbainmWYgimIZhLjhGNM/s320/DonaldRams.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
The key to drafting well is drafting often, because despite the league's insane scouting apparatus, the draft is still a total crapshoot. So consistently trading up is a losing strategy, simply because you are picking less. Giving up multiple picks for a single guy when your roster is several impact players short of being competitive is an especially poor gambit. And when you are already picking ahead of the consensus ranking of the player you are targeting, trading up is inexcusable.<br />
<br />
All of this was clanking around my head when Bradley Chubb ended up going to the Broncos. I immediately thought, <i>Fucking Broncos. That shit would never happen to the Bears.</i> As I continued to ruminate, I realized the thought was true in a way I hadn't actually intended, and which had absolutely nothing to do with the franchises' relative luck. Envision a situation where the Bears were picking fifth and had, well, a chubby for Chubb. If he was somehow still on the board after the first three picks, the Bears would've thrown their second rounder and a 2019 third at Cleveland because "<a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-bears-ryan-pace-mitch-trubisky-nfl-draft-20170427-story.html" target="_blank">there are times when you’ve got to be aggressive, and when you have conviction on a guy, you can’t sit on your hands</a>." The Broncos, meanwhile, must not "<a href="http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/28/ryan-pace-if-you-want-to-be-great-you-cant-sit-on-your-hands/" target="_blank">want to be great</a>," because they passively waited to make their pick, and they still got the guy they wanted without unnecessarily blowing a ton of additional draft capital, the dumbasses.<br />
<br />
This is the second consecutive year that, god help me as an avowed John Elway hater dating back 35 years now, I've cast an envious eye towards the Broncos' braintrust. Because as god-awful as the Trubisky trade was -- and god, was it awful -- what really showed Pace's cluelessness last year was when he pissed away a sixth round pick to move up five slots in the fourth to draft Eddie Jackson. Look, Eddie Jackson turned out to be fine, but there was no reason whatsoever to give up an additional pick for a guy that every other team had already passed on three different times. The likelihood of him being gone was small, and even if he was, the delta between him and any of several dozens of players still available is not great enough to justify the cost.<br />
<br />
So again, contrast that with the Broncos. Here's John fucking Elway after last year's draft, speaking about a guy they were targeting.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
We were holding our breath these last few picks hoping to get Michigan TE Jake Butt. A top-notch TE we're fortunate to select in the 5th.</div>
— John Elway (@johnelway) <a href="https://twitter.com/johnelway/status/858383032629288960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 29, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />
Notice they stayed put and hoped what they wanted would happen, as opposed to blowing another pick to guarantee it did. Because there's no goddamn need to do it. No one at that juncture can possibly be valued so highly that it's worth surrendering another lottery ticket to acquire him.<br />
<br />
Which brings us, mercifully, to the 2018 draft, when a mere 800 words in, I get to the point of this post. Even though I wanted Nelson, part of me was relieved when he went to the Colts at 6, because at least Pace hadn't blown three future firsts to trade up to get him. (Small victories, people.) And so with Nelson gone, the Bears should've been in full trade down mode, because they entered the draft with two glaring needs in my eyes: interior offensive line and wide receiver -- the latter due to Pace's own shortsightedness re: Meredith -- or three, if you want to include linebacker.<br />
<br />
I don't know whether or not Pace was actually trying to move down, but those efforts would've undoubtedly been undercut by the Bucs trading down the pick before them, as it removed both an interested team and one of the QB options from the table. That's not to say that they couldn't have pulled it off, as the Niners did two picks later, but it certainly changed the market in terms of potential partners and the subsequent return. And at that point, taking the best player on the board in Roquan Smith, who also happened to fit a position of need, was a solid move.<br />
<br />
But it still left the Bears with two gaping holes going into Round 2. They filled the one on the o-line with C James Daniels at 39, which everyone seems to agree was a good pick; ESPN, for instance, had Daniels slotted at 18th overall, higher than Lions first-round center Frank Ragnow.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjABAnc_pg1-ln7LiQvmVlPGV9SzRqhwTaobLx6NBqo4t792QjW1hXMbvfHhRP3qDwzuUU6WKxuH3KwJwUq0TYRCzxXxzSC4m0GzyN4QEFsbFAsOTABdeXwZUeDysx2JROXfgghF4EwVxQ/s1600/HandSitter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="750" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjABAnc_pg1-ln7LiQvmVlPGV9SzRqhwTaobLx6NBqo4t792QjW1hXMbvfHhRP3qDwzuUU6WKxuH3KwJwUq0TYRCzxXxzSC4m0GzyN4QEFsbFAsOTABdeXwZUeDysx2JROXfgghF4EwVxQ/s320/HandSitter.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Now the Bears were faced with watching 65 players -- more than two full rounds -- come off the board before they got another chance to grab a receiver (at 105). And after three WRs quickly went off the board at 40, 44, and 47, Pace knew for certain they were going to left with slim pickings. Hence, the trade up for Anthony Miller, a player I really liked coming into the draft.<br />
<br />
So I actually think Pace did well in terms of the three players he selected. But the cost, yet again, was just too high. And I'm guessing he wouldn't have felt compelled to sacrifice next year's second rounder - which, if their QB doesn't develop like they are assuming he does, could basically be almost as valuable as a late first - if he hadn't stupidly given up their third round selection (for the second consecutive year, I might add) to move up one lousy pick to select Mitchell Trubisky. When the worst case scenario then was some other team trading with the 49ers to select Trubisky -- even though he wasn't really the consensus top QB, let alone the highest rated player on the board -- leaving you with -- <i>gasp!</i> -- Deshaun Watson to fill your gaping, Mike Glennon-sized hole at quarterback.<br />
<br />
But the draft is supposed to be a time for optimism, so I don't want to exclusively be a cornflakes-pisser. And there is some good news, in addition to the three solid draftees: Pace is clearly going all-in on this year, which means he likely has gotten the impression that the team needs to show marked improvement or he's out of a job. And if the Bears stink again this year, not having a second round pick won't be the greatest thing for their 2019 draft, but no longer having Ryan Pace at the helm just might be.Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-4790458359301641002012-06-20T08:46:00.000-05:002018-04-30T09:21:06.635-05:00Mr. SKIA's Bad Ideas*, Vol. I: Fighting a Red-Light Camera Ticket<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-style: italic;">* By popular demand -- okay, one person kind of semi-intimated that she'd like me to write about topics that are non-sports related -- and to celebrate the one-year anniversary of this blog, I present to you a real-life story from my real-life life. </span></div>
<br />
For years now, I've been telling anyone who would listen (and believe me, there's not many of those people left) that there was no way I would ever pay any sort of automatically-generated traffic ticket, keeping in line with my distinguished record of self-important, half-assed antiestablishmentism. I would make my usual poorly-formulated arguments based on a vague familiarity with constitutionality -- <span style="font-style: italic;">It's a violation of due process!</span> and the like -- and would contend that I was actually hoping to get one so that I could fight it to the bitter end.<br />
<br />
The end comes quickly, as it turns out.<br />
<br />
Bitterly too.<br />
<br />
A few months ago, Mrs. SKIA (we've been a one-car family for almost two years now) received a violation notice in the mail. I'm sorry, make that a <span style="font-weight: bold;">VIOLATION</span> notice, because that's how ominously it was written on the envelope.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQDCJVCRQ7K96ALsYiBAFf1hmF-G0IH-g7juIJ4a4gAVlmT_QRVlNqG-q9kW7D4fYHUKcpLGMjaIOWn1jjdYfJ9lZCoZS982MJnHGCjWt4FpPll0XIFD-GEByKIeUyqizIyuTp_LvQ04E/s1600-h/Harlem_Ogden.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" target="_blank"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5445018022907283602" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQDCJVCRQ7K96ALsYiBAFf1hmF-G0IH-g7juIJ4a4gAVlmT_QRVlNqG-q9kW7D4fYHUKcpLGMjaIOWn1jjdYfJ9lZCoZS982MJnHGCjWt4FpPll0XIFD-GEByKIeUyqizIyuTp_LvQ04E/s400/Harlem_Ogden.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 227px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a>According to the <span style="font-weight: bold;">VIOLATION</span> notice, there was a video of our often-calamitous rolling-right-turn-on-red transgression available at www.RedLightViolations.com. Shockingly, each time we tried to watch it -- and regardless of the seemingly infinite number of recommended software/codecs I downloaded -- we got an error message and could never see our alleged misfeasance. I, of course, took this to mean that it was entirely unprovable.<br />
<br />
Given my oft-stated stance on these things and my continued unwillingness to just throw away a hundred dollars, I decided to fight it. And not via the milquetoasty <span style="font-weight: bold;">Contest by Mail </span>option -- I have no faith whatsoever in the power of my words to persuade -- but by choosing to <span style="font-weight: bold;">Request a Trial</span>, as I felt like I could be oh-so-compelling in person. Plus I wanted to make it as costly as possible for the dickwads trying to screw me.<br />
<br />
And so I researched (about an hour ahead of my scheduled court date, naturally) how to fight these tickets. Unfortunately, everything I found was either A. In regards to California law (and Illinois is still stubbornly refusing to be in California); or B. Said they were basically impossible to beat.<br />
<br />
Undeterred, I set out for Mrs. SKIA's 3 p.m. court date -- she has a real job and can't be bothered to pursue such trivialities -- at 2:53. My original plan was to walk, but in a development strangely out of character, I was running late, so I had to drive the 3/4 of a mile down the street to the hard-earned-tax-payer-money-extraction zone, or as it is more commonly known, the courthouse (which is really just a room in the police station.)<br />
<br />
As I strode haughtily into the courtroom, Judge William H. Rainonmyparade (note: not his real name) announced, "All of you are here -- well, 99% of you, anyway -- because you didn't come to a complete stop when making a right turn on red," immediately neutering my typically-false cocksurety, which had been entirely predicated upon 'Well<span style="font-style: italic;"> I</span> didn't run a red light; <span style="font-style: italic;">I</span> was making a right turn.'<br />
<br />
Stripped of my greatest weapon -- and, yes, I'm so misguidedly delusional that I thought <span style="font-style: italic;">I was turning right</span> was an unimpeachable defense -- I glumly listened to people being called to the bench only to have their justifications and entreaties fall on deaf ears.<br />
<br />
However, about 10 people in, the summoned guy flashed a badge to the bench. I couldn't hear what he was saying, but Judge Ruth Bader Favoritesplayer responded, "Well how would that go over in Chicago?" The guy -- apparently a city cop -- answered in a way the judge must have found pleasing, because he said something in low tones and let the guy walk out of the courtroom without stopping at the currency vacuum set up in the back. A murmur arose from the rest of us. "Mur-mur," we said.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaIv8gAhCxi1pDwAiYhFh_6PDAMj7p_H-3hGatTptjwGtPETCD_hXVG0cgmtmXxphPl_epvVrUEzLr31LIJZQdrs2gdKEPiabMsUUqLy4CWlYKSVDmbYuMad5kxwO7ag3zyyTy-iWa6H4/s1600-h/DayCourt_Big.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" target="_blank"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5447888768793549458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaIv8gAhCxi1pDwAiYhFh_6PDAMj7p_H-3hGatTptjwGtPETCD_hXVG0cgmtmXxphPl_epvVrUEzLr31LIJZQdrs2gdKEPiabMsUUqLy4CWlYKSVDmbYuMad5kxwO7ag3zyyTy-iWa6H4/s400/DayCourt_Big.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 400px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 254px;" /></a>The next person was called up, and in the face of the video evidence -- Did I mention there was a big screen TV facing the judge, and the court lackeys queued up the incident for the judge and accused to see? -- proclaimed with a heavy Latin-American accent that his car had, in fact, stopped. Said it more than once, and forcefully so. But Judge Sandra Day O'Yourefullofcrap wasn't buying, and after some back-and-forth found him guilty. At this point, the guy went off; I'm going to quote him directly here, because you weren't there and I defy you to dispute the accuracy of my transcription:<br />
<blockquote style="color: #006600;">
I guess if you flash a badge, then it's okay. You're going to take a hundred dollars from me in this economy? It takes me a week to make $100 right now! This isn't right.</blockquote>
The judge tried to explain himself, but the guy kept interrupting him with either the badge comment or the not-right thing, until Thurgood Marshalllaw finally said, "If you don't let me finish, I'm going to find you in contempt of court. I let you say your peace, and if you don't stop interrupting me, you're going to go to jail."<br />
<br />
Now, I don't think this poor fellow had a very good grasp of the machinations of the judicial branch of his adopted nation, because here he got really upset and really, <span style="font-style: italic;">really</span> loud. "You're going to throw me in jail for a ticket! You just let that guy off! This is bull-."<br />
<br />
Thankfully the defendant thought better of appending that with <span style="font-style: italic;">shit</span>, and his father -- who I don't think spoke English, and I'm guessing was the actual accused red-light violator -- then began ushering him out of the courtroom, although you could still hear him lamenting his fate and the unfairness of it all in the adjoining entry area, to the extent that the court-appointed officer was sent out in order to shut him up/shoo him away/throw his ass in jail. But it was then that I began to accept how fruitless trying to fight this thing would be. They'd have video evidence that our car slowed to 3 mph instead of zero, I'd sound just as pitiful as that guy, and I'd be hopelessly screwed.<br />
<br />
I tell you, I stood up a broken man when I heard Mrs. SKIA's name called, but as I walked up to the bench, some of my cockcertainty started to return. <span style="font-style: italic;">I can do this</span>, I thought.<span style="font-style: italic;"> I'm smart, I'm charming, I'm convincing, I'm</span> ...<br />
<br />
Dead wrong.<br />
<br />
That thought occurred to me in the midst of what I fancied as a remarkably compelling argument. I began by pleading not guilty -- telling my new bro Oliver Wendell Homes about my video-based internet travails, and that I could not in good conscience say I was guilty of something I couldn't see -- and then I was shown the video, in which I (or the missus) clearly did not come close to stopping.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>
Mr. SKIA: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">Yes, but I remember there being an green arrow.</span><br />
<br />
Judge: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">But there is no arrow there.</span><br />
<br />
Mr. SKIA: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">Well where would the arrow be?</span><br />
<br />
Judge: <span style="font-style: italic;">(pointing)</span> <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">In that area there. And there is no arrow.</span><br />
<br />
Mr. SKIA: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">But there's so much light behind it. How do I know it's just not getting washed out?</span><br />
<br />
Judge: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">Because I've seen the arrow before, and I'm telling you that it's not there.</span><br />
<br />
Mr. SKIA: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">But how do I know the camera was functioning properly? Can you show me a video from that night with the green arrow on?</span><br />
<br />
Judge: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">No, but it never turns green in this video.</span><br />
<br />
Mr. SKIA: <span style="font-style: italic;">(more to the A/V tool controlling the feed)</span> <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">Can't you queue another one up that shows the arrow?</span><br />
<br />
Judge: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">No, I'm telling you it's not there.</span><br />
<br />
Mr. SKIA: <span style="color: rgb(0 , 102 , 0);">I understand that, but how do I know ...</span></blockquote>
And it was here that I thought to myself, <span style="font-style: italic;">What the hell am I doing?</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">They don't have to prove jackshit to me.</span> I was acting like I could just deny it forever, and as long as I never capitulated, I wouldn't have to pay. I realized at that moment the utter futility of my whole approach, so I abruptly shifted gears, adding, "I mean, not that it matters what I think, you're the one that's important."<br />
<br />
Now I meant this as a sign of respect for the court and this man's position. But Charles Evans Hugestickuphisbutt, perhaps inflamed by previous insolence, instead took offense. "Now hold on there. Don't just say that. There's a reason you can have this trial, because I am not the only one that matters. You're wrong if you say that."<br />
<br />
And at that point, I just gave in. I had a semi-pissed off judge, had lost any chance of garnering sympathy, and didn't even care that my attempt at prostration was totally misinterpreted. There was no burden of proof to show me the camera picking up a properly-functioning arrow, so I just wanted to cut my check and get the hell out of there. Judge Byron "Whizzer" Whitenoise said a few more things that I don't even remember, and I dejectedly shuffled off to fork over the hundred bucks.<br />
<br />
I suppose I should have realized that <span style="font-style: italic;">You can't beat City Hall</span> didn't become a common refrain by accident; that shit's true, man. But I did learn one very important thing, a lesson I'll take with me for the rest of my life, and one I hope you will too: You can passive-aggressively stick it to City Hall via check ...<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYmvInrME3HOc1x56MXOE70pBkQZEy4DXA5a_H7FGWOBcEbyQo5hH7VRIkXdSWl5YlV1HfPTJqOyV618s3wDAx5pK5Jx4dx0Kwan6t9tRrOgfv2fEOecV0QWg3-LQFlasjZnQF5tbON3k/s1600-h/CheckPost.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" target="_blank"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5445018010502399090" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYmvInrME3HOc1x56MXOE70pBkQZEy4DXA5a_H7FGWOBcEbyQo5hH7VRIkXdSWl5YlV1HfPTJqOyV618s3wDAx5pK5Jx4dx0Kwan6t9tRrOgfv2fEOecV0QWg3-LQFlasjZnQF5tbON3k/s400/CheckPost.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 206px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-58824946310441544042012-06-11T23:09:00.009-05:002012-06-12T14:48:46.506-05:00Jorge Soler-ing Some Grievances* <span style="font-style: italic;">This originally began as a comment on the Trib's website until it quickly grew too long (shocking!) and I remembered that, whether it's writing them or reading them, comments on websites are ruining my life.</span><br />I love the Cubs' signing of Jorge Soler. Love it despite the fact that I have precisely zero idea if he will pan out. None. I've never even seen so much as a 3-second video clip of him playing, so I haven't a clue if he's actually any good. However, he was in high demand (generally an encouraging sign), and this is exactly the sort of low-cost move the Cubs should be making at this stage in the game: For about what the Rockies paid career-.345-wOBA Michael Cuddyer for his age 33 to 35 seasons ($31.5 million), the Cubs locked up Soler - even with the potential for the arbitration-based salary outs - at least through his late 20s.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvRGGf-8Qir3sUWVqHbE_IN0eSoxxxoFXi1GAQbScSXX1Et14IdhSaNqA7hAR3l8FwGPOFLkthOeMfqmGBDDFb5s8y3ko4NF6nsGfmy-NfMbZJe_t95f_xDG_ptaViu8NPVDFoggWKJFk/s1600/Ynoa.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5753230581046117618" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvRGGf-8Qir3sUWVqHbE_IN0eSoxxxoFXi1GAQbScSXX1Et14IdhSaNqA7hAR3l8FwGPOFLkthOeMfqmGBDDFb5s8y3ko4NF6nsGfmy-NfMbZJe_t95f_xDG_ptaViu8NPVDFoggWKJFk/s400/Ynoa.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 310px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" border="0" /></a>There was, however, one thing I didn't like: the incredibly lazy and uninformed analysis of the signing in the <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0612-cubs-soler--20120612,0,715063.story" target="_blank"><span style="font-style: italic;">Chicago Tribune</span></a>. To wit:<br /><blockquote>"The Cubs believe Soler's age and talent level merit a longer deal than usual, and gives them time to develop him and still have six years in the majors before free agency. The contract includes clauses that allow Soler to opt for arbitration instead of his allotted salary during arbitration-eligible years, though he can't leave for free agency until after 2020."</blockquote>I can't tell if this is just written in an unintentionally poor, misleading way, or if it's just blatantly misinformed. Because regardless of how long Soler is in the minors -- even if it's seven seasons (or longer) -- the Cubs would still control him for six more years before he reached free agency. Those are the rules of baseball, and it doesn't matter how long Soler's contract is, any more than it did for Jeff Samardzija, who didn't just become a free agent because his original five-year Major League deal expired after last season; free agency is still governed by the Collective Bargaining Agreement, which says a player must have six years of ML service before becoming eligible. However, if Soler were to somehow make it to the majors say in 2013, he would be under contract and therefore unable to leave via free agency even after six seasons.<br />For the sake of accuracy, the last sentence should read "though he can't leave through free agency until after 2020 <span style="font-style: italic;">at the earliest</span>." That might seem to be the picking of the tiniest of nits, but the contract is extraordinarily long because of its appeal to Soler and his sense of security -- 9 years and $30 million will tend to give one peace of mind -- and has as much to do with giving him development time before free agency as it does with Benito Santiago.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA5U6nv34xz4f_chZbmljQbnS0Dggz1yqiikwr7ytd1Lvz2TvUjxKP_fmgcIazJxIcN_2SlNpppCRGakJuNF9PemYN4J17xW_tm4Li1uUQzedk8VUBiUQAtQMJ6j1Hmb3Jj6hSRYqsQxc/s1600/Benito.jpg" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 100%; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;" target="_blank"><img alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5753224629812789778" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA5U6nv34xz4f_chZbmljQbnS0Dggz1yqiikwr7ytd1Lvz2TvUjxKP_fmgcIazJxIcN_2SlNpppCRGakJuNF9PemYN4J17xW_tm4Li1uUQzedk8VUBiUQAtQMJ6j1Hmb3Jj6hSRYqsQxc/s400/Benito.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 275px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" border="0" /></a><blockquote>"The Cubs needed to sign Soler before July 2, when international signings are subject to a cap, a change in the collective bargaining agreement to level the playing field."</blockquote>I know the Trib used to own the Cubs, but did the transaction with the Ricketts family stipulate the continuation of company-line spouting? The cap was instituted not for anything as noble as leveling the playing field, but rather to keep more money in the owners' pockets. In fact, it essentially gives large market owners a bigger advantage, as the international talent pool has been one of the only places (as opposed to veteran free agency) where small market teams could compete with the big boys (see Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes, Miguel Sano, et al). But why let the truth get in the way of a little bit of quaint narrative?<br /><blockquote>"The right-handed, power-hitting Soler is the Cubs' second signing of a Cuban defector in the last three months. They corralled left-hander Gerardo Concepcion in March with a relatively modest $6 million, five-year deal. Concepcion had a poor start at Class A Peoria, allowing 12 runs over 52/3 innings in his first two starts, but has improved since."</blockquote>I suppose the last sentence is technically correct (as it would be virtually impossible not to improve on a 19.06 ERA), but Concepcion has been pretty putrid thus far. Now we're talking a tiny sample size of a young, inexperienced player, so I'm not saying it means anything; in fact, given the dollars involved, I still like the signing. But these are his numbers:<br /><blockquote><table style="height: 40px; width: 356px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 20pt;" span="2" width="26"> <col style="width: 30pt;" width="40"> <col style="width: 25pt;" span="8" width="33"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt; width: 20pt;" height="20" width="26">W</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 20pt;" width="26">L</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 30pt;" width="40">ERA</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 25pt;" width="33">GS</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 25pt;" width="33">IP</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 25pt;" width="33">H</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 25pt;" width="33">R</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 25pt;" width="33">ER</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 25pt;" width="33">HR</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 25pt;" width="33">BB</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; width: 25pt;" width="33">K</td> </tr><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; height: 15pt;" height="20">2</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">4</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">6.16</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">9</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">38</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">48</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">35</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">26</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">4</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">23</td> <td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">22</td> </tr></tbody></table></blockquote>Concepcion has performed badly, with K and BB walk rates that will become especially alarming if they persist throughout the season. To imply anything else is not in line with reality, but at least the Tribune resisted its usual urge to throw dirt on any Cubs prospect with a miniscule sample of poor performance.<br /><blockquote>"Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer<a class="taxInlineTagLink" href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/sports/baseball/jed-hoyer--PEBSL000491.topic" id="PEBSL000491" title="Jed Hoyer "></a> were in on Soler early, making his signing a priority after missing out on fellow Cuban Yoenis Cespedes, who signed a four-year, $36 million deal with the A's. ... Cespedes hasn't lived up to expectations yet, hitting .275 with six home runs while battling injuries."</blockquote>I generally avoid drawing expectations-based conclusions from 131-at-bat samples that come two months into a four-year contract, but maybe that's just me.<br /><blockquote>"While declining to pursue mega-deal free-agent types such as Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, the Cubs have instead focused on paying for future talent, a risky strategy usually employed by small-market clubs."</blockquote>Yes, this is a truly risky tactic, unlike the safe, sure strategy of signing a soon-to-be-past-his-prime performer to a nine-figure contract. You know, low-risk guys like Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, and Barry Zito. Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown. Carlos Lee. Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. Yes, those small-market clubs should surely stop taking so much risk on future talent and just go for certainty.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFEC_gqXDo7hIBgoc2NrO8ryPFtl1HOz590_hjabw3an8vrE_el-D9lnKeaXPuqdd_0VUKrU2cV7BjfNsAsEaOR7ed5HEH8HTAcmpl1Tom9dEnUaj9Zvn1OHaOCHf1LPeieyfCQjikjqw/s1600/Teix.jpg" style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 100%; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;" target="_blank"><img alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5753224450546751122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFEC_gqXDo7hIBgoc2NrO8ryPFtl1HOz590_hjabw3an8vrE_el-D9lnKeaXPuqdd_0VUKrU2cV7BjfNsAsEaOR7ed5HEH8HTAcmpl1Tom9dEnUaj9Zvn1OHaOCHf1LPeieyfCQjikjqw/s400/Teix.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 305px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" border="0" /></a>I also don't like the Trib's subtext here: "Chicago is a big market, they should be signing big-money players, not pinching pennies like the little guys." This line of thinking is utter bullshit, and is precisely what put the Cubs in this predicament in the first place. Major League free agency is incredibly inefficient, market-wise, and a terrible way to try to build a ballclub that currently has as few (talent) assets as the Cubs do. What would Pujols or Fielder be doing for the Cubs right now other than raking in ungodly sums of cash? Putting as much of their money as possible into the minor league system is undoubtedly the best way to rebuild; whether those players end up on the roster or are used as trade chips, it's a much more efficient way to do business.<br />I really can't describe how exhilarating it is that, for the first time in my life, I feel like the Cubs are being led by a capable group of people who really know what they're doing. Now if only I could say the same for those paid to cover them...Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-85169145563657382762012-01-28T00:12:00.007-06:002012-01-28T12:53:06.711-06:00Joltin' Jo<div class="entry-body"> <p>Ok, I admit I didn't watch the Bulls<a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nba/teams/chicago-bulls" class="sbn-auto-link"></a>' 107-100 win over the Bucks on Friday. And I also never write anymore, so I'm rustier than a bike pump. But given those caveats, I'm sure you can agree that something pretty monumental must've happened to get my ass a-bloggin'. And that monument was Joakim Noah's<a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nba/players/24203/joakim-noah" class="sbn-auto-link"></a> stat line.<br /><br />Now remember, this is the same Noah who just two weeks ago was the subject of several articles along the lines of ESPN.com's <i><a href="http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/id/7450485/there-wrong-chicago-bulls-joakim-noah" target="_blank">There's something wrong with Joakim Noah</a></i>. A sentiment that I, despite my general distaste for the sentimentee, actually agreed with. Except I took it even further, believing Noah's subpar play went beyond this year, and dated all the way back to his thumb surgery last season. While I discovered the numbers didn't quite support that position (at least not on a per-minute basis) there is no arguing that Noah began the year slowly.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZyenoEWUDKFwAY1GcSTCwibxljA7kJNoc6TLjybo6avlb4YKMW2ceyXpGsiwylKu3wxr7CcgAMZxilEWW8tjQ2xHjLSVwyX2yCvhmw62t05ZjWQU1epLyyu0lQgO5L92bmmwvuqcDMAs/s1600/Sloth.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZyenoEWUDKFwAY1GcSTCwibxljA7kJNoc6TLjybo6avlb4YKMW2ceyXpGsiwylKu3wxr7CcgAMZxilEWW8tjQ2xHjLSVwyX2yCvhmw62t05ZjWQU1epLyyu0lQgO5L92bmmwvuqcDMAs/s400/Sloth.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; cursor: hand; width: 400px; height: 290px;" border="0" /></a></p> <p>But since January 13th -- coincidentally(?) the day after the ESPN piece and <a href="http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-01-11/sports/ct-spt-0112-bits-bulls-wizards-chicago--20120112_1_tom-thibodeau-asik-and-gibson-noah-and-boozer" target="_blank">a similar blurb in the Tribune</a> ran -- Noah had been on a bit of a mini-tear. In seven games, he'd posted double-digit rebounds six times after doing it just four times in the season's first 12 games. He'd also scored in double figures four times after topping 10 just once in the first dozen contests. But all of that was tiny taters compared to Friday, when Joakim Noah went America all over everybody's ass:</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FcEgj6FSzCgfxfkcMGeotf1DgnitUkHoJLghkJyL2wxjDdSQrvMUwRES_PQ1e-9S-Zu4hUIbYq-2IiTMPwniNJRVQfYi0Cvz81RJqz8RkxsgfpJH-eKVY8Se-AsL60rCuzmybRE5Nm4/s1600/NoahBox.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FcEgj6FSzCgfxfkcMGeotf1DgnitUkHoJLghkJyL2wxjDdSQrvMUwRES_PQ1e-9S-Zu4hUIbYq-2IiTMPwniNJRVQfYi0Cvz81RJqz8RkxsgfpJH-eKVY8Se-AsL60rCuzmybRE5Nm4/s400/NoahBox.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; cursor: hand; width: 400px; height: 53px;" border="0" /></a></p> <p>Now, you might say to yourself, 'Sure, a double-15's nice, and I guess the steals and blocks look good, but why the furious reach around? It's just a good game." Well, yourself, you couldn't be more wrong. It's a GREAT game. And a rare one too. Or at least I thought it absolutely had to be.</p> <p>So I used Basketball-Reference.com's awesome (and surprisingly free) <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi" target="_blank">Play Index Game Finder</a> to investigate just how rare it actually was. Before I reveal the answer, I want you to get the number in your head for how many times you think a player has hit the following marks since the '85-86 season (as far as BR's database of boxscores goes back):</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBpfOpCnVOV7LzKeVmywzY_GDjuvEU-xVR0aM4cxBppJZ9vUtrh9GxOkfpPSfsJagJEiwFdDSwNrDUTsTStJqq1mjNLlO-Ll2aLJFnU33Gq-0mNUqM26SsRBeTz8tVA5KaiFDA5wLYZIU/s1600/Thresholds.bmp"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBpfOpCnVOV7LzKeVmywzY_GDjuvEU-xVR0aM4cxBppJZ9vUtrh9GxOkfpPSfsJagJEiwFdDSwNrDUTsTStJqq1mjNLlO-Ll2aLJFnU33Gq-0mNUqM26SsRBeTz8tVA5KaiFDA5wLYZIU/s400/Thresholds.bmp" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; cursor: hand; width: 252px; height: 22px;" border="0" /></a></p> <p style="text-align: center;">R</p> <p style="text-align: center;">E</p> <p style="text-align: center;">A</p> <p style="text-align: center;">D</p> <p style="text-align: center;">Y</p> <p style="text-align: center;">?</p> <p>Once. It had happened all of one other time. Now granted, I sort of stacked the deck in Noah's favor by setting the thresholds at (pretty much) exactly his numbers, but still. And even if I lower the assists to, say, three, that only adds <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/pi/shareit/PEVkb" target="_blank">another four games</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSKq_ZXEfAf1aD0Ul7yo6hG-JJaKz2SWqHmncBi5Ge5gSqrvJJevBu7oL3KRz_nrH6ITh65pxwMj4EKL_uu79x5xGtQM8qcnbqpfWSUhVcazaMe_OuKI83G1DQyPKOnraf4aLsXeUx0MY/s1600/Hakeem.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 382px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSKq_ZXEfAf1aD0Ul7yo6hG-JJaKz2SWqHmncBi5Ge5gSqrvJJevBu7oL3KRz_nrH6ITh65pxwMj4EKL_uu79x5xGtQM8qcnbqpfWSUhVcazaMe_OuKI83G1DQyPKOnraf4aLsXeUx0MY/s400/Hakeem.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5702709759963389458" border="0" /></a></p><p>You have to admit that what Noah's stats were, at the very least, uncommon. And thankfully, I'm not the only one trumpeting the unique performance -- in order to do them justice, I'm going to reprint the entirety of the Associated Press' gushing comments on Noah in its <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2012012704" target="_blank">game recap</a>:</p> <blockquote style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);"> <p>Joakim Noah added 15 points and 16 rebounds.</p> </blockquote> <p>Jeez, AP. Get a room.</p> </div>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-54881315408759108042011-10-31T18:43:00.005-05:002011-10-31T20:25:47.382-05:00Silver Bullet<blockquote>This slice of wisdom from JaMarcus Russell in Jon Wertheim’s <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1191566/6/index.htm" target="_blank">Sports Illustrated profile</a> of the former Raiders quarterback and quintessential draft bust: Russell, according to Wertheim, “likes Drew Brees<span class="ysp-player"><a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/5479/"></a></span> [though Russell says he throws off his back foot too much].’ ” ... On behalf of Brees and all other NFL quarterbacks of the past decade who’ve devoted more attention to developing their craft than Russell – which is to say all of them – one final thought: <i>Yo, JaMarcus – have some more Purple Drank.</i></blockquote>The above is from Mike Silver's weekly <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ms-silver_morning_rush_tebow_struggles_103111">NFL piece on Yahoo</a>; although I trimmed out a trio of lame jokes -- apparently, when Silver was taught the comedy rule of three, no one told him that the shit should be funny -- you get the gist of it. Anyway, I have nothing against Silver -- in fact, we seem to have a lot in common, not the least of which is our esteemed <a href="http://www.berkeley.edu/">alma mater</a> -- but I do have a major problem with him ripping Russell.<br /><br />The average blogger/sportswriter didn't grow up dreaming about covering sports; they dreamt of playing them. But at some point, they just weren't good enough to compete. Maybe they realized it as far back as Little League, or were told as much as they got cut from the varsity, or when they didn't get a scholarship, but somewhere along the line it became abundantly clear that they couldn't hack it. And so they found another way to get themselves in the game -- by writing about it.<br /><br />But no matter how successful sportswriters become, they constantly have one thing thrown in their faces by the players (and even some fans) -- that is, that they couldn't possibly know what they are talking about because they <span style="font-style: italic;">never played the game</span>. Which is what makes Silver's angle so appalling to me: basically, that Russell isn't allowed to have a take on a quarterback's tendencies because he was a terrible NFL quarterback.<br /><br />Apparently, Silver has no idea what the implications of this are: That the players are right -- if you can't play the game at the highest level, you can't have an opinion about it. In taking down JaMarcus Russell's critique of Drew Brees' foot, Mike Silver has managed to shoot the sportwriting community in theirs.<i><br /></i>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-80906192446376176122011-07-21T18:29:00.014-05:002011-07-23T00:38:04.169-05:00Fire Mike Quade!One thing is certain: the guy flat-out cannot manage. This team is absolutely stacked, and Quade is making them look like they're the 2011 Cubs for God's sake.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQH_nx5-wbW6zlYm4dbNNazstzhlDbFV2XkvQf3Fb6lumuwk5_KrQifuLl1y67y85REX9xjhTHkNADht3gggDhVNmoOqnsfY-OyjeV-MBQnMJStE2Z8uacUJLqkBtGnMcH8pbHIfNzp0o/s1600/Quade.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 315px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQH_nx5-wbW6zlYm4dbNNazstzhlDbFV2XkvQf3Fb6lumuwk5_KrQifuLl1y67y85REX9xjhTHkNADht3gggDhVNmoOqnsfY-OyjeV-MBQnMJStE2Z8uacUJLqkBtGnMcH8pbHIfNzp0o/s400/Quade.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5632006585322501170" border="0" /></a>Let's start with the bats. Cubs general manager Jim Hendry has cannily assembled a lineup replete with stellar offensive producers. I mean, you've got guaranteed 40/40 man Alfonso Soriano -- currently on pace to fall a mere 17 homers and 38 stolen bases short of that lofty standard -- batting 7th most days! And Soriano is still a top offensive player in numerous categories. Categories like average annual salary. And walk avoidance, where he is currently 10th in the league among players with 290+ PAs. Sure, that's impressive, but he only ranks fourth on the Cubs, as he is outundisciplined by Aramis Ramirez (7th in NL), Starlin Castro (6th), and Darwin Barney (2nd). With bases this unclogged, how are the Cubs not leading the league in runs scored? Mike EEEE, that's how.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEyP7DA7S4nfjJxd5Z1kEPjfKC1NBrlZvLgcZ4ZRzSgdeyN1m4c45q1ZhjRtxMBeY02egruFWrVmKI_9HVhV2_JImrzSMJbRSV2w5RP3HK-5rMf0E20ePqK2KHFRywbqeymRhSkbrISeE/s1600/Byrd.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 355px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEyP7DA7S4nfjJxd5Z1kEPjfKC1NBrlZvLgcZ4ZRzSgdeyN1m4c45q1ZhjRtxMBeY02egruFWrVmKI_9HVhV2_JImrzSMJbRSV2w5RP3HK-5rMf0E20ePqK2KHFRywbqeymRhSkbrISeE/s400/Byrd.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5632006591425445394" border="0" /></a>And you want to talk about pitching? How about a starting staff so brimming with talent that Quade insisted Hendry trade away a rather serviceable 28-year-old back-end guy in Tom Gorzelanny, just to save a cool $2.1 million while replenishing the A-ball disabled list (two pitchers) and corner-outfield talent pool (a 22-year-old High-A repeater whose recent hot streak sent him soaring past the Mendoza line). Yes, it's safe to say that the Cubs have a very, very good rotation.<br /><br />What more does this guy need?<br /><br />Then there's the bullpen... Oh, that bullpen. Let's begin with the back end. The one thing every team looks for in a closer is the ability to block out the pressure and come into a game and just pound the ball zone. And nobody can throw balls like Carlos Marmol. Sure, he's regressed a little from his '09 peak of 7.91 BB/9, but he still leads the league at 5.98, so don't even try to tell me Quade doesn't have a reliable guy to hand the ball to in the 9th.<br /><br />And the rest of the bullpen falls right in line behind Marmol, smartly avoiding strikes -- these are MAJOR LEAGUE hitters they're facing, you know -- and commanding their way to an NL-leading 4.46 BB/9. Be it Jeff Samardzija, Kerry Wood, or John Grabow, bases empty or sacks packed, the Cubs bullpen is committed to walking men regardless of game circumstance, a crucial skill for relievers to have, and one that Mike Quade seems intent on squandering.<br /><br />Plus, he's not Ryne Sandberg!<br /><br />Did Quade spend four whole grueling seasons as a minor league manager, where he was often a bigger draw than either team and was showered with adulation as a Hall-of-Fame ballplayer somehow managing in the sticks? He did not. Instead Quade spent just 17 years toiling in anonymity as a manager in the minors. Call me when you've paid your dues, Mikey.<br /><br />And you know what the worst part is? Not only is Quade not a Hall of Famer, nor a former Cub, but he never even played in the major leagues! Yes, just like fellow managerial midgets Joe McCarthy, Jim Leyland, and Earl Weaver -- who combined for fewer than 5,200 wins and barely cobbled together 20 playoff appearances between them -- Quade never even made it to the bigs.<br /><br />The bottom line is, despite a mere $134 million to work with, Jim Hendry painstakingly constructed a perfectly good 70-win team, and Quade is shitting all over it on his way to 65 wins.<br /><br />Fire Mike Quade!Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-38366538362622583602010-05-08T12:21:00.003-05:002010-05-12T00:25:29.629-05:00A Tale of Two KiddiesIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times (for me to be late in posting). <p>Starlin Castro burst onto the scene in Friday's 14-7 win in Cincinnati, making much of my analysis of his promotion moot. I was planning on applauding the Cubs for trying something bold yet relatively low-risk, with little potential downside. If a team needs a shot in the arm -- and the Cubs no doubt did -- digging into its prospect pool is a much better way to do it than, say, <a href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2010/04/panic-move-cubs-send-zambrano-to.html" target="_blank">sending one of your best starters to the bullpen</a>. And while even my favorite baseball writer, Rob Neyer, criticized the Cubs for not waiting a little longer just to avoid Castro getting Super-Two arbitration-eligibility after the 2012 season, I thought it was refreshing to see any front office -- let alone the Cubs -- make a baseball decision based on what it thought was the best interest of the team instead of its finances.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOuXE5lb8V7EmpxXQL-Jypnt8fenj8Wag6yrSPuQ0Fq0GUbkK-cOMzY9sfnNf7pONsgM3mpMGpWrIrBN1MCA2jXeENKCc2SBrQ9USNhQNUJwGC4uQbd089J33MbiYQFfllfAM_TSq3Hh0/s1600/Book.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOuXE5lb8V7EmpxXQL-Jypnt8fenj8Wag6yrSPuQ0Fq0GUbkK-cOMzY9sfnNf7pONsgM3mpMGpWrIrBN1MCA2jXeENKCc2SBrQ9USNhQNUJwGC4uQbd089J33MbiYQFfllfAM_TSq3Hh0/s400/Book.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 278px; height: 400px;" border="0" /></a>I was also going to beseech the Cubs and their fans to be patient with Castro, and to exercise caution sibce he wasn't going to be some sort of savior. Obviously, the second part of that is surely out the window, as expectations are likely through the roof.</p> <p>But while some might end up saying that Castro's 3-run homer / 3-run triple performance is the worst thing that could've happened, I'm going to take the opposite stance. It was absolutely the best possible scenario for the kid, his future, and the organization.</p> <p>Because what that performance has bought is a little bit of patience, which is exactly what the Cubs need and have lacked in the past. It might sound like some sort of crazy oxymoron telling a team to be patient when they've undeniably rushed a prospect, but that's exactly what the Cubs need to be now that he's here.</p> <p>I hear all the time -- and as a cautionary tale with Castro -- that Felix Pie's flame-out arose because he was rushed. The fact is, he wasn't. Pie spent a full season at each level -- although he did miss half of his AA year with an injury -- and held his own despite typically being one of the youngest players in his league. At the time of his initial call-up, Pie had 1,973 non-rookie-ball plate appearances, 931 of them at AA or AAA. Castro's had 630 and 243, respectively.</p> <p>No, Pie's issues had nothing to do with being rushed; the problem was that the Cubs were completely impatient, and never really gave him a reasonable opportunity to establish himself.</p> <p>In Pie's first time up with the Cubs in 2007, he was given 11 starts in his first 12 games, and posted a .233/.250/.419 line in 44 plate appearances. While certainly not great, it's a tiny sample size, five of his 10 hits went for extra bases, and he struck out only eight times. The main reason he "struggled" was that his BABiP was .265. Given his (supposedly) plus defense in centerfield, the Cubs undoubtedly should have given him more time. Instead, he came off the bench for the next ten games or so, went 1-for-6, and was sent back down to AAA.</p> <p>In Pie's second go-round (also in '07), he started 19 of 20 games and went .228/.295/.354 in 89 plate appearances. Again, it's a very small sample size -- and not all that impressive -- but there were some positive indicators. For one, he drew eight walks, and yes, he was hitting eighth most of the time, but he still had to have the plate discipline to take the pitches (none of BBs were intentional), which is hardly a given with a hitter as young as he was. Plus he stole six bases in seven attempts and still wasn't striking out at an alarming rate. But the Cubs had seen enough, and started Pie in just two games over the next two weeks before shipping him back to Des Moines. </p> <p>It should be noted that on these return trips to Iowa, Pie annihilated AAA pitching to the tune of 362/.410/.563. He returned to Chicago for good in August of that year, and started all of six games the rest of the way. Apparently, the Cubs decided they'd rather develop 32-year-old Jacque Jones in center, and while Jones did outproduce Pie -- .286/.333/.432 as a CF in 313 PAs -- he also had one 20-plus-game stretch (from May 16 to June 20) in which he went .173/.241/.253. And yet the Cubs, for the most part, stuck with him; he was still the beneficiary of regular playing time, which he used to show off both his XavierNadyPostTommyJohnSurgeryesque throwing arm and his remarkably circuitous routes to flyballs.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDXH6HRfFjRpP0N6zdbeM56kNlzLEMm2slceBVex4A1lfI1O1-83yjnG4irLUfQBklQPGaJzEgTkvVkJAvydu1hHOdoa4GAyiTZPAU3-uVooxH4aKuTc_0hzCTymrw5gEynGsdBkpRuzU/s1600/BrownNose.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDXH6HRfFjRpP0N6zdbeM56kNlzLEMm2slceBVex4A1lfI1O1-83yjnG4irLUfQBklQPGaJzEgTkvVkJAvydu1hHOdoa4GAyiTZPAU3-uVooxH4aKuTc_0hzCTymrw5gEynGsdBkpRuzU/s400/BrownNose.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 303px; height: 400px;" border="0" /></a>Thankfully, Pie was penciled in as the starter in '08. Unfortunately, that penciling lasted all of four games -- after going 3-for-15 with four strikeouts, Pie was in the lineup for just seven of the next 26 contests. On May 5th and 6th, Pie was given back-to-back starts for the first time since those four season-opening games, going 2-for-7 with a walk, which apparently earned him a third start. In that game, he went 0-for-4 with 3 Ks and that was pretty much the end of his career with the Cubs. He only got three at bats over the next handful of games before getting sent down, and by the time he came back up in September, Jim Edmonds was pretty much entrenched in centerfield; Pie was traded to Baltimore the following offseason.</p> <p>And that should be the cautionary tale in regards to Felix Pie, not some claptrap about him being rushed, which is based not on the facts but rather him being 22 when he was called up. Castro, 20, <i>has</i> been rushed, but as his skill level -- and performance, for the most part -- has warranted it, I don't have much of a problem with it. But I will have a problem if the Cubs don't give him a legitimate shot to get settled in as a big leaguer.</p> <p>Which is why his huge debut was, well, huge. Because it bought him a whole lot of rope. </p> <p>Before Friday's game, my notes for this post included that the Cubs should write Castro's name in the lineup every day until the All-Star Break at the very least, regardless of the results. If you are going to bring a player up that quickly, you have to be ready to weather the storm of his struggles. </p> <p>But there is no doubt in my mind that had Castro started 1-for-20, there would've been a whole lot of wailing about the Cubs jumping the gun, Castro requiring more seasoning, and him needing to be sent back down. I've referenced this before, and it's one of the main causes for my deep-seated hatred of his work, but look at what Paul Sullivan wrote about Pie on August 25, 2007:</p> <blockquote> <p>Pie has not been able to translate the success he has enjoyed at Triple A to the Cubs, despite being given several opportunities. He hit .362 at Iowa but came into Friday's game hitting .217 in three stints with the Cubs, including a .121 average against left-handers.</p> </blockquote> <p>Pie's "several opportunities" amounted to all of 174 plate appearances spread out over five months as a 22-year-old. So Sullivan surely would've been leading the Castro's-not-ready charge, and the fans -- for reasons I don't fully understand -- would've been just as eager to label him as yet another over-hyped Cub prospect bust, just as they did with Pie based on Corey Patterson's failings.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh4DV8YsY6Tc-sxPV-NpkH-knj6vvhw8yuCrR_7WD5jWWhl5jKRq7E70o8lur681jNJTHlU2lPovHAEb607YQr7isfUYZVbbkkq3HYiBtInH1Oir9XWVMouG9-CC33EnI0ozCs86dOOtY/s1600/Equation.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh4DV8YsY6Tc-sxPV-NpkH-knj6vvhw8yuCrR_7WD5jWWhl5jKRq7E70o8lur681jNJTHlU2lPovHAEb607YQr7isfUYZVbbkkq3HYiBtInH1Oir9XWVMouG9-CC33EnI0ozCs86dOOtY/s400/Equation.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 227px;" border="0" /></a>In short, Castro wouldn't have stood a chance had he struggled. But because of his huge game, people will now cut him a hell of a lot more slack. Even if he goes through a rough patch, they'll believe he can pull out of it based on that one good game. It sounds ridiculous, but there is no doubt in my mind that it's true.</p> <p>Still, I beseech Lou Pinella and the Cubs to at all costs just let the kid stay in the lineup. If two weeks from now he's gone from 2-for-5 to 2-for-50, please just leave him alone. Give him a real chance. Because with Geovany Soto quietly putting together a spectacular opening to the season (.362/.516/.594 with an insane .484 wOBA), the Cubs could suddenly be very strong up the middle for years to come. I can't help but wonder what might've been with Pie because it looks like the Cubs are very close to having an eerily similar core of homegrown up-the-middle players to the one that keyed the Yankees late-90's dominance; I'm still hopeful that Brett Jackson can replace Pie into the Bernie Williams role. Sure, that sounds heady stuff, but it's backed up statistically, as Derek Jeter's career .317/.387/.459 line looks like an unabashed pile of shit next to Castro's .400/.400/1.400.</p> <p>Go Cubs.</p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-80831338402652042122010-04-29T23:07:00.008-05:002010-05-04T14:53:11.967-05:00Mr. SKIA's post-draft ideasOne of the unintended consequences of the Bears trade for Jay Cutler -- and the ill-advised one for the late Gaines Adams -- was that it forced the Bears to act in free agency. That is, coming off a horrendous 2-14 year -- <i>What? They went 7-9?</i> Sure as hell didn't feel like it -- the Bears in seasons past would've tried to fill their multitude of holes cheaply and through the draft. But without a pick in the first two rounds and knowing that the beyond-disappointed fan base was clamoring for improvement, the Bears actually went out and spent. <p>And really, this is the second consecutive offseason where they made bold moves with no regard for cost. No one can accuse the Bears of being cheap anymore, although several people still will. Case in point: the reaction to <a href="http://morrisdailyherald.com/blogs/entries/2010/04/02/34604500/index.xml" target="_blank">the jettisoning of Alex Brown</a> in the wake of the Julius Peppers signing. Look, Brown has been a solid player and a good soldier, but he's never recorded more than seven sacks in a season and will be 31 next year. The combination of Mark Anderson and Israel Idonije, both younger and cheaper, should be able to at least match Brown's production.</p> <p>While I believe the Bears might have signed the relatively-inexpensive Chester Taylor as a complement to Matt Forte regardless, I'm confident that there is no way they would've opened the vault for Peppers if they were still holding the 11th overall pick. Instead we would've gotten an assfull of Jason Pierre-Paul or Derrick Morgan's upside, and while either (or both) of those guys <i>might</i> end up being a force, Peppers <i>is</i> one. Sure, he's also aging, but this team's window of opportunity is small -- the Bears have more old men in prominent positions than the Ft. Lauderdale Wal-Mart -- so they need players who can make an instant impact.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHLTt9IhC-t2rr5xXEGoeL4w4c9Sbe2bDhLmWyKIi8JICyUUbJGac_iZVBxd_456DYIMMcKB7CHkotxsLMqckzSYe8poY66rrr7qCiAQfZs-oYEQEMtcRuKcWew1iJztXmHSi8hPcpxiY/s1600/Urlacher.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHLTt9IhC-t2rr5xXEGoeL4w4c9Sbe2bDhLmWyKIi8JICyUUbJGac_iZVBxd_456DYIMMcKB7CHkotxsLMqckzSYe8poY66rrr7qCiAQfZs-oYEQEMtcRuKcWew1iJztXmHSi8hPcpxiY/s400/Urlacher.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 297px;" border="0" /></a>With the Bears still holding five mid-to-late round choices, they hadn't quite <a href="http://blogs.suntimes.com/sportsprose/2010/03/mike_ditka_stands_by_ricky_wil.html" target="_blank">pulled a Mike Ditka</a>, and decorum dictated that GM Jerry Angelo attend the draft and make their remaining selections. And considering their limited number of picks, most pundits gave the Bears positive reviews. Because I consider him the authority on all things NFL Draft, here's what Mel Kiper Jr. had to say:</p> <blockquote style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 40px; border: medium none; padding: 0px;"> <p>I liked the Bears draft. I liked the pick [of Dan LeFevour]. I think 3-4 years down the road he can help you. ... I like the [Major] Wright pick, they needed help at safety. [Corey] Wootton was a first round pick a few years ago, but had the injury. I gave them a B grade.</p> </blockquote> <p>And I generally agree with Kiper; basically, I like all the Bears picks but one. What follows is my selection-by-selection breakdown.</p> <p><b>Round 3, Pick 75: S Major Wright</b><b>, Florida; 5'11½", 206 lbs.<br />NFL.com #105, Scout.com #67, NFLDraftScout.com #134</b><br />The best thing about this guy? The name. Absolutely love it. Then again, I'm still wondering how the hell Major Harris didn't become the previous Michael Vick. Anyway, doesn't Major Wright just sound like someone who should be a badass headhunter back there?</p> <p>In terms of his performance, I like <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOZnLEGJaiU" target="_blank">this hit</a>, and he scouting reports on him are generally positive. Most importantly, he brings a straight-ahead speed component that all the Bears safeties save Danieal Manning currently lack. </p> <p><b>Best case:</b> Mike Brown<br /><b>Worst case</b>: Craig Steltz<br /><b>Money quote</b>: "When you don't pick for the first time until 75, getting a coverage safety in Major Wright to band-aid a position of big need is a good job." -- <i>Peter King, Sports Illustrated</i></p> <p><br /><b>Round 4, Pick 109: DE Corey Wootton</b><b>, Northwestern; 6'6", 270 lbs.<br />NFL.com #42, Scouts.com #42, NFLDraftScout.com #71<br /></b>The Bears best pick, in terms of value. Wootton likely would've gone at least two rounds higher if not for a catastrophic knee injury 18 months ago; while players can return from those kinds of things in eight or nine months, it's usually not until the following season that they <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waZuFK_pxjA" target="_blank">round back into form</a>. </p> <p>Additionally, you can never have too many quality defensive ends, and given the relative uncertainty of both Anderson and Idonije, Wootton was a very good pick. Keep in mind, too, that the Bears are now at a net zero for defensive ends this offseason: They lost Brown and Adewale Ogunleye, and picked up Peppers and Wootton.<br /><br /><b>Best case</b>: Richard Dent<br /><b>Worst case</b>: Dan Bazuin, Claude Harriott, Michael Haynes, Karon Riley, Pat Riley, John Thierry; and the list goes on and on (Henry Melton?)<br /><b>Money quote</b>: "I love the choice of defensive end Corey Wootton in the fourth round. ... He could be a steal." -- <i>Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com</i></p> <p><br /><b>Round 5, Pick 141: CB Joshua Moore, Kansas State; 5'10⅞", 188 lbs.<br />NFL.com #273, Scout.com #198, NFLDraftScout.com #154</b><br />I didn't like this pick at the time, and I like it even less now. I don't think it made any sense from a standpoint of need -- I would've nabbed an offensive lineman here* -- or as the so-called best player available, as the respective rankings show. Is this guy really going to be any better than Corey Graham, Tim Jennings, Woodny Turenne, or last year's drafted Moore, D.J.? I'm skeptical. Meanwhile, I am certain the offensive line could use an infusion of both youth and talent.</p> <p>* <i>Which brings me to my biggest issue with Jerry Angelo's draft strategy. This was Angelo's ninth draft as GM. In the first year, he drafted two offensive linemen: Marc Columbo and Terrence Metcalf. In the intervening years, he has often used a seventh rounder on a lineman, doing so in each of the last four drafts, but guys drafted in Round 7 rarely crack an NFL roster. Beginning with the '03 draft, do you know how many picks Angelo has used on offensive linemen in the first six rounds? Three. Chris Williams ('08, first), Josh Beekman ('07, fourth), and Tyler Reed, ('06, sixth). Denver and New England, two franchises that consistently have very good offensive lines, have taken 13 and 11, respectively, over the same period.<br /><br />In my opinion, a team should use at least one mid-round pick on an offensive lineman every year. That's how you build a good offensive line. But the Bears, in the last eight years, have instead selected 13 defensive backs in Rounds 1 through 6 (12 if you don't count Devin Hester). Putting aside that even if you consistently ran the nickel, you would only play as many d-backs as offensive linemen, does Angelo really think this is the way to build a football team, from back to front? As someone so obsessed with getting defensive linemen -- he's selected 13 in the first six rounds since '03 -- it would appear that Angelo believes in the games-are-won-in-the-trenches axiom. I have no idea why he'd adhere to it on one side of the ball, and completely ignore it on the other.</i></p> <p>Moore doesn't seem like <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TuG1TFMCyY" target="_blank">much of a ball-hawk</a> -- just six interceptions in his career -- but his tackle numbers were strong, and he was honorable mention All-Big 12 the last two years. He supposedly lacks top-end speed, but that's less important given the Bears' scheme than it would be elsewhere.</p> <p><b>Best case</b>: Nathan Vasher<br /><b>Worst case</b>: Roosevelt Williams<br /><b>Money quote</b>: "Josh Moore has a chance to be a nickel corner in their defense. He has nice cover skills."<i> -- Prisco<br /><br /></i></p> <p><b>Round 6, Pick 181: QB Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan; 6'3¼", 230 lbs.<br />NFL.com #115, Scout.com #70, NFLDraftScout.com #100</b><br />This appears to be the more contentious pick than the Moore one, but I disagree. Quarterback is basically the only position where a guy can increase his value league-wide while on the bench, and LeFevour was a significant bargain at this point. Plus, the Bears were one of the few teams in league that ran with only two quarterbacks last year, so this is a solid selection from a roster-makeup standpoint.</p> <p>LeFevour, who went to high school just a few miles from where I grew up, put up huge numbers playing in the spread, and most believe that it going to an NFL offense will be a huge adjustment. But that's true of almost all college QBs, and LeFevour supposedly has the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-7sEg7JgLQ" target="_blank">arm-strength, size, and athletic ability</a> to at least be a serviceable backup. Considering that sixth-rounders are relative longshots anyway, getting a guy at this point who will almost certainly make the team is a sound investment.<br /><br /><b>Best case</b>: A mobile Kyle Orton<br /><b>Worst case</b>: Craig Krenzel<br /><b>Money quote</b>: "LeFevour was considered by some to be one of the best quarterbacks in the draft, and was a good value at this point." -- <i>NFL.com<br /><br /></i></p> <p><b>Round 7, Pick 218: OT J'Marcus Webb, West Texas A&M; 6'8", 335 lbs.<br />NFL.com NR, Scouts.com NR, NFLDraftScout.com #267 </b><br />Who the hell knows with this guy? Obviously, neither NFL.com (whose rankings went 350 players deep) nor Scouts.com (520) thought much of the <a href="http://www.prlog.org/10598827-richmond-webb-tackles-jmarcus-webb.html" target="_blank">cousin of longtime-Dolphin Richmond Webb</a>, but I'm thinking that at this point, they might as well gamble on some enormous kid. Even though it has yet to work out in Angelo's first several attempts.</p> <p><b>Best case:</b> James "Big Cat" Williams<br /><b>Worst case</b>: Kirk Barton<br /><b>Money quote</b>: "He has the size to play at the NFL level, but its going to take a significant amount of coaching for him to realize his potential." -- <i>ESPN.com</i></p> <p><br />And those are your five newest Chicago Bears. If they are lucky, the Bears will end up with two impact players from this class. For obvious reasons, the smart money is on Wright and Wootton. But the real money's on Peppers and Cutler. If both of them don't play like superstars, it'll be far more devastating to the franchise -- and the fanbase -- than this draft ever could be.</p> <div style="text-align: center;">*****<br /></div><p>A few other draft thoughts:</p> <p>Gotta admire what the Lions did on Day 1, getting the best prospect in the draft (Ndamukong Suh) and then trading up into the back end of the first to nab Cal's Jahvid Best, a great kid that I covered when he was in high school. Getting impact players on both sides of the ball was huge for a Lions team that has been mostly devoid of talent in recent years. This should mark a huge upgrade for them, and I also liked the Amari Spivey pick.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUz747CrUxWbussOUE8qKhsDiBPxqUBznp0M_3L6rvi_VDmfR50lWHWHrF6PI2fzjgShS_IH1uMEbpWt9IcTWy2m7uF6hYnlD5wk0b04zMj6lm0gnsJAiuGh4nzXlL1TgOYG4L5M_dccM/s1600/JahvidArticle.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUz747CrUxWbussOUE8qKhsDiBPxqUBznp0M_3L6rvi_VDmfR50lWHWHrF6PI2fzjgShS_IH1uMEbpWt9IcTWy2m7uF6hYnlD5wk0b04zMj6lm0gnsJAiuGh4nzXlL1TgOYG4L5M_dccM/s400/JahvidArticle.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 291px; height: 400px;" border="0" /></a>I didn't understand why the Jets basically gave away Leon Washington (and a seventh rounder) in that deal with Seattle for a fifth-rounder. I know that he had a pretty severe leg injury, but Washington's extremely quick and relatively young. Maybe New York decided there weren't enough snaps for a three-headed monster in its backfield, which just means that not only did the Jets waste significant dollars on a badly-fading LaDanian Tomlinson as a complement to Shonn Greene, but also that the ill-advised signing cost them a productive player in Washington.</p> <p>Finally, I enjoyed the hullabaloo over the Broncos picking Tim Tebow, a move pretty much <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/383338-tim-tebow-pick-shows-josh-mcdaniels-arrogance" target="_blank">universally panned</a> by those not affiliated with the University of Florida and the non-bible-thumping populace alike. I'm no Tebow fan, but here's my question: If the traditional way of evaluating quarterbacks results in a <a href="http://www.seahawkaddicts.com/2010-articles/january/why-you-dont-pass-on-first-round-quarterbacks.html">failure rate of roughly 50%</a> among first rounders, then what, exactly, did Denver have to lose? Allegedly sound first-round selections -- guys who didn't have questions about where they held the ball, or the length of their release -- such as Ryan Leaf, J.P. Losman, and JaMarcus Russell have been abject failures. So I just don't get raking a team over the coals for ignoring criteria that are clearly broken. Especially considering that with Tebow there's essentially a stop-loss, as pretty much everyone agrees he would make a very good H-back or tight end. And so even if he fails as a quarterback, the Broncos will still have a useful player. That, to me, completely mitigated any additional perceived risk, and made him a highly defensible first-round selection.</p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-27545648358354240452010-04-25T11:24:00.005-05:002010-05-03T04:54:06.121-05:00More than a speed bump, Bulls becoming contendersAlthough the ending no doubt lopped off several decades from my life, I was thrilled to see the Bulls hang on for the 108-106 win in Game 3 over the Cleveland Cavaliers, who after last season's playoff flame-out will be feeling a ton of pressure in Game 4. Unfortunately, the Cavs probably witnessed the Western Conference's No. 1 seed losing a Game 4 on Saturday night, when the Oklahoma Thunder blew out the Los Angeles Lakers 110-89 to tie that series at 2, so there will be no underestimating the threat Chicago poses in this one. <p>But you have to be happy with the way the Bulls have played thus far. While they might not have looked very good in Game 1, when they never really threatened and spent far too much time preoccupied with the officiating, since then they've been a lot like the scrappy, resilient bunch that gave the Celtics everything they could handle in last year's playoffs.</p> <p><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6PDoYi_f-fJyPD8-LWUE8xvcNQcSYF-w1GTVmWIRf5e-6Eb3OtPn-M2HQMzizcHjtpFf2vX24JURIVDoqLvndjqlJAJTNmUwCaiJM7g-4fBnle8sq5xbRM7mSMmLQtSt7EvbK_l_Nz24/s1600/Hinrich.jpg" mce_href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6PDoYi_f-fJyPD8-LWUE8xvcNQcSYF-w1GTVmWIRf5e-6Eb3OtPn-M2HQMzizcHjtpFf2vX24JURIVDoqLvndjqlJAJTNmUwCaiJM7g-4fBnle8sq5xbRM7mSMmLQtSt7EvbK_l_Nz24/s1600/Hinrich.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 282px;" mce_style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 282px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6PDoYi_f-fJyPD8-LWUE8xvcNQcSYF-w1GTVmWIRf5e-6Eb3OtPn-M2HQMzizcHjtpFf2vX24JURIVDoqLvndjqlJAJTNmUwCaiJM7g-4fBnle8sq5xbRM7mSMmLQtSt7EvbK_l_Nz24/s400/Hinrich.jpg" mce_src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6PDoYi_f-fJyPD8-LWUE8xvcNQcSYF-w1GTVmWIRf5e-6Eb3OtPn-M2HQMzizcHjtpFf2vX24JURIVDoqLvndjqlJAJTNmUwCaiJM7g-4fBnle8sq5xbRM7mSMmLQtSt7EvbK_l_Nz24/s400/Hinrich.jpg" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5464105204387100594" border="0" /></a>One of the biggest reasons: an engaged Luol Deng. After a disappointing Game 1 (12 points on 5-for-15 shooting), Deng, who missed that series against Boston with one of his many ailments that I can no longer keep track of, has found the range over the last two games, combining to go 16-for-31. He had a nice all-around performance in Game 2, with six rebounds, five assists, and no turnovers, and the Bulls might've stolen a win had Cleveland not made half their 3s while LeBron James (16-of-23 from the field) nailed a series of extremely difficult shots down the stretch.</p> <p>After earning a reputation for disappearing into the background during crunch-time, Deng came up huge defensively down the stretch of Game 3, drawing an enormous charge on LeBron that easily could've been an and-one, and then getting a steal on the Cavs' next possession. Because Deng looked so lost for a good portion of the latter part of the season, the Bulls -- as I mentioned in my <a target="_blank" href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2010/04/lucky-7-bulls-cavaliers.html" mce_href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2010/04/lucky-7-bulls-cavaliers.html">series preview</a> -- really needed for him to deliver, and for the most part he has.</p> <p>Joakim Noah's importance was also obvious in Game 3. After a 25-point, 13-rebound performance in Game 2 that still resulted in him being a team-worst minus-15 (and showed the limitations of the plus/minus stat in small samples), Noah was a team-best +13 in 33 foul-plagued minutes in Game 3. The Bulls were clearly a different team with him on the floor, and while his 10-point, 15-rebound, 5-assist line was terrific, I was disappointed by some of the terrible fouls he picked up, especially his fifth. Which is why it bodes well that after the game Noah acknowledged that they were "stupid, stupid fouls." As I said before the series, the Bulls absolutely need Noah out there, and if they are to have any hope of winning Game 4, he has to stay out of foul trouble.</p> <p>Game 3 had me having flashbacks of <a target="_blank" href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2010/04/wins-win.html" mce_href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2010/04/wins-win.html">this 109-108 win over the Cavs</a>, the final matchup in the regular season that James conspicuously sat out. In both games, the Bulls were extremely lucky that poor free-throw shooting down the stretch didn't completely doom them, although in the regular season one the Cavs simply couldn't convert on the other end, while here they merely ran out of time. And yet, Cleveland's near-comeback also opened a scab from Game 2</p> <p>In that 112-102 loss, the Bulls played exceptionally well, and entered the final quarter tied. The Cavs slowly pulled away throughout the quarter, opening up a 10-point lead with 2:17 remaining. However, with 58.7 seconds left, a pair of Deng free-throws drew the Bulls back within seven at 107-100. Inexplicably, the Bulls did not foul on the ensuing possession; when I screamed (okay, typed, but I was furious) on the Blog-a-Bull game thread, <i>Why aren't they fouling?</i> I got a few <i>The game's over</i>-type responses. Yes, the game was likely going to end up a loss. But this is the playoffs. Why were they conceding anything?</p> <p>Seven points in under a minute is a lot to overcome, but teams do it with relative frequency. Hell, exactly 10 days earlier, the Bulls lost that<a target="_blank" href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=300409017" mce_href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=300409017"> terrible game in New Jersey</a> after blowing a seven-point lead with less than a minute to go in the first overtime. In basketball terms, a minute can be an eternity, and some hot shooting combined with a few missed Cavs free throws might have resulted in an improbable win.</p> <p> <a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs3gG5i4x16dheP3HZP1ErmkZX0KAK5Nm_BOkXTI732995VNozeIvhYgbbID5J3-TO7IIt2qgT-bkSl5Z690nBpx_PfAni9FjNHVKpLZKD6VzD2r4wpIArHhkV9k7YKUYmH3dB7GYiQ5A/s1600/Down10.jpg" mce_href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs3gG5i4x16dheP3HZP1ErmkZX0KAK5Nm_BOkXTI732995VNozeIvhYgbbID5J3-TO7IIt2qgT-bkSl5Z690nBpx_PfAni9FjNHVKpLZKD6VzD2r4wpIArHhkV9k7YKUYmH3dB7GYiQ5A/s1600/Down10.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 341px;" mce_style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 341px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs3gG5i4x16dheP3HZP1ErmkZX0KAK5Nm_BOkXTI732995VNozeIvhYgbbID5J3-TO7IIt2qgT-bkSl5Z690nBpx_PfAni9FjNHVKpLZKD6VzD2r4wpIArHhkV9k7YKUYmH3dB7GYiQ5A/s400/Down10.jpg" mce_src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs3gG5i4x16dheP3HZP1ErmkZX0KAK5Nm_BOkXTI732995VNozeIvhYgbbID5J3-TO7IIt2qgT-bkSl5Z690nBpx_PfAni9FjNHVKpLZKD6VzD2r4wpIArHhkV9k7YKUYmH3dB7GYiQ5A/s400/Down10.jpg" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5464105210545170354" border="0" /></a>Which was very nearly what the Cavs pulled off in Game 3. A pair of Kirk Hinrich free throws put the Bulls ahead 104-96 with 38 seconds to play, but Cleveland didn't throw in the towel, and a trio of made 3-pointers combined with the Bulls' 4-of-8 shooting from the line resulted in the Cavs having a shot to win the game at the end. Sure, the 40-footer by Anthony Parker wasn't a great look -- had the Cavs held any timeouts, they likely would've gotten a better one, taken by LeBron -- but they had a chance to steal the game because they extended it by fouling, which made the Bulls failure to do so a game earlier all the more galling.</p> <p>But honestly, I don't have many other qualms with coach Vinny Del Negro's tactics in the series. In Game 3, he even realized that he should be giving minutes to James Johnson, one of only six Bulls under contract for next year, at the expense of Hakim Warrick and Jannero Pargo, neither of whom played. Johnson has been foul-prone and not all that effective, but he has brought energy, and the experience he is getting will be invaluable down the road.</p> <p>Speaking of which, this series has reinforced just how important making the playoffs was for the Bulls' future. There's plenty of obvious benefits, most notably the postseason reps for the young core. But for this team, which is clearly lacking another scorer, to play so well against what's possibly the best team in the NBA just has to help their chances in free agency. If I'm Dwyane Wade, and I see a team with me <a target="_blank" href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010/columns/story?columnist=sheridan_chris&page=beasleygame3-100423" mce_href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010/columns/story?columnist=sheridan_chris&page=beasleygame3-100423">getting dismantled</a> by a so-so Boston group while another that wants me gives an elite squad all that it can handle, it would have to make me think twice about my <a target="_blank" href="http://espn.go.com/blog/chicagobulls/post/_/id/658/wade-i-love-chicago-but-hearts-in-miami" mce_href="http://espn.go.com/blog/chicagobulls/post/_/id/658/wade-i-love-chicago-but-hearts-in-miami">commitment to Miami</a>. Plus just being in high-profile, nationally-televised games helps too. The TNT studio crew has raved about the Bulls; with Kenny Smith calling Rose his favorite player in the league and Charles Barkley reaffirming his love Noah, it's like an infomercial for prospective free agents.</p> <p>Plus, the Bulls genuinely seem to like playing with each other. Noah's post-game comments almost always contain glowing references to Rose, and how much he loves him. In this one, noting how Rose was unfazed when LeBron decided to try to D him up in the fourth quarter -- to me one of the most encouraging images of the series was seeing Rose go right at LeBron -- Noah said, "D-Rose played huge for us. ... I'm glad he's on my team."</p> <p>Before the series, I heard quite a few pundits say something along the lines of, "The teams split the season series, but that's not really representative because LeBron James sat out the last regular season game." Unfortunately, they failed to note that one of the Cavs' wins is equally deserving of an asterisk. On March 19, Cleveland beat the the Bulls -- playing without Rose, Noah, and Deng -- 92-85. As far as I'm concerned, they split the regular season 1-1, and the Bulls and Cavs have now played five games with the season series at 3-2. Clearly, this matchup is not the blowout that it was perceived to be, and although I'm not necessarily expecting the Bulls to win Game 4, it wouldn't surprise me, either. As Rose and Noah continue to develop, this team is getting better every day. And the future, regardless of if they are able to sign a marquee free agent or end up conserving their cap space to use in trades, is indeed very bright.</p><p>Go Bulls.<br /></p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-55582164019833941812010-04-22T00:25:00.009-05:002010-04-22T14:23:57.771-05:00Panic move: Cubs send Zambrano to bullpen<a name="fb_share" type="button_count" href="http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php">Share</a><script src="http://static.ak.fbcdn.net/connect.php/js/FB.Share" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><br />With the Cubs bullpen off to a predictably terrible start -- if you think it wasn't predictable, <a href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2010/04/80-is-not-enough.html" target="_blank">click here</a> -- I have been fretting about general manager Jim Hendry handing out several <a href="http://www.examiner.com/x-2910-Houston-Astros-Examiner%7Ey2009m12d11-Wade-criticized-for-Lyons-contract" target="_blank">Brandon Lyon-esque contracts</a> next offseason, or, worse yet, having him <i>really</i> panic and pull the trigger on a worthy successor to the Jon Garland-for-Matt Karchner / Kyle Lohse-for-Rick Aguilera / Jose Ceda-for-Kevin Gregg deals that have literally shaved years off my life -- that's right, each of those transactions came to my apartment in the form of a razor, and with patented lift-and-cut technology smoothly removed time from my existence in a single stroke. Sure, it sounds exceptionally efficient, but the whole process is, in reality, quite painful. <p>Anyway, the upshot is, I've been dreading the story coming off the wire of an Andrew Cashner-for-Tim Byrdak deal, or perhaps a Jay Jackson-for-Takashi Saito swap. And then I saw this headline on ESPN.com:</p> <h3><a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=5123176" target="_blank"><blockquote></blockquote><blockquote>Cubs moving Zambrano to bullpen</blockquote></a></h3> <p>Now, I probably would've gone with something a little flashier, like <i>Panic Move: Cubs send Zambrano to bullpen</i>, but I do admittedly have a flair for the dramatic.</p> <p>Still, that's what this is: a $53.75 million panic move.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNZNkbe1mTdYGBeYpZtio9p1mLgVZwvXnqfEh-BItps4-sghaG_0XkqttXn83tnJJz4BetI-vVHfLo9k35Gew_SZPqPalmri3FfJWMKM6Nxue0yac5byUKleYSw1NfmrKYinHb3YtUz64/s1600/HendryLouPanic.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNZNkbe1mTdYGBeYpZtio9p1mLgVZwvXnqfEh-BItps4-sghaG_0XkqttXn83tnJJz4BetI-vVHfLo9k35Gew_SZPqPalmri3FfJWMKM6Nxue0yac5byUKleYSw1NfmrKYinHb3YtUz64/s400/HendryLouPanic.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 313px;" border="0" /></a>Continuing from Bruce Levine's ESPNChicago.com report:</p> <blockquote style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 40px; border: medium none; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);"> <p>The Chicago Cubs confirmed reports that manager Lou Piniella is moving struggling starter Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen, in a move that may not be temporary.</p> <p>"I told him we really needed him in the bullpen," Piniella told reporters.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now granted, with Ted Lilly returning, someone had to move to the bullpen, and Zambrano could really help there, as he clearly has the greatest chance of becoming an ace reliever<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:medium;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;font-family:Arial,Verdana,sans-serif;font-size:12px;" ></span></span>. Why? BECAUSE HE'S THE BEST GODDAMN PITCHER of the guys they supposedly considered: Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, and him. Which is why you want him throwing 200 innings, instead of 70.</p> <p>I know the choice couldn't have been easy; unlike the bullpen, the rotation has actually been very good. Take a gander at these numbers (through 4/20):</p> <table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 286pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="383"> <tbody> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 41pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" width="54" height="17">Starter</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" width="47">ERA</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" width="47">FIP</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" width="47">xFIP</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" width="47">BABiP</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" width="47">K/9</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" width="47">BB/9</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" width="47">HR/9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" height="17">A</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">0.69</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">2.01</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">3.38</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">.218</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">5.54</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">0.00</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">0.00</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" height="17">B</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">1.93</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">2.48</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">3.79</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">.266</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">6.75</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">2.89</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">0.00</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" height="17">C</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">2.45</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">2.41</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">3.68</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">.362</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">6.38</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">2.45</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">0.00</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" height="17">D</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">3.15</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">2.81</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">3.32</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">.274</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">9.90</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">3.60</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">0.45</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" height="17">E</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">7.45</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">4.72</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">3.37</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">.435</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">12.10</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">4.66</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);" class="xl24">1.86</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>Without a doubt, Pitcher E has ostensibly been the worst. But more tellingly, he's also been the unluckiest; while his earned run average and fielding-independent pitching stick out like Matt Stairs' belly, his expected fielding-independent pitching -- using a formula that removes the home run component, which can be profoundly influenced by luck in a pitcher's home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) in a given season -- is solidly near the front of the pack.</p> <p>Pitcher E, not surprisingly, is Zambrano. Not that any of this should matter, though, because the whole stupid chart serves as an exemplar for why you don't make decisions like these based on three or four starts.</p> <p>Does anyone think that Pitcher A (Silva) is not going to walk a guy all season? Or allow a home run? Or that he can maintain a .218 BABiP? None of those things are even remotely sustainable; while Silva is an excellent control pitcher, his career walk rate is 1.69 BB/9, and more importantly, he has allowed 1.12 HR/9 and a .312 BABiP. Furthermore, how much longer can we expect Starters B (Gorzelanny) and C (Randy Wells) to not allow a home run? Four innings? Five?</p> <p>Moving Zambrano to the bullpen shows the same type of horribly-myopic thinking as those prospects-for-middling-reliever deals I so dread. Given the rotation's respective bodies of work the last few seasons, I don't see how Zambrano can be any worse than the #3 starter on this team, behind Ryan Dempster (Starter D) and Lilly, provided the latter is actually healthy. If I were to prioritize which of the five current starters I'd move to the 'pen, I'd go Silva, Gorzelanny, Wells, Zambrano, Dempster.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUmapDUjGpnq-p5-gL0opWxg77zWfg5WgjE3pWqOGJWoed6HiHX1szRmL6mn-R-dZ8wNYTazAA6mEuuoUj_me7xMSXI5QS4FSCX1Zlhh6Q-u0sINuxk8bfbcbFP5FJscEpM2V9VPIly04/s1600/CashnerCub.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUmapDUjGpnq-p5-gL0opWxg77zWfg5WgjE3pWqOGJWoed6HiHX1szRmL6mn-R-dZ8wNYTazAA6mEuuoUj_me7xMSXI5QS4FSCX1Zlhh6Q-u0sINuxk8bfbcbFP5FJscEpM2V9VPIly04/s400/CashnerCub.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 298px;" border="0" /></a></p> <p>And really, just how much is Zambrano "struggling"? He undeniably had a <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0406-brite-cubs-braves-chicago--20100405,0,4743487.story" target="_blank">disastrous Opening Day</a>, and a quick glance reveals that his traditional stats through four starts -- which I think we can all agree is a totally-representative sample size, and should by all means be taken as the true measure of his ability while his 238 other career starts are completely ignored -- are pretty bad: 1-2, 7.45 ERA. But over his last three games, he's actually 1-1, 4.00, going at least five innings in each while allowing three earned runs or fewer.</p> <p>More importantly, though, his K-rate has been superb, with 26 in 19.1 innings. As always, he's walking too many guys, but his BB rate isn't that out of line with his career mark (4.1). So Zambrano's struggles are basically a function of two things over which he has varying degrees of control: home runs and hits allowed.</p> <p>Yes, the home run is one of the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=724" target="_blank">three true outcomes</a>, but as I mentioned earlier, there is still an element of luck involved in how many a pitcher yields, especially when you're talking about such a small sample size. After being remarkably stingy with the gopher ball for most of his career, including allowing just 10 homers in 169.1 IP last year, Zambrano has already given up four in 2010. But that's four lousy pitches; if two of them had turned into warning-track outs instead of clearing the fence, Zambrano's home run rate would be more or less in line with his career mark. And so this is largely the product of bad luck, which is borne out by his HR/FB ratio: it's at 21.1%, compared to his career mark of 9.1%. </p> <p>Zambrano's inflated BAA (.317) is a function of that absurd .435 BABiP, which is 54.3% higher than his career mark of .282. Now I suppose it's <i>possible</i> that he's suddenly become eminently hittable. There are, after all, some disturbing trends in his numbers. Since posting a phenomenal 54.4% ground ball rate in his first full season in '03, Zambrano's GB% has declined every year but one (in 2008, when it rocketed to 47.2% from 46.8%), reaching the low-water mark (44.7%) last season. This year it's at 39.3%, and although it's still plenty low enough to succeed, combined with his increasing line drive rate -- at 26.8% this year, compared to 18.7% for his career -- there are some causes for concern.</p> <p>But in looking at his strikeouts, it's clear that Zambrano's stuff is still plenty good enough to get major-league hitters out. Given the minuscule sample size -- and the inordinate effect one bad start has on overall numbers just a few games in -- it's infinitely more likely that he's merely the victim of some unfortunate early-season flukiness.</p> <p>And now the Cubs' entire season has become a victim of it, too. Because reducing Zambrano's workload by 120-or-so innings undoubtedly makes the team worse. I am painfully aware of just how bad the bullpen has been, but how much impact can one player can have on a seven-man relief corps?</p> <p>Besides, this is a horrifically bad allocation of resources. As best I can tell, no non-40-year-old-Panamian reliever has a deal that averages more than $12.5 million per season, and all the guys in that range are closers. Zambrano, owed the aforementioned $53.75 million over the next three years, basically makes one-and-a-half times that; he's paid the big bucks to log starter innings, and that's what the Cubs should have him doing.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgctNsXUQ29GnCU-ASpgjauyewa9f5oNMDjRPjT2dX-jeSpiUh2sr9eY58XWtaT_gbhlMii3tYuTG3V461j56DrIKjTGuVfbaxhOzU2l2nuXqu_ibFNGR_1oHFAw6oAaUciIijodqLKxlE/s1600/LamboZ.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgctNsXUQ29GnCU-ASpgjauyewa9f5oNMDjRPjT2dX-jeSpiUh2sr9eY58XWtaT_gbhlMii3tYuTG3V461j56DrIKjTGuVfbaxhOzU2l2nuXqu_ibFNGR_1oHFAw6oAaUciIijodqLKxlE/s400/LamboZ.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 297px;" border="0" /></a>If Zambrano were pitching atrociously, I'd applaud the Cubs for finally grasping the concept a <a href="http://top-people.starmedia.com/tmp/swotti/cacheYWXMB25ZBYBZB3JPYW5VUGVVCGXLLVBLB3BSZQ==/imgAlfonso%20Soriano2.jpg" target="_blank">sunk cost</a> and moving him to the 'pen. But he's not. To this point, it's been three decent starts, one horrible one, and whole lot of bad luck. To demote one of your best pitchers based on that, whether it's because you're dissatisfied with him, the bullpen, or a combination thereof, flat-out doesn't make sense. And what happens if Zambrano, who hasn't pitched in relief in eight years, gets injured because his body doesn't handle the sudden transition well? This is just awful on so many levels.</p> <p>You know, kind of like the Cubs.</p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-40810831637874184992010-04-20T08:34:00.003-05:002010-04-22T13:22:53.672-05:00Rough Draft: A (Not-So) Brief History of the Chicago Bears<span style="font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2009/03/rough-draft-recent-history-of-chicago.html" target="_blank"> Revised -- and shortened! -- from an entry originally posted 3/31/2009 </a></span><br /><a name="fb_share" type="button_count" href="http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php">Share</a><script src="http://static.ak.fbcdn.net/connect.php/js/FB.Share" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span>Typically the NFL Draft is my favorite time of the year. Because while I'm usually a curmudgeonly pessimist when it comes to sports, the draft is a time when anything seems possible and even I can be positive. Unfortunately, with the Bears having traded away their first round pick in the Jay Cutler deal (which I agreed with) and their second rounder to acquire Gaines Adams (which I didn't), I just haven't been feeling it. Even last year, when they were also without a pick until the third round, they had all their slotted choices for most of the offseason -- the Cutler trade didn't happened until April 2 -- and so this is really the first time since I was introduced to the internet that I haven't spent an insane number of hours researching potential Bears draftees.<br /><br />But the Bears not having a pick in the first two rounds can actually be a good thing, as it's usually those selections that leave me depressed. In a lot of ways, first rounders can only disappoint -- if they're good they're just living up to their draft status, and if they're terrible I end up devising different ways to accost general manager Jerry Angelo to deliver a kick in the teeth. Players from the later rounds, however, can only be pleasant surprises; anything you get from those guys is gravy, and so the potential is almost limitless. Traditionally, Day 2 -- and with the <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4351601" target="_blank">revamped format</a>, Day 3 -- is a time when I can dream of a seventh-round selection like Marcus Monk becoming the next Marques Colston, before the reality of his actual skill level gets in the way.<br /><br />The Bears were once one of the best-drafting teams in the NFL. They drafted Hall-of-Famer Bulldog Turner with the seventh overall selection in 1940, and Turner was All-Pro seven times; every other selection in that year's 22 rounds combined for one All-Pro season. Eight time All-Pro Bill George was a second-round pick, as was fellow Hall-of-Fame middle linebacker Mike Singletary. The Bears selected Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers <span style="font-style: italic;">in the same draft</span>, for crying out loud. Their 1983 class yielded an astonishing seven starters -- Jimbo Covert, Willie Gault, Mike Richardson, Dave Duerson, Tom Thayer, Richard Dent, and Mark Bortz -- on a team that won the Super Bowl just two years later. That's essentially 1/3 of a championship team's starting lineup from a single draft. Dent and Bortz enjoyed 15- and 12-year careers, respectively, after being selected in the now-defunct 8th round.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiaxwlk5X4bKBAG72s4RSHuJrSkZaARUFtN9NeJZKyZBWkI563_dRWUKnutvmtijvJhlIEoKC1lpsslJmb103aRcnvfFaO0xGXIobgGhzxjoEZbW18x-24z1lwDQVHOojl7_jIwR9ltbs/s1600/Bulldog.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 326px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiaxwlk5X4bKBAG72s4RSHuJrSkZaARUFtN9NeJZKyZBWkI563_dRWUKnutvmtijvJhlIEoKC1lpsslJmb103aRcnvfFaO0xGXIobgGhzxjoEZbW18x-24z1lwDQVHOojl7_jIwR9ltbs/s400/Bulldog.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5462359942533447714" border="0" /></a>From that '83 draft, however, there was nowhere to go but down, and that's exactly where the Bears have gone. It's been especially bad since '87, when snot-nosed Halas family scion Mike McCaskey canned general manager Jerry Vanisi. Then the organization lost its final link to greatness when Mike Ditka was fired in 1993, which is when I'll begin my analysis.<br /><br />After originally setting out to look at the Bears first round picks, and then later their first three selections, I ultimately settled on their first four picks. This is because I believe that the first four picks are where a team is really looking to fill its needs -- despite the <span style="font-style: italic;">best player available</span> rhetoric everyone spouts -- and they are also the source of a huge majority of a team's impact players.<br /><br />You're going to have to click on it unless you've set up your electron microscope, but please look at the table below. And <span style="font-style: italic;">really</span> look at it, because the goddamn thing took forever to compile. Anyway, all the players' names are preceded by their draft slot and followed by their position. Reading left to right, the first column has the Bears selections. The second contains what I have deemed to be the best combination of players at the same four positions using the picks the Bears had. Note that the positions do not have to be selected in the same order, just that the same four positions must be represented. The third column is the best overall combination of players the Bears could have had with those picks, regardless of position, while the fourth contains other possibilities they could/should have considered. The fifth column -- headed 'I was prayin' for...' -- has the player I personally wanted that year,* while the last one contains miscellaneous tidbits.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9SuxIFwBPJNpsIFq12PYsiJW-8p_vjA87iFE9mAGcfrEl1Aa3O1OIDOZOi1hM9wfiJSGRdLTYYTfAchQ_SnX7ejMjSlyNF5sKaUfEk7NgtuJcnMq-5E_f55Fc-bhXQaLp0-rNZGvDr1c/s1600/Chart.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 383px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9SuxIFwBPJNpsIFq12PYsiJW-8p_vjA87iFE9mAGcfrEl1Aa3O1OIDOZOi1hM9wfiJSGRdLTYYTfAchQ_SnX7ejMjSlyNF5sKaUfEk7NgtuJcnMq-5E_f55Fc-bhXQaLp0-rNZGvDr1c/s400/Chart.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5462349372441668242" border="0" /></a>*<span style="font-style: italic;"> L</span><span style="font-style: italic;">et me just preemptively stress that the players in the "I was prayin' for..." column really are the guys I wanted at that time. It seems a tad bit convenient, that someone who calls himself Mr. Sports Know-It-All allegedly liked the guys who ended up being the best players. But in at least two of those cases -- Warren Sapp and Randy Moss -- everyone knew they were exceptional talents, and they only dropped because of marijuana-based "character" issues, which I couldn't care less about. And it's not like I was alone in wanting Sapp and Moss; besides, I was also prayin' for Rickey Dudley and Mike Williams, so it's not like I'm going to make anyone forget Bill Polian any time soon.</span><br /><br />What follows is the yearly breakdown. The assigned grades are based more on how well the Bears maximized the talent available in the specific draft, rather than the quality of the players they actually chose; that is, getting two decent starters in a terrible draft rates higher than getting three in a great one.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1993:</span> Curtis Conway was actually pretty effective for some time, but considering the quality of this draft -- and the trio of All-Pros taken consecutively behind him -- it wasn't a very good pick. Carl Sampson and Chris Gedney gave the Bears nothing, and while Todd Perry had some pretty good years, Will Shields is a no-doubt Hall of Famer, assuming they're still letting offensive linemen in. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: D-</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1994:</span> The Bears picks weren't exactly great, but the entire draft wasn't either, with hardly any stars to be had. John Thierry did nothing but spawn horrible puns like this one: <span style="font-style: italic;">My Thierry on John is that he sucked</span>. I loved Raymont Harris' UltraBack persona, but two quality RBs (Dorsey Levens and Jamal Anderson) were chosen after him, and he couldn't stay healthy. Jim Flanigan recorded an impressive-for-a-DT 40.5 sacks in his six years with the Bears, a span in which he started every game. As for the hoped-for Shante Carver, let's just say that I may have overrated the skills of Pac-10 players a tad during my Cal years. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: C-</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1995:</span> Some thought it a steal when Heisman Trophy winner Rashaan Salaam fell to the Bears. It wasn't. He just didn't have enough speed to play in the NFL. As a defensive tackle. And sorry Todd Sauerbrun, but unless a guy can average 75 yards a kick with 14 second hang time, I ain't drafting a punter before the sixth round, "HANGTIME" vanity plates notwithstanding. Which is why I didn't in my draft re-creation, taking a guard (which the Bears selected fifth) instead. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: F</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1996</span>: The Bears actually did a pretty good job here, in terms of getting long-time starters; unfortunately, most of those starts came for other teams. Now 14 years in, Walt Harris and Bobby Engram were still first-string until recently and Chris Villarrial started 148 games in his 11-year career. Even Paul Grasmanis played nine seasons. But the Bears didn't select any <span style="font-style: italic;">stars</span> and this draft was loaded with 'em. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: C</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1997</span>: As a longtime Notre Dame hater, I wanted to kick Touchdown Jesus in the balls when the Bears blew their first rounder in a trade for Rick Mirer, who'd already proven he was a bust in Seattle. Granted, there weren't a whole lot of great QBs available -- Jake Plummer (29,253) was the only one to even top 3,000 career yards -- but still. At least Mirer actually played, which is more than their three picks can say. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: F-<br /><br /></span><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSekjfWb59427H4Jsk50_h4_WH_3lB5cfOFb2qkKGFX26zbFhHjCVQ2tXKZwMVThfnWAd2vHvCYEZwQTt86rWX1QLHbNqJvjoCxklN5Sq-Kb2xbPBOpG9D5ZcnG8SfcSNk2kHMsLuUeX8/s1600/TDJesus.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 305px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSekjfWb59427H4Jsk50_h4_WH_3lB5cfOFb2qkKGFX26zbFhHjCVQ2tXKZwMVThfnWAd2vHvCYEZwQTt86rWX1QLHbNqJvjoCxklN5Sq-Kb2xbPBOpG9D5ZcnG8SfcSNk2kHMsLuUeX8/s400/TDJesus.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5462359937633125698" border="0" /></a><span style="font-weight: bold;">1998</span>: This was billed it as a five-player draft -- Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf (umm...), Andre Wadsworth (ditto), Randy Moss, and Charles Woodson -- and the Bears were picking fifth. Most people thought they'd get Wadsworth, and I actually would've been happy with that. But I wanted Moss, whose playmaking at Marshall had become a SportsCenter staple. When the Cards took Wadsworth and Raiders Woodson, Moss was practically wearing a Bears uniform. Instead they chose Curtis Enis** and Moss fell all the way to the Vikings at 21, ensuring we'd all have to watch him humiliate the Bears twice a year.<br /><br />** <span style="font-style: italic;">The only upside was I spent most of his brief career saying "Curtis Enis hurt his penis," which never actually happened but should have. At around the same time, my friend Peter liked to say, "Ow, that's my Dick Jauron." It was all very mature, really. </span><br /><br />Tony Parrish and Olin Kreutz were both very good selections -- really, Lance Schulters and Matt Birk over them was a total toss-up, and at least partially included for variety's sake -- but you've got to nail those Top-5 picks. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: C-</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1999</span>: Rex Tucker was the only one who gave the Bears anything. Russell Davis was let go way to early, and D'Wayne Bates was chosen because scouting him at Northwestern was much cheaper than booking a flight out of state. In the first round, the Bears were originally on the board at seven, where early projections had them getting local kid Donovan McNabb, whose workouts shot him up the board for the right to be booed by Eagles fans. So the Bears traded down to select Cade McNown, while their original pick became Champ Bailey. Let's just say that history has not been kind to that trade. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: Z-</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2000</span>: Although I loved his name, I actually wasn't crazy about Brian Urlacher when the Bears drafted him, mostly because the highlight package ESPN showed just wasn't that impressive. (I later realized that this was because all the clips came from the one New Mexico game they had the rights to.) Urlacher ended up being the best sideline-to-sideline MLB I've ever seen. And while Mike Brown ultimately couldn't stay on the field, that's still two top-quality starters from a draft that wasn't all that good. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: A</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2001</span>: David Terrell was a receiver who couldn't catch, but boy did he look good not doing it. What's particularly egregious is that 2001 was an unbelievable draft for receivers -- Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Chris Chambers, Steve Smith, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh all were picked <span style="font-style: italic;">after</span> Terrell. Anthony Thomas had a good rookie season and briefly captured the city's imagination courtesy of his cool moniker, but Angelo was right: The A-Train was not a "special back." Plus, taking two players from the same school (Michigan) with your first two picks just reeks of scouting laziness to me. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: F+</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2002</span>: In a terrible year with very little depth, Jerry Angelo did about as well as could be expected in his first draft. Marc Colombo is a starter for the Cowboys, but had 62 major injuries in his three-plus seasons in Chicago. He was like Kerry Wood and Mark Prior rolled into one, and I mean that literally, too -- he's about the size of both those guys combined. Just a gigantic human being. The Dwight Freeney thing was a complete pipe dream, once again fueled by the experts early projections; he would've looked great in a Bears uniform had he fallen that far, although recently-released Alex Brown gave them excellent value as a fourth-rounder. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: B-</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2003</span>: The Bears ended up flipping the fourth overall pick to the Jets for a pair of firsts, missing out on perennial Pro Bowlers Terrell Suggs and Kevin Williams in the process. Instead they got Michael Haynes and Rex Grossman.^ Haynes started just four games in his career, but Grossman's the one universally reviled as a bust.<br /><br />^ <span style="font-style: italic;">I should add that in another overt act of scouting dereliction, the Bears somehow managed to select four players -- Grossman, S Todd Johnson, and DTs Ian Scott and the somehow-wasn't-a-superstar-despite-the-kickass-name Tron LaFavor -- from the University of Florida. I mean, there is NO WAY four guys from the same school could have been the best player available at each spot. That's like a quadrillion-to-one shot.</span><br /><br />The Bears did, however, do very well with their next two picks, Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs, both of whom have been top-notch starters from the get-go. They also got some contributors in the later rounds, but whiffing on two top-25 picks in a draft that yielded as many studs as this one really hurts. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: C</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2004</span>: The Bears did extremely well here in the short term, but this class has aged worse than Nikki Cox. I preferred Vince Wilfork's power over Tommie Harris' quickness, but his agility made him a better fit for Lovie Smith's scheme. Tank Johnson was a great tag-team partner for Harris, but his off-the-field issues derailed his Bears career. Like Harris, Nathan Vasher was very good before durability issues ruined him, and Bernard Berrian's given me almost as much pleasure as a free-agent bust with the Vikings as he did as the Bears' deep threat.<span style="font-weight: bold;"> Grade: B-<br /><br /></span><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd9gjJv-3haslRiYfGa-JPrPmfUpk2hcqQlS4jfwUapTJqhWYBGlmscGOdXleYzEUVx_NiPQXLbd3UO3tZpWH1-h4KH2t6_lYaKxt7GaBPkFr-D470LJzrf4rmpbPolh8O0HTW0EU4JPQ/s1600/Harris.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 344px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd9gjJv-3haslRiYfGa-JPrPmfUpk2hcqQlS4jfwUapTJqhWYBGlmscGOdXleYzEUVx_NiPQXLbd3UO3tZpWH1-h4KH2t6_lYaKxt7GaBPkFr-D470LJzrf4rmpbPolh8O0HTW0EU4JPQ/s400/Harris.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5462349386824878210" border="0" /></a><span style="font-weight: bold;">2005</span>: I was absolutely furious when the Bears passed on can't-miss WR Mike Williams in favor of Cedric Benson. Not only did they not have any viable receivers, they also had signed running back Thomas Jones to a four-year deal just a season earlier. Plus, I thought Benson would suck. And his infamous crying on draft day -- when he basically admonished anyone for having the audacity to question his checkered past -- was so appalling that I was wholly convinced he was Curtis Enis 2.0. Of course, now that he's gone, he's turned into Earl Campbell. Perfect.<br /><br />Mark Bradley wasn't a disappointment when he wasn't injured, which wasn't often. The Bears paid Adewale Ogunleye superstar money for super-so-so production, and Orton's now in Denver, familiarly trying to <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5020773" target="_blank">fend off a guy</a> with a better draft pedigree. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: D-</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2006</span>: This draft probably got the worst immediate reception, but it actually was one of Angelo's better efforts. With the entire fan base clamoring for more offense -- in 2005, the Bears had finished 26th in points scored and 29th in total offense, and first in points allowed and second in total defense -- Angelo arrogantly used his first five picks (including DE Mark Anderson, who recorded 12 sacks as a rookie in limited playing time) on defensive guys.<br /><br />Devin Hester was an once-in-a-lifetime force of nature on special teams, but the Bears decided to trade that guy for an overpaid receiver with middling production. Danieal Manning is also very good in the return game, but five years in, the Bears still haven't decided on his position. Dvoracek looked pretty good when healthy, which, like fellow Sooners Tommie Harris and Mark Bradley, was never, and Jamar Williams has shown flashes in his limited opportunities. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: C+</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2007:</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span>Finally, the Bears took the guy that everybody wanted. Unfortunately, Olsen's been a mild disappointment; while productive, he hasn't quite had the breakout many predicted last season. And the rest of this draft was downright terrible. In a rarity for a second round pick, Bazuin has yet to play a game in the NFL. Neither has Michael Okwo. And while Garrett Wolfe is a microscopic dervish on special teams and has improved as a ball carrier, his durability's an issue. Add it all up, and you've got an awful ROI on three top-100 picks. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: D</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2008</span>: The Bears got their whole 2008 offense in Matt Forte. However, this is what I said last offseason:<br /><blockquote><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">Though he was undoubtedly productive, his yards per carry (3.9) worry me a little, and there were a ton of good RBs in this draft.</span><br /></blockquote>Chris Williams appears to be the future at left tackle (though he hardly looked dominant last year) and I wouldn't have ignored the medical reports on his back, which has already cost him one season. I like Marcus Harrison, but I thought he would've taken a bigger step forward last year. And while Bennett started last year, he shouldn't have; that amazing chemistry with fellow Commodore Cutler yielded all of two touchdowns. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: C+</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2009: </span>I liked the Bears draft a lot in the <a href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2009/04/what-if-bears-had-draft-and-i-wasnt.html" target="_blank">immediate aftermath</a>, but thus far they've gotten far more from their fifth- and sixth-round picks (Johnny Knox and Al Afalava, respectively) than any of their first four. In fact, Henry Melton and D.J. Moore never suited up last year, Juaquin Iglesias played in one receptionless game and Gilbert made one tackle. Still, given they had no picks in the first two rounds and it's still early, I'll withhold my scathing judgment for now. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grade: I</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cumulative Draft GPA: 1.5</span><br /><br />And that's the Chicago Bears, not exactly the NFL's honor student. But while the Bears rarely did well as they could have, the same is true for every single team in the league. No organization ever drafts perfectly, or even comes close. Because even when a team gets a 6th-round Pro Bowler, they still passed on him five times just like everybody else. In fact, the key is not to never miss, but to hit home runs just a little more frequently than the competition. Because if you can serendipitously land a Tom Brady every so often, you just might build a championship team.<br /><br />Reduced to the most basic of terms, the Bears just haven't found enough impact players via the draft. Their 1993-2009 drafts produced four players -- Kreutz, Urlacher, Briggs, and Tommie Harris -- who have earned multiple Pro Bowl berths with the team; as a comparison, the Colts, Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers, have all found at least seven of those guys, and the Lions and Raiders just three. Just like in the standings, the Bears have been much closer to the bottom than the top. Hopefully, even without a pick until the third round, that can change in 2010. It is, after all, the NFL Draft. And anything is possible.Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-67025859726859884462010-04-17T10:39:00.004-05:002010-04-22T13:22:28.600-05:00Lucky 7: Bulls-Cavaliers<a name="fb_share" type="button_count" href="http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php">Share</a><script src="http://static.ak.fbcdn.net/connect.php/js/FB.Share" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><p>Well, the Bulls did it. They're in the playoffs, which seemed a virtual impossibility just a few weeks ago. They showed a remarkable amount of resiliency and gumption in pulling off a comeback from near-oblivion, which is why I don't think they will be satisfied with merely making the postseason. And so here are seven things I'd like to see in their best-of-seven first round series with the Cleveland Cavaliers:</p> <p> <b>1. Joakim Noah staying out of foul trouble</b><br />If I were the Cavs, I would hammer the ball into Shaquille O'Neal in the early going in hopes of picking up fouls on Noah and getting him out of the game. Because as we saw during the Bulls' 10-game losing streak when Noah was sidelined with his plantar fasciitis recurrence, that would have a devastating effect on Chicago's ability to compete.</p> <p>The Bulls are completely reliant on Noah's defense, rebounding, and energy. Plus, his game on the offensive end has become increasingly valuable, with crisp interior passing and an improving outside shot and post game. The upshot is, they need Noah out there for as many minutes as possible; if he's limited by foul trouble, the Bulls long odds become nonexistent.</p> <p><b><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgJTGmqFDLQ2WERRHA6n-Lgn1SwBNTTLxZBHPi-7JbVMCp2gvoKwio11Zi9LrlYURerRGNaJ68hdj3uxMHxK3jUwPNJ_Gq21M0Ba1zOe12eOHC-xfuq4d1sSesH_qSqqmgYEEV7EV7jIo/s1600/Sequel.jpg" mce_href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgJTGmqFDLQ2WERRHA6n-Lgn1SwBNTTLxZBHPi-7JbVMCp2gvoKwio11Zi9LrlYURerRGNaJ68hdj3uxMHxK3jUwPNJ_Gq21M0Ba1zOe12eOHC-xfuq4d1sSesH_qSqqmgYEEV7EV7jIo/s1600/Sequel.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 339px; height: 400px;" mce_style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 339px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgJTGmqFDLQ2WERRHA6n-Lgn1SwBNTTLxZBHPi-7JbVMCp2gvoKwio11Zi9LrlYURerRGNaJ68hdj3uxMHxK3jUwPNJ_Gq21M0Ba1zOe12eOHC-xfuq4d1sSesH_qSqqmgYEEV7EV7jIo/s400/Sequel.jpg" mce_src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgJTGmqFDLQ2WERRHA6n-Lgn1SwBNTTLxZBHPi-7JbVMCp2gvoKwio11Zi9LrlYURerRGNaJ68hdj3uxMHxK3jUwPNJ_Gq21M0Ba1zOe12eOHC-xfuq4d1sSesH_qSqqmgYEEV7EV7jIo/s400/Sequel.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5461128837755911874" border="0" /></a>2. Derrick Rose taking over in crunch time<br /></b>I'm still not sure what to make of Rose as the Bulls' end-of-game alpha dog. Sometimes he seems like he's ready to seize that role, and others -- like the recent loss to the Nets -- he seems to shrink from the moment. I am very curious to see how he does in this series. I don't expect him to be able to go shot-for-shot with LeBron James -- whose sheer force of will should prove to be the biggest difference in this series -- but I'm hoping he at least shows he wants to try.</p> <p>In last year's first-round epic with the Celtics, Rose deferred to Ben Gordon in the big moments. Was that because of Gordon stepping up, or because Rose stepped aside? This series will be a real litmus test of exactly where Rose is as a player: Can he carry a franchise, or is he better suited to being the league's best second banana?</p> <p><b>3. A shortened rotation that includes James Johnson</b><br />Johnson deserves to play for a few reasons:<br />A. He is possibly the only player on the Bulls -- and certainly the only one on their bench -- with the size/strength/quickness combo to at least be a minor distraction for LeBron when he's defending him.<br />B. He played very well in the 92-85 loss to the Cavs -- 16 points on 11 shots, 8 rebounds, 2 steals and a block with a best-among-starters minus-1 in 36 minutes -- when Rose, Noah, and Luol Deng were all sidelined with injuries.<br />C. The reps he (and fellow rookie Taj Gibson) get in the playoffs now could be invaluable in the future. The Bulls have virtually no chance at winning the series; so why play someone like Hakim Warrick -- who's not a part of their plans going forward -- at the expense of Johnson, who is?</p> <p><b>4. Jannero Pargo glued to the bench</b><br />It wouldn't be one of my list posts without an item referencing Pargo's enduring crappiness and Del Negro's steadfast refusal to keep him from the court. And yet, in a triumph of the human spirit, I continue to dream of a Pargo-free world.</p> <p> <a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0CHuVX1umHIDz1P6ZkvIsn8RrKWgoEYwZNTHhSG99Q0McnUBoD-2rUsPffphaIsqyP0-gcAnnde4UIep9s8jeiAPxUavcwi4eeqCRAH41g2dNpRroWWFukt9Sg8acfRmAIUF6ODHarKo/s1600/PargoGlue.jpg" mce_href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0CHuVX1umHIDz1P6ZkvIsn8RrKWgoEYwZNTHhSG99Q0McnUBoD-2rUsPffphaIsqyP0-gcAnnde4UIep9s8jeiAPxUavcwi4eeqCRAH41g2dNpRroWWFukt9Sg8acfRmAIUF6ODHarKo/s1600/PargoGlue.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 312px;" mce_style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 312px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0CHuVX1umHIDz1P6ZkvIsn8RrKWgoEYwZNTHhSG99Q0McnUBoD-2rUsPffphaIsqyP0-gcAnnde4UIep9s8jeiAPxUavcwi4eeqCRAH41g2dNpRroWWFukt9Sg8acfRmAIUF6ODHarKo/s400/PargoGlue.jpg" mce_src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0CHuVX1umHIDz1P6ZkvIsn8RrKWgoEYwZNTHhSG99Q0McnUBoD-2rUsPffphaIsqyP0-gcAnnde4UIep9s8jeiAPxUavcwi4eeqCRAH41g2dNpRroWWFukt9Sg8acfRmAIUF6ODHarKo/s400/PargoGlue.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5461128835297657826" border="0" /></a><b>5. A Game 5</b><br />While I certainly don't think the Bulls will win the series, I do believe they can at least win a game. Everyone -- I'm speaking nationally here -- is looking at them as nothing more than sacrificial lambs; all seven of the <a target="_blank" href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010/news/story?page=Smackdown-10" mce_href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010/news/story?page=Smackdown-10">TrueHoop Network's legitimate contributors</a> are predicting Cavs in 4. But I'm hoping for just a bit more. As good as Cleveland is, I'm guessing the Bulls will show plenty of fight, and given that they are actually pretty formidable themselves when healthy, should be able to steal a game at some point.</p> <p><b>6. A Game 6</b><br />Alright, so I'm greedy.</p> <p><b>7. A Game <strike>7</strike> Luol Deng</b><br />In the Bulls final three games -- all must wins in the playoff push -- Deng appeared to be lost when he wasn't completely disinterested. Despite playing 35 minutes per contest, he averaged just 10.7 points on 40% shooting. In 104 total minutes, he did not block a shot and had just two steals. Call me crazy, but I generally want to see a bit more production from The Six Million Dollar (Per Half-Season) Man.</p> <p> <a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9XtZdRGbZY4RReR36ltMPUUqweyiJE6c0t273ojtPv-pPuurWnzHwngywtgxQCXLEe1sAsz1Hvy2v-eP_QizxbCYExkgfDGmDrTuASTbC1IM4150nZnRkIQoBymny5v_m2sZL2Zu144/s1600/Assassin.jpg" mce_href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9XtZdRGbZY4RReR36ltMPUUqweyiJE6c0t273ojtPv-pPuurWnzHwngywtgxQCXLEe1sAsz1Hvy2v-eP_QizxbCYExkgfDGmDrTuASTbC1IM4150nZnRkIQoBymny5v_m2sZL2Zu144/s1600/Assassin.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 301px;" mce_style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 301px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9XtZdRGbZY4RReR36ltMPUUqweyiJE6c0t273ojtPv-pPuurWnzHwngywtgxQCXLEe1sAsz1Hvy2v-eP_QizxbCYExkgfDGmDrTuASTbC1IM4150nZnRkIQoBymny5v_m2sZL2Zu144/s400/Assassin.jpg" mce_src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9XtZdRGbZY4RReR36ltMPUUqweyiJE6c0t273ojtPv-pPuurWnzHwngywtgxQCXLEe1sAsz1Hvy2v-eP_QizxbCYExkgfDGmDrTuASTbC1IM4150nZnRkIQoBymny5v_m2sZL2Zu144/s400/Assassin.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5461128827444964578" border="0" /></a>I don't expect Deng to recapture the magic he showed in the Bulls shocking first-round sweep of the defending champion Miami Heat in 2007 -- for whatever reason, he's no longer the player that averaged 26.3 points on 57.9% shooting in that series. But he needs to be <i>a</i> player. The Bulls infinitesimal chances of <a target="_blank" href="http://www.suntimes.com/sports/basketball/bulls/2163198,bulls-cavs-joakim-noah-15.article" mce_href="http://www.suntimes.com/sports/basketball/bulls/2163198,bulls-cavs-joakim-noah-15.article">shocking the world</a> hinge on Deng being an engaged and productive #3 behind Rose and Noah.</p> <p><b>Series prediction: Cavs in 5.5</b></p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-2373227668365643042010-04-14T19:22:00.003-05:002010-04-15T12:20:39.995-05:00I wish someone would grab Reggie Miller's tie<a name="fb_share" type="button_count" href="http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php">Share</a><script src="http://static.ak.fbcdn.net/connect.php/js/FB.Share" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><p>A coupla things knocking around the ol' thinkblob:</p> <p><b>Relax Pax: Attacks Lacks Facts, Impacts Axe; Syntax Lax</b></p> <p>My first reaction to the <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5083339">story about an altercation</a> between VP John Paxson and coach Vinny Del Negro was a smart-ass one: <i>Who hasn't wanted to punch Vinny Del Negro?</i></p> <p>But that's not really fair. The story, if true, speaks badly of Paxson's management style, but it's also something that I don't think is all that uncommon in the testosterone-fueled world of professional sports. Be it <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/gallery/featured/GAL1143695/18/18/index.htm" target="_blank">Billy Martin challenging Reggie Jackson</a> to a fight, or Buddy Ryan taking a swing at Kevin Gilbride, this is the kind of stuff that happens among the alpha males who dominate athletics.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9Uo5yuU3puPYaU3m5la1Oa5CxNjhoN1YD5QkQcWyCia-b2iJ2yDoxRPz_BIAdGoGzZIkJ76FRqoDBw7yErqTt4bveeD8-WcbTAA7e8W24QT7gmxUbXNFXpF4KP5R6TGcMiGV2l74jcIc/s1600/HD.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9Uo5yuU3puPYaU3m5la1Oa5CxNjhoN1YD5QkQcWyCia-b2iJ2yDoxRPz_BIAdGoGzZIkJ76FRqoDBw7yErqTt4bveeD8-WcbTAA7e8W24QT7gmxUbXNFXpF4KP5R6TGcMiGV2l74jcIc/s400/HD.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 339px;" border="0" /></a>Let's take the story -- the original one, not the <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5086856" target="_blank">transparent subterfuge</a> the Bulls PR department has apparently planted in response -- as true on its face; that is, that Paxson was angry that Del Negro again went over the medically-prescribed minute limits for Joakim Noah.</p> <p>Seeing as how the previous over-usage of a recuperating Noah -- in the 115-111 OT win over Portland in February -- caused a recurrence of the injury and led to Noah missing the next 10 games (all losses), is it any wonder that Paxson would be furious that Del Negro did it again? I would be.</p> <p>For those (like Reggie Miller) that are saying the coach should decide playing time, that cannot be the case when it comes to injuries. I'm old enough to remember Michael Jordan coming back from a broken foot in the '85-'86 season, and his minutes were rigidly scheduled. In the beginning, he played like four minutes per half, then six, then eight, etc. A coach almost never has the player's best interest in mind, so when it comes to situations like these, the front office -- who works more closely with team doctors -- has to intervene.</p> <p>Still, trying to fight your employee is probably not the best way to resolve your differences. Terminating him would be. Which I'm sure will be the end result once the season is complete. The question is, will Paxson be around to do the firing?</p> <p>I have no idea how Jerry Reinsdorf is going to react to this, but it certainly hasn't made the Bulls look very good at a time when they need to be seen as a first-class organization in order to lure a marquee free agent. And it's not like Paxson has been any better at his job than Del Negro is at his: Paxson has assembled a fringe-playoff team, and as coach Del Negro has them on the fringes of the playoffs. While I want to see Del Negro let go because I believe a high-profile job like Bulls head coach deserves someone elite, he is no more incompetent than anyone else in the organization.</p> <p>And that's just sad.</p> <p><b>Marv Albert + Mike Fratello > Any other broadcast team > Marv Albert + Mike Fratello + Reggie Miller</b></p> <p>That's how bad Miller is; he makes the entire audio broadcast borderline intolerable. He takes totally indefensible positions -- regardless of what the team doctors may have said, Del Negro should have played Noah because Noah wanted to play more; first KC Johnson shouldn't have sat on Pax-VDN story only to release it, then when Craig Sager clarified Johnson's role, he shouldn't have confirmed the original report by Adrian Wojnarowski -- and pontificates endlessly about them in a most inarticulate way, because he's roughly 37 billion times less intelligent than he thinks he is.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnQs5rnw3NLXNRLfFsZYnYE4mZi535FzNzpq_IYAFmp8B1oHSI_5ojkrRBqgX7xLF4Dyqk8a6vRbAt4WDdZZQ0uGlBGydvdbbIimCLrcoX7z5dUtjrcKf-oRNMRNOGI3XZW9yMrvtUjls/s1600/PargoMiller.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnQs5rnw3NLXNRLfFsZYnYE4mZi535FzNzpq_IYAFmp8B1oHSI_5ojkrRBqgX7xLF4Dyqk8a6vRbAt4WDdZZQ0uGlBGydvdbbIimCLrcoX7z5dUtjrcKf-oRNMRNOGI3XZW9yMrvtUjls/s400/PargoMiller.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 315px;" border="0" /></a>And I actually enjoyed Miller's antics as a player. But he should not be in a nationally-televised broadcasting role. He adds absolutely nothing; instead he merely enrages me when I'm forced to listen to him instead of hearing some actual insight / witty banter between Albert and Fratello. That TNT thought there was something wrong with the Marv-Czar pairing is inexplicable. Those guys don't need a third man, and TNT's execs have failed to heed one of sports' most inviolable precepts: If it ain't broke, don't fix it.</p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-27924775568439178502010-04-14T18:58:00.004-05:002010-04-15T00:17:27.223-05:00With this Bulls team, you never knowTuesday's 101-93 dispatching of the Boston Celtics was a huge win for the Bulls. But their work in claiming a playoff spot is only partially completed. <p>Yes, it was great to see Derrick Rose really come through in crunch time, scoring 17 of his career-high 39 points in the fourth quarter, and even hitting a pair of (semi-)clutch free throws. And Kirk Hinrich had a superb shooting game in scoring 30, although it would be foolhardy to think that it is something he could do consistently.</p> <p>But even though the Bulls are ostensibly that much closer to the postseason, for some reason I am not feeling very confident today. Actually, I know the reason: This season, the Bulls have too often followed a big win with an even bigger loss, as I've seen several great performances succeeded by some major defecation in their pantaloons. To wit:</p> <table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 334px; height: 288px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 109pt;" width="145" height="17"><b>Big Win</b></td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 109pt;" width="145"><b>Next Game</b></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. GSW, 96-91 (OT)</td> <td class="xl24">L vs. BOS, 106-80</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. ATL, 101-98 (OT)</td> <td class="xl24">L vs. SAC, 102-98</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. ORL, 101-93</td> <td class="xl24">L vs. OKC, 98-85</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">@ NO, 108-106 (OT)</td> <td class="xl24">L vs. LAC, 90-82</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. PHI, 122-90</td> <td class="xl24">L @ WAS, 101-95</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. POR, 115-111 (OT)</td> <td class="xl24">L @ IND, 100-90</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. HOU, 98-88</td> <td class="xl24">L vs. MIA, 103-74</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. CHA, 96-88</td> <td class="xl24">L vs. MIL, 79-74</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. CLE, 109-108</td> <td class="xl24">L @ NJ, 127-116 (2OT)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vs. BOS, 101-93</td> <td class="xl24">??? @ CHA</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>Quite simply, the Bulls can't afford a similar letdown. Regardless of who is/isn't playing substantial minutes for the Bobcats, Chicago needs to have another performance worthy of a playoff team. Hopefully, I'm just worrying over nothing, but it would be just like this team to get everyone's hopes back up only to crush them with a pitiful showing.</p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-62349846874762183292010-04-13T17:10:00.008-05:002010-04-22T13:27:31.754-05:008 keys to the 8 seedWith 80 games down and two to play, and despite everything that's come before this, the Bulls<a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nba/teams/CHI" class="sbn-auto-link"></a> control their own playoff destiny. Sunday's 104-88 win in Toronto assured that. <p>However, the picture is not as rosy as you might think. After the Raptors surprisingly-easy 111-97 win in Detroit on Monday, the Playoff Odds are not in the Bulls' favor. And they're not even close, really. ESPN.com's John Hollinger gives Chicago just a 28.5% of edging the Raptors, which falls between Basketball-Reference.com's odds (29.5%) and CoolStandings.com's (28.2%).</p> <p>I believe the Bulls' chances are, in reality, slightly better than that. For starters, their final opponent, Charlotte, has its playoff seeding locked in, and with nothing left to play for is likely to rest its regulars, regardless of any <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/14895/bobcats-locked-in-as-no-7-seed-but-will-not-rest-wed-vs-chicago" target="_blank">claims to the contrary</a>. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of tonight's opponent, Boston. The Celtics still have an outside shot at grabbing the Eastern Conference's 3-seed -- they need to win their final two and Atlanta would have to lose to a Cavaliers team that only cares about staying healthy. Plus, after last year's hard-fought and sometimes acrimonious first-round playoff series, I'm sure Boston would love to knock the Bulls out of the postseason yet again.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the Raptors play the Knicks at home, a game everyone (but me) is talking about as a gimme. I actually think New York will win. I have a few reasons, other than it's what I'm hoping will happen: 1) The Knicks' style is very similar to Toronto's, only they do it better. 2) While the Raptors are working on a sweep of the season series, they've won the games by eight, six, and two points, and all but one of those was with the injured Chris Bosh playing. 3) Mike D'Antoni is so superior as a coach to Jay Triano that I really think he'll have his guys amped up for the game, and the Knicks will treat it like their playoffs, while the Raptors will think they can just skate to the win.</p> <p>Having said that, the Bulls can't count on getting any help, and have to assume that they need to win both games to get in. They can't do anything about the winnable games that they've dropped down the stretch; they have to look forward and do whatever it takes to come out on top in these last two. Here's a helpful list of things they can do to ensure they walk away with the eight seed:</p> <p><b>1. Limit the turnovers</b><br />The Bulls have won four of their last six. In the losses to Milwaukee and New Jersey, they had 16 and 17 turnovers, respectively. In the four wins, they've been remarkably consistent, turning the ball over 10 times twice and 11 times in the other two. That's a difference of six turnovers per game between the wins and the losses. Keep the turnovers to 13 or less, and the Bulls will have a very good chance of winning both games.</p> <p><b>2. Play Joakim Noah in crunch time</b><br />Look, most of these are going to fall into the <i>Duh</i> category. But the more I watch, the more that it's clear to me that this is not Derrick Rose's team -- it's Noah's. Noah is the leader, it's Noah's energy the team feeds off of, and it's Noah who's their best crunch-time performer.</p> <p>So he needs to be out there. None of this ridiculous offense/defense thing at the end of games with Brad Miller. Sorry, but Noah is the more productive offensive player. Sure, Miller might be the better shooter, but Noah does so much more offensively, most notably crashing the boards for tip-ins. At this point, Noah is the superior player on both ends.</p> <p>Besides, Noah is about the only guy on the team that doesn't wither in the clutch, making him one of the players I'd trust most with late-game free throws. And at .754 overall from the line, he basically shoots the same as Rose (.761), Luol Deng (.766), and Kirk Hinrich (.750) even when there's no pressure on.</p> <p><b>3. Use newly-signed Rob Kurz to pull a Gillooly on Jannero Pargo</b><br />I don't know how many times I've said that Pargo needs to stop playing, but he continues to get his 15 minutes a game. So if horrible shot selection and all-around ghastly play can't take Pargo out of the lineup, maybe a lead pipe to the shins will.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNZ3aSiAtoYUsL2FlsX2ZdpAf3pc5iX2A_jUnK4VJtdCKke_qsJcZfJRjFTPkI-JJPBkNHtbO5_jK2XEWykcGF8DViioZIh_x1iO1HEn89zugRq8CAN829g-sFPq1jpj0eIr7uj6BZdZo/s1600/MVP.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNZ3aSiAtoYUsL2FlsX2ZdpAf3pc5iX2A_jUnK4VJtdCKke_qsJcZfJRjFTPkI-JJPBkNHtbO5_jK2XEWykcGF8DViioZIh_x1iO1HEn89zugRq8CAN829g-sFPq1jpj0eIr7uj6BZdZo/s400/MVP.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 305px;" border="0" /></a><b>4. Stop focusing on the officiating</b><br />The Bulls veteran "leaders" -- I'm thinking of Hinrich and Miller -- are two of the biggest whiners in the league. According to them, they've never committed a foul, and every whistle against them is an injustice of the highest order. When they're not arguing the calls made against them, they're badgering the refs for non-calls on their missed shots / turnovers.</p> <p>Unfortunately, this attitude has rubbed off on the rest of the team. Especially Rose.</p> <p>Yes, the questionable calls in the Nets game hurt, but a bigger reason for the loss -- and the Bulls blowing a 7-point lead in the final minute of the first overtime -- was that they allowed their focus to be overcome by the officiating. Instead of putting any no-calls behind them, the Bulls allowed them to fester, and in the process lost track of the important thing -- doing whatever it took to come away with the win.</p> <p><b>5. When Derrick Rose gets frustrated, take him out of the game</b><br />More than anyone else, Rose clearly let the way the game was officiated get to him. It started with his foul-plus-flagrant early in the fourth, and continued more or less until the moment he fouled out.</p> <p>I understand that he's still a kid, and prone to getting frustrated. Shit, if I were him, I'd be frustrated too. One of the great mysteries to me is how Rose can go to the hole so often, and yet draw so few fouls. Last year, I would've chalked it up to him being a rookie, except the Thunder's Russell Westbrook got to the line with nearly twice the frequency: 428 attempts in 2668 minutes (0.160 FTA/min) for Westbrook, versus 250 attempts in 3000 minutes (0.083 FTA/min) for Rose. I have no idea what it is, because they also have pretty much the same body type; all I know is that I see Rose take a ton of contact and not get the whistle.</p> <p>And in the Nets game, a number of questionable calls were made -- or not made, as the case may be -- against Rose, especially on his back-to-back turnovers in the first overtime. But while his frustration is understandable, it doesn't mean that he should stay on the court when he's clearly overwhelmed by it. He's still young. Pull him out of the game briefly, talk to him, get his mind right, and put him back in there.</p> <p>You know, <i>coach</i> him.</p> <p><b>6. Play like champions</b><br />Just kidding. But they need to at least play like a playoff team, as opposed to one that chokes at home to the Andrew Bogut-less Bucks, loses to New Jersey (twice), and blows a 35-point lead against the Kings.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVGkeL6oBfKmU1S1o9QvkZNm0cnwtHeCJFH7gN65Ns3mq9KAuIQtjtn_GGIeRaA5X8fNVM4gHPasYUMi1r9IIfXVSVIOZUZjLPr_s7ElywNnVTW1D-0HTIKnFnSWsQvM8YKDu_kV0o7HU/s1600/Champions.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVGkeL6oBfKmU1S1o9QvkZNm0cnwtHeCJFH7gN65Ns3mq9KAuIQtjtn_GGIeRaA5X8fNVM4gHPasYUMi1r9IIfXVSVIOZUZjLPr_s7ElywNnVTW1D-0HTIKnFnSWsQvM8YKDu_kV0o7HU/s400/Champions.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 342px;" border="0" /></a><b>7. When a lineup isn't working, change it</b><br />In a perfect world, I wouldn't even have to say this. But in the loss to the Nets, Vinny Del Negro stubbornly kept the lineup of Rose, Hinrich, Deng, Miller, and Taj Gibson out there for basically the entire first overtime -- Noah came in for defense for all of 13 seconds -- and beginning of the second, until Rose fouled out. This was despite the fact that from the final minute of OT until that point, the lineup was outscored 11-0.</p> <p>Even if Del Negro <a href="http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/04/vinny-miscommunication-on-noahs-minutes.html" target="_blank">thought Noah was unavailable</a>, he needed to make a move. Miller, who had completely expended himself in helping the Bulls come back from a 12-point, fourth-quarter deficit, had clearly run out of gas -- he missed badly on a pair of 3s in the first OT, either of which would have sealed the win -- and could have used the rest. Del Negro either should have gone small with Flip Murray or brought in Hakim Warrick. Or he could have pulled Gibson (3-of-10 shooting, plus-minus of -16) for either of them.</p> <p>The point is, he shouldn't have just done nothing when the game was starting to get away from them. And he can't afford any similar inaction the rest of the way.</p> <p><b>8. Seriously, don't play Jannero Pargo</b><br />I can't emphasize this enough.</p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-21881160057547594912010-04-09T03:41:00.002-05:002010-04-09T09:02:42.679-05:00A win's a winAnd boy did the Bulls need a win. <p>Playing at the United Center on Tuesday night against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that decided to give it a go without an ostensibly healthy LeBron James, the Bulls overcame some late-game free throw dry-heaving to eke out a 109-108 victory and pull even with Toronto in the race for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot.</p> <p>With Chris Bosh likely <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5068679" target="_blank">done for the season</a>, it appears that even without the tiebreaker Chicago has the edge over the Raps. Of course, the Bulls (38-40) absolutely have to beat the <a href="http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/2009/03/01/20090301sunsoneal-CR.html" target="_blank">RuPaul-of-big-men</a>-free Raptors in Toronto on Sunday. However, with the way the Bulls just played in consecutive games against teams missing their respective best players -- Milwaukee minus the injured Andrew Bogut, Cleveland without a resting LeBron -- I wouldn't even consider calling it a gimme. Nor would I say that about their next game, Friday in New Jersey (the Raptors will be in Atlanta). The Nets have already beaten the Bulls once, and have been playing respectably of late, going 4-4 in their last eight games.</p> <p>Unlike Tuesday's 79-74 loss to the Bucks, the Bulls played Cleveland (61-18) with a sense of urgency and the appropriate level of intensity. Derrick Rose dished out 10 assists and scored a team-high 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting, while Joakim Noah consistently delivered when Chicago needed a big play, finishing with 17 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks.</p> <p>Just as importantly, Noah spearheaded an inspired defensive effort -- although you wouldn't know it from looking at the box score, the Bulls played a much better game on that end than they did versus Milwaukee, despite allowing nearly 30 more points. The Cavs were just hitting difficult shots; they were almost always long and contested.</p> <p>Neither team led by more than five in the first half, which ended with the Bulls up 60-56. While I would have liked to have seen the Bulls annihilate the shorthanded Cavs (who were also without Shaquille O'Neal, Delonte West, and Daniel Gibson), my biggest complaint was that coach Vinny Del Negro again went five-deep with his bench. And that included yet another appearance by Jannero Pargo, who inexplicably continues to get minutes in his valiant attempt to drive his field goal percentage into the 20s.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3H3v9tgZYbp1A7ei0MAJcBM7KDE8KwPyTWSlVg7EeJdiTwq-VeY0ceTJALzHMJdSuJjw80QikfA8l08JIxjmAZSG5cxujfoxUK7R1aT0A7mSVb22IxJKWCJUvhkwqEwfrkORdMjastno/s1600/PargoPhoto.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3H3v9tgZYbp1A7ei0MAJcBM7KDE8KwPyTWSlVg7EeJdiTwq-VeY0ceTJALzHMJdSuJjw80QikfA8l08JIxjmAZSG5cxujfoxUK7R1aT0A7mSVb22IxJKWCJUvhkwqEwfrkORdMjastno/s400/PargoPhoto.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 378px;" border="0" /></a></p> <p>In the third quarter, the Bulls built and blew a 12-point lead, and Cleveland eventually went ahead ahead 85-84 early in the fourth. The Bulls then reeled off a 12-4 run to grab a 7-point lead with 7:01 to go, but the Cavs responded by scoring 11 unanswered, highlighted by a pair of long 3s by Mo Williams, the second of which put Cleveland up 100-96 with 4:45 remaining and had LeBron turning the hardwood into his own personal dance floor. <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Video-Joakim-Noah-takes-exception-to-LeBron-Jam?urn=nba,206931" target="_blank">Again</a>.</p> <p>But this time, instead of rebuking LeBron from his seat on the bench, Noah let his play do the talking, and took it to the Cavs on the court. On the Bulls' next possession, he went hard to the hole and got an and-one to pull them back to within 100-99. After Jamario Moon and Kirk Hinrich (23 points on 8-of-12 shooting, rock-solid D) traded baskets, Luol Deng converted a three-point play of his own to give the Bulls a 104-102 lead.</p> <p>With Williams briefly going cold -- he sandwiched a pair of off-target 3s around an airballed one by Moon, with Noah controlling the boards to limit the Cavs to one-shot possessions -- the Bulls missed a chance to take a two-possession lead when Hinrich drew a shooting foul just inside the 3-point arc and hit only 1-of-2 free throws.</p> <p>Unfortunately, that would be as good as it would get for the Bulls at the line.</p> <p>Trailing 105-102, Williams briefly got loose in front of the Bulls bench, and nailed a 3 just ahead of the close by Hinrich and Taj Gibson. But on the ensuing possession, Noah found himself alone a foot below the top of the key, and without hesitation buried an 18-footer to regain the advantage. As TNT's Doug Collins said:</p> <blockquote> <p>I'm sure that Cleveland will live with Joakim Noah taking that shot -- under two minutes, game tied -- but you've got to give the young guy credit, he stepped up.</p> </blockquote> <p>Following that, Williams used an Anderson Varejao screen to get the tiniest sliver of space on Hinrich and Gibson, and drilled yet another 3 -- that's four in a span of 3:53, and 35 points for the game -- to give the Cavs a 108-107 lead with 1:31 left to play.</p> <p>Derrick Rose responded by knifing through the Cleveland defense with a strong take, and although his hanging bank shot rimmed out, Noah was there to tip it home for a 109-108 lead.</p> <p>Neither team would score the rest of the way, the Cavs because of some inspired Chicago defense, and the Bulls because they treated the free-throw line like a herpes-riddled groupie.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLWoLFT51S2pr7SBhkP2AzRLfonU-sEPY8wNMBDZrbBRhGk1E5DiPa8LPd5lIG5xLd2PxIiaI3bb0wO1oEpaxEcNtxZFzbip0zi6oVjjM2HuvRViGVCHhDrShzvGNGhsq5qNeZ7um7d4Y/s1600/FreeThrows.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLWoLFT51S2pr7SBhkP2AzRLfonU-sEPY8wNMBDZrbBRhGk1E5DiPa8LPd5lIG5xLd2PxIiaI3bb0wO1oEpaxEcNtxZFzbip0zi6oVjjM2HuvRViGVCHhDrShzvGNGhsq5qNeZ7um7d4Y/s400/FreeThrows.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 290px;" border="0" /></a></p> <p>Even though the Williams 3s were the only baskets the Bulls allowed in the final four minutes in holding Cleveland to 2-for-12 shooting, it was in the final 30 seconds that the Chicago D really put the clamps down.</p> <p>After Rose missed a forced 3 with the shot clock expiring, Williams took an outlet pass and tried to beat the Bulls down the floor. But he essentially had to go 1-on-4, and his layup was blocked out of bounds by Gibson, who battled foul trouble and missed his last eight field goal attempts, but still managed to log some productive minutes (three blocks, two steals).</p> <p>Williams got the ensuing inbounds and missed a 16-footer with Hinrich draped all over him. Deng (22 points, 10 rebounds) grabbed the board and was fouled with 14.4 seconds remaining, and proceeded to miss both free throws.</p> <p>Cleveland then had a few chances to regain the lead, but suddenly looked completely lost without James to turn to in crunch time. Varejao deer-in-the-headlightsed a 17-footer, and Moon had his attempted putback swatted away by Noah. The ball ended up in Anthony Parker's hands, and he found Varejao, who by this point had fecal juices running down his legs, and he chunked a reasonably-open jumper from 15 feet. Rose grabbed the rebound and was fouled with 1.3 seconds left.</p> <p>He then went to the line and missed both free throws. These weren't in-and-out jobs, either; he completely short-armed each of them as if he were <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/040808aat.html" target="_blank">playing Kansas</a>. But on the second miss, Noah made an extremely heady play, back-tapping the rebound so that the clock expired without the Cavs ever getting another possession, letting out a scream as he did so to celebrate what was a huge win for the Bulls.</p> <p>Some might call it a moral defeat; others prefer <i>immoral victory</i>. But it goes in the W column all the same.</p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-73605907028525187872010-04-07T20:35:00.004-05:002010-04-22T13:29:18.038-05:00A number of reasons to be depressedBeaten and broken down. <p>That's how I feel after the Bulls' 79-74 loss the short-handed Milwaukee Bucks at the United Center on Tuesday night.</p> <p>Knowing Toronto had already lost, the Bulls blew a chance to pull even in the race for the final Eastern Conference playoff berth; with the Raptors owning the tiebreaker, the Bulls just can't afford to miss opportunities like this one. And yet they did, meekly succumbing to an inspired group from Milwaukee.</p> <p>The reasons to be bummed out by the outcome are almost innumerable. But not quite, as I'm taking it upon myself to examine some of the critical numbers from yet another painful loss:</p> <p><b>7</b>: Bulls turnovers in an otherwise very good first quarter that ended with them leading 27-14. The carelessness was indicative of a team playing without a sense of urgency; despite everything at stake, the Bulls couldn't match Milwaukee's intensity and focus, and were completely out-worked by the Bucks, whose playoff berth was all but assured coming in and therefore had very little left to play for.</p> <p><b>5</b>: Bulls reserves on the court to start the second quarter. At a time when the team is healthy and in the homestretch of the regular season and most coaches would be shortening their rotation, Vinny Del Negro emptied his bench to start the second quarter. The unit immediately let the Bucks back into the game, giving them a glimmer of hope when the Bulls should have been putting their foot on their throats.</p> <p><b>0</b>: <i>(tie)</i><br />A) Assists by Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich also shot 4-for-16 (1-for-6 on 3s), had two rebounds, one steal, no blocks, and didn't get to the free-throw line in a 44-minute stint highlighted by nine points. Unfortunately, his atrocious performance was nearly matched by Luol Deng. Sure, Deng had a double-double, but he required 17 shots to get 16 points, had just one assist as he consistently tried to go one-on-one, and played listlessly throughout, missing a number of easy buckets and getting toasted by former Bull John Salmons defensively.<br />B) Minutes played by the Bucks best player, Andrew Bogut. I told my friend Art before the game that I'd be more confident if Bogut -- out with a grotesquely-injured elbow -- was playing, because Scott Skiles is such a good coach that he no doubt would use it to get his troops fired up for the game, and would be completely unwilling to acccept the injury as an excuse for poor play. You know, unlike the Bulls did when Joakim Noah was out.</p> <p><b>7,000,000</b>: The approximate number of dollars the Bulls paid to Skiles through last season to NOT be their coach.</p> <p><b>11</b>: Bulls free throw attempts. Despite Bogut's absence in the middle, the Bulls continually settled for outside shots instead of trying to get to the rim.</p> <p><b>36.2</b>: The Bulls field goal percentage -- thanks to all those jumpers -- after a hot first quarter (11-for-16, 68.8%).</p> <p><b>26-0</b>: Points scored by Salmons against those by Hakim Warrick and Joe Alexander, the players he was traded for.</p> <p>I suppose you could argue that it's an unfair comparison, given that Salmons played 44 minutes while Warrick played just four and Alexander wasn't even active. But the minutes alone are indicative of the disparity in the talent exchanged, and the game served as Exhibit A for why you shouldn't make a cap-clearing deadline deal with a team you are jockeying with for a postseason berth.</p> <p>Was there any doubt that Salmons was the Bucks best player? That if he hadn't been on the team, the Bulls would have won the game? Salmons scored a game high 26-points -- twice as many as any other Buck besides Ersan Ilyasova (17) -- and despite being their primary ballhandler in crunch time, didn't commit a turnover in a team-high 44 minutes.</p> <p>As Art wrote in a post-game email, "I'm so glad we got rid of Salmons and can now sign Joe Johnson to a horrible contract this summer. Awesome."</p> <p><b>3</b>: Offensive rebounds the Bulls grabbed after the first quarter. One of the biggest reason the Bucks were able to completely turn the game around and prevent the Bulls from making any sort of sustained run was that they limited Chicago to one-and-done offensive possessions.</p> <p><b>2</b>: Points the Bulls were attempting to get, down by three with 7.9 seconds left when Brad Miller got whistled for traveling. Why in the world weren't they setting up to shoot a game-tying 3 when the team is down 77-74? And why is the ball in the hands of the backup center instead of the team's only star, Derrick Rose, who also just happens to be a point guard? Even renowned homer Stacey King pointed this out:</p> <blockquote> <p>And nothing against Brad right there, but there's a situation you're down 3, with about 15 seconds [actually 13, when the ball was inbounded] to go in the game, and you would think that there would be some kind of pick-and-pop situation. Not to take anything away from Brad handling the ball, but that's the last guy you want to be trying to dribble and trying to create something off the dribble.</p> </blockquote> <p>Keep in mind that this all occurred coming out of a timeout. I can't even fathom what might've been discussed at that during that stoppage in play. But I suppose it must've went something like this:</p> <blockquote> <p><b>Del Negro</b>: Alright everybody, this is exciting. I'm beginning to think that we could actually win this game. I mean, I doubt it, but maybe. Okay Derrick ...</p> <p><b>Rose</b>: I'll take the inbounds, go hard to the hole while Miller and Deng set a series of screens on the perimeter, and then find the open man for the game-tying 3?</p> <p><b>Del Negro</b>: Hold on there, professor. You're going to be a decoy. We're going to inbound it to Luol. Lu, you're going to act like you're the last person who wants to be near the ball at this point, and you'll find Brad beyond the arc. Now, Brad ...</p> <p><b>Miller</b>: Coach, I can make it.</p> <p><b>Del Negro</b>: Take it easy, Jimmy Chitwood. You're not going to shoot it, or even think about trying to tie the game. We have to play to our strengths here, so you've got to immediately put the ball on the floor and CREATE. <i>Lose</i> on three, <i>lose</i> on three, <i>LOSE!</i></p> </blockquote> <p>I'm always amazed when I look at the stats and Miller isn't averaging 41 turnovers per 48 minutes, because it seems to me that he is constantly losing possession while trying to create something, either by throwing a terrible bounce pass, getting the ball stripped, or just flat-out losing his dribble. Remarkably, Miller averages fewer turnovers per 48 than Rose and, more surprisingly, Noah.</p> <p><b>13.9</b>: The percent chance the Bulls now have of getting into the playoffs, according to ESPN.com's John Hollinger, which is pretty much right between CoolStandings.com (15.1%) and Basketball-Reference.com (12.8).</p> <p><b>4</b>: The typical number of hours I squander finding/editing photos and creating captions. Which is why, in my depressed state, you're not getting any here. Sorry.</p>Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-49754422799273665012010-04-06T11:06:00.007-05:002010-04-22T13:29:48.344-05:00The (hopefully enduring) legacy of Butler<a name="fb_share" type="button_count" href="http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php">Share</a><script src="http://static.ak.fbcdn.net/connect.php/js/FB.Share" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">*** NOTE: I don't care how late this is. I had some lingering thoughts on the NCAA title game and I wanted to express them. If you don't care anymore, I promise I won't be offended. ***</span><br /><br />Much to my surprise, the 2010 NCAA Tournament kept up the thrilling pace right until the very end.<br /><br />In a fitting climax to a fantastic two-and-a-half weeks, Duke held on for a 61-59 win and the championship when a buzzer-beating half-court shot by Butler's Gordon Hayward caromed off the backboard and then the front of the rim before tragically falling harmlessly to the floor.<br /><br />This followed Hayward narrowly missing a Keith Smart-esque fade-to-the-baseline rainbow on the previous possession with five seconds to go and the Bulldogs trailing 60-59. With the camera right behind him, the shot looked dead-on, and visions of it going down as one of the greatest in college basketball history flashed through my mind, but it ended up being just a touch too strong.<br /><br />Butler immediately fouled Brian Zoubek on the rebound, and with 3.6 seconds left and the Bulldogs out of timeouts, he made the first before intentionally missing the second, a strategy I disagreed with. Even though it meant Butler wouldn't be able to set up a play on the inbounds, and the running clock pretty much ensured frenetic disorganization, it also put Duke in position to lose if the Bulldogs hit a miracle 3.<br /><br />Which they damn near did.<br /><br />Immediately after Heyward's prayer rimmed out, I couldn't help but think of a bullshit charge that was called on him midway through the second half that erased two points, when it really should've been an and one. Could have been a totally different outcome had that sequence been called properly. Still, it could not take away from what was an absolutely riveting contest.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjOi-x20c9LUQmm-GOhygvIoRXNMLysDHCmMeiCB2I7wsIEo39HOtSuIgnd15M4qMK4m9lL1dywqXaBI1aouWCQpXC0UAWd2Ckplr71ekMs8fFUhG3pXsUIS_BV8wuVta3xPC3V6SAhio/s1600/HeartAttack.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 342px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjOi-x20c9LUQmm-GOhygvIoRXNMLysDHCmMeiCB2I7wsIEo39HOtSuIgnd15M4qMK4m9lL1dywqXaBI1aouWCQpXC0UAWd2Ckplr71ekMs8fFUhG3pXsUIS_BV8wuVta3xPC3V6SAhio/s400/HeartAttack.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460579875540227506" border="0" /></a>During the course of the game, I became so amped up and nervous as the massive tension continued to mount -- the differential between the two teams was never more than five points in the second half -- that I kept thinking, <span style="font-style: italic;">I cannot even imagine how badly I'd be freaking out if I was a Butler alum.</span> I mean, seriously. You go to some tiny school in Indiana that no one's ever heard of, and then 10 or 15 years later they're playing for the NCAA title? I was completely losing it and I have absolutely no ties to the school; if I did, I'm pretty sure I would've had multiple heart attacks and/or aneurysms.<br /><br />Still, in the end it was hard to be disappointed. It was such a great, exciting game and the finish was so close that I still had a goofy grin on my face long after it ended. I also thought about how Hayward came within a hair's breadth of immortality. I really think that if his half-courter had rattled in, it would have gone down as the greatest play in sports history. Think of all the legendary finishes in sports: Bobby Thomson's <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMa5eZE5ilE" target="_blank">Shot Heard Round the World</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fZCCAqoSwY" target="_blank"> the </a><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8l5N2eKdvL4" target="_blank">Lorenzo Charles dunk</a> to win the '83 tournament, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ix848GU0gNo" target="_blank">Bill Mazeroski's homer</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fZCCAqoSwY" target="_blank">The Play</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzkTAdF6I2A" target="_blank">Kirk Gibson's blast</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ykWbu2Gl0" target="_blank">Doug Flutie-to-Gerard Phelan</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NCwBYubFvM" target="_blank">Jerry West's 60-footer</a> in the '70 NBA Finals, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-LmPFHgE3k" target="_blank">Dwight Clark's catch</a>, or any of <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Weqdp4opMqI" target="_blank">Michael Jordan's buzzer beaters</a>. None of them turned a certain loss into a title; most of them didn't even occur in a championship game (or a Game 7, as the case may be.) Charles' dunk and Maz's homer did, but both of those games were tied. Given the length of the shot and the magnitude of the upset, Hayward's heave would have topped them all.<br /><br />I sincerely hope that he doesn't spend the rest of his life thinking about that. All of the kids from Butler should be exceptionally proud of what they did, and realize that the entire country (of non-Duke alums) was rooting for them. They might not have come away with the title, but I'll remember that team long after the championship is lost among the many in Duke's annals. So congratulations, Butler Bulldogs. That was a hell of a run.Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4595287980619371094.post-46910548601241507492010-04-05T10:56:00.002-05:002010-04-06T01:02:26.356-05:0080 Is Not EnoughAlright, I'm back with the second half of my season preview. Since I inundated you with <a href="http://mrsportsknowitall.blogspot.com/2010/04/getting-off-academic-probation-your.html" target="_blank">four billion words yesterday</a>, let's just dive right in, and I'll try to keep it brief. But keep in mind that I always try to keep it brief, and rarely -- okay, never -- succeed.<br /><br /><table str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 144pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="192"><col style="width: 109pt;" width="145"> <col style="width: 35pt;" width="47"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt; font-weight: bold;" height="17"> <td colspan="2" class="xl25" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 144pt;" width="192" height="17">NL Central</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">St. Louis Cardinals</td> <td class="xl24">89-73</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Cincinnati Reds</td> <td class="xl24">84-78</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Chicago Cubs</td> <td class="xl24">80-82</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Milwaukee Brewers</td> <td class="xl24">79-83</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Pittsburgh Pirates</td> <td class="xl24">73-89</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Houston Astros</td> <td class="xl24">71-91</td> </tr> </tbody></table><br />Unless Chris Carpenter has one of his injury-plagued years, between him, Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, and the emerging Colby Rasmus, it's difficult to envision a scenario in which the Cardinals don't win the division.<br /><br />I like the Reds a lot; their defense is rock-solid -- best in the National League last year, according to FanGraph's Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), and they'll add a full season of Scott Rolen -- and they have lots of good, young pitching for Dusty Baker to destroy.<br /><br />As for the Cubs, the biggest problems are their defense and bullpen. There's not much they can do about the D at this point; they basically have all the same players as last year's 21st-ranked unit, although they should improve up-the-middle when Starlin Castro arrives. And the outfield should see a slight uptick with Marlon Byrd taking over in center for the better-suited-in-right Kosuke Fukudome.<br /><br />But any defense is rendered moot when a pitcher is walking everybody in sight. And that's the problem with the Cubs' bullpen: too many bases on balls.<br /><br />For the bullpen to have any chance of being successful, Carlos Marmol has to regain his form from '07-'08, as his already-high walk rate jumped to an insane 7.91 per 9 innings pitched last year. Luckily, he managed to up his groundball/flyball ratio to 0.74 (from 0.62), and that -- combined with what must've been a huge dose of luck -- helped him quarter his home-run rate, from a far-too-hefty (and equally fluky) 1.03 per 9 IP in 2008 to 0.24.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHQp7QspmQOTiqf9NvrSk-SNhKuXXBjtaV_xQxaXAWc2DcY9YoeS3B6rJUIUNkAyrQiB-Bmt8HsaCCYOTLIO97CD1IHJDBdY4LRgbRwEDiZhFkiiSMvZnHa-dkY_pHGJAVlX2PKKJZEKE/s1600/Control.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 306px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHQp7QspmQOTiqf9NvrSk-SNhKuXXBjtaV_xQxaXAWc2DcY9YoeS3B6rJUIUNkAyrQiB-Bmt8HsaCCYOTLIO97CD1IHJDBdY4LRgbRwEDiZhFkiiSMvZnHa-dkY_pHGJAVlX2PKKJZEKE/s400/Control.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5456874042057671906" border="0" /></a>Still, put it all together and Marmol's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 4.06, much worse than his 3.41 ERA. It's worth noting, however, that Marmol has out-performed his FIP significantly in each of the last three years. Mariano Rivera consistently does likewise, and manages to do so while mixing in the occasional strike every now and then.<br /><br />Marmol is so utterly unhittable that he can get away with a very high walk rate, but not as astronomical as last year's. He needs to get it back under 5 per 9 IP, which isn't asking too much. If he can't do that, the Cubs are in big, <span style="font-style: italic;">big</span> trouble, because they don't have a whole lot behind him.<br /><br />As I mentioned yesterday, their top lefty, John Grabow, has been very hit-lucky the last few seasons, with a completely unsustainable .265 BABiP, and walks a batter every other inning. Their top-right-handed set-up man, Angel Guzman, is out indefinitely, embarking on his annual spring migration to the disabled list. Esmailin Caridad's unproven, and is coming off a 4.17 ERA (and 4.26 FIP) in Triple-A. Justin Berg has a 1.04 strikeout to walk ratio in over 300 innings in Double- and Triple-A. Jeff Samardzija had a 7.53 ERA last year.<br /><br />I do like Sean Marshall, and James Russell looks promising in that he at least has proven to be somewhat stingy with the walks -- 2.6 per 9 over the course of his minor-league career -- but they're both lefties and likely to be used situationally.<br /><br />Pretty much the only redeeming factor about the bullpen is that it's cheap. I don't believe in allocating too many resources for relievers; a team typically is better served using some of its organizational arms instead of signing veteran middle men to 3-year, $16.5-million deals. I just wish the pitchers the Cubs elevated had better track records.<br /><br />The rotation, however, will be better than the 'pen. I expect Carlos Zambrano to win more than nine games, as his peripherals were actually pretty respectable last year -- his FIP (3.77) was his lowest since 2006, and he upped his strikeout rate after it had been in steady decline. A big part of the perception of Zambrano as a disappointment last season -- other than the single-digit wins, which he has little control over -- can be traced to a .308 BABiP that was about 30 points higher than his career number. And that should come back down this year.<br /><br />However, any Zambrano improvement will likely be offset by some regression by Randy Wells. Wells came into the year having spent parts of three seasons in Triple-A, and allowed BABiPs ranging between .325 and .371. But last season against major-league hitters it was just .294. While that's not insanely low by any means, I'd be surprised given his track record if that's his true level. Because of that and his relatively low K-rate, I'm not expecting very big things from him. If he can somehow match last season's performance, I'd be very happy.<br /><br />Ryan Dempster shocked me for the second straight year in '09, actually giving the Cubs some value on their 4-year, $52 million investment, which is starting to look much less bat-shit crazy than I originally thought. The most amazing thing is, Dempster has become almost a completely different pitcher since returning to the rotation. Through the '07 season, he had given up 4.7 BB/9. But over the last two seasons, he's dropped that to 3.1, in the process increasing his K:BB ratio from 1.60 to 2.55. It's a remarkable transformation, and as BABiP last year (.307) was right in line with his career mark, Dempster's success might actually continue.<br /><br />I like Tom Gorzelanny enough, but he has to prove that he can limit his walks, which was the primary reason he fell out of favor in Pittsburgh. And I'm not going to get into it again after yesterday, but I'm not exactly sanguine about strikeout-averse Carlos Silva's chances of being a successful starter, which means the quick return of Ted Lilly will be crucial.<br /><br />As for the offense, I do like the Cubs bench, especially Chad Tracy and Xavier Nady. Tyler Colvin will not be able to sustain his spring training success, but he's young and cheap so no harm done. It's not like Sam Fuld is a transcendent player anyway, and I expect him and his solid glove to be up soon enough.<br /><br />In terms of the starters, Byrd should be pretty much what he's always been: a league-average offensive player whose glove in center is also precisely average -- he has a UZR/150 of 0.0 in 4,266.1 innings.<br /><br />As long as fans can accept Fukudome for what he is -- a middling-average, high-OBP guy with little power and lots of strikeouts -- and the Cubs sit him against lefties, I think he will have a stealthily nice year, and his defense seems to play better in right (UZR of 18.2) than it does in center (-13.5).<br /><br />In left, while he's one of my all-time least-favorite Cubs, there's almost no way that Albatrasso Soriano can be as bad as he was last year. His BABiP was a career-low .279, and if fortune allows that to return to his career norm (.306), he'll have a much better season. But I don't think anyone knows what to make of his faltering D. Luckily the Cubs aren't even halfway through that magnificent contract of his, so we'll all have plenty of time to figure it out.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW50xsTXwy94EtxhUE7N-svG6x1CgGKudZERLB4zXbMzwsLUgf0-NnMw8NwJzO4s8kekyhxABkqqFNhfcTwU9SPeRstQZudWepOyeDJt5r72L1NVS6j25_HxAfguOi-smXd4OkFp6bkdo/s1600/SorianoTime.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 340px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW50xsTXwy94EtxhUE7N-svG6x1CgGKudZERLB4zXbMzwsLUgf0-NnMw8NwJzO4s8kekyhxABkqqFNhfcTwU9SPeRstQZudWepOyeDJt5r72L1NVS6j25_HxAfguOi-smXd4OkFp6bkdo/s400/SorianoTime.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5456874046105341170" border="0" /></a>Moving to the infield, I expect more of the same from Derrek Lee (not quite as good as last year, but not as bad as the two that preceded it), Ryan Theriot (who hopefully will go back to taking the occasional walk instead of trying to blast home runs), and Aramis Ramirez (highly-productive when in the lineup, which is far too infrequently.)<br /><br />Geovany Soto will bounce back from an extremely unlucky (.246 BABiP) 2009, as his walk and strikeout rates were almost identical to his Rookie-of-the-Year season's. Although his line drive rate dropped from 21.0% to 18.1% (almost all of which became ground balls), I expect that after having donated those 25 pounds to Tyler Colvin, he'll rejoin the offensive elite among catchers.<br /><br />Mike Fontenot will also be much improved. (And as the only Cub on my NL-only fantasy team, he'd better be.) His BABiP, an unsustainably-high .353 in 2008, plunged to .276 in '09, and hopefully will settle somewhere in the middle. Fontenot's production fell off notably after he moved to third base -- a position he had very little familiarity with -- in the wake of Ramirez' annual ailment., and while he never used the position switch as an excuse for his struggles, I nonetheless expect him to rebound now that he (hopefully) has a permanent home.<br /><br />And that's about it. Really, the bullpen and defense are the only things keeping me from predicting a win total in the mid-to-upper 80's. If they can get some good luck with both, I could actually see them being right there with the Cardinals.<br /><br />The Brewers don't have enough pitching, I like what the Pirates are putting together but they're still a ways away, and the only positive I expect from Houston are a potential break-out years from Felipe Paulino and maybe J.R. Towles.<br /><br />As for the rest of this stuff:<br /><br /><table str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 234px; height: 594px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 109pt;" width="145"> <col style="width: 35pt;" width="47"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt; font-weight: bold;" height="17"> <td colspan="2" class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 144pt;" width="192" height="17">NL East</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Philadelphia Phillies</td> <td class="xl24">91-71</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Atlanta Braves*</td> <td class="xl24">86-76</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Florida Marlins</td> <td class="xl24">83-79</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">New York Mets</td> <td class="xl24">78-84</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Washington Nationals</td> <td class="xl24">73-89</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td colspan="2" class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NL West</span></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Arizona Diamondbacks</td> <td class="xl24">86-76</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Colorado Rockies</td> <td class="xl24">83-79</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Los Angeles Dodgers</td> <td class="xl24">82-80</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">San Francisco Giants</td> <td class="xl24">78-84</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">San Diego Padres</td> <td class="xl24">65-97</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td colspan="2" class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AL East</span></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Boston Red Sox</td> <td class="xl24">98-64</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">New York Yankees</td> <td class="xl24">93-69</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Tampa Bay Rays</td> <td class="xl24">90-72</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Baltimore Orioles</td> <td class="xl24">77-85</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Toronto Blue Jays</td> <td class="xl24">72-90</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td colspan="2" class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AL Central</span></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Chicago White Sox</td> <td class="xl24">86-76</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Minnesota Twins</td> <td class="xl24">84-78</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Detroit Tigers</td> <td class="xl24">78-84</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Cleveland Indians</td> <td class="xl24">75-87</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Kansas City Royals</td> <td class="xl24">69-93</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td colspan="2" class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AL West</span></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Seattle Mariners</td> <td class="xl24">87-75</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">California Angels</td> <td class="xl24">85-77</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Texas Rangers</td> <td class="xl24">78-84</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Oakland A's</td> <td class="xl24">77-85</td> </tr> </tbody></table><span style="font-style: italic;"><br />* Wild card</span><br /><br /><table str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 212px; height: 234px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 135pt;" width="180"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt; font-weight: bold;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 135pt;" width="180" height="17">NLDS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">St. Louis over Atlanta</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Philadelphia over Arizona</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">ALDS</span></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Boston over Chicago</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">New York over Seattle</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NLCS</span></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">St. Louis over Philadelphia</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">ALCS</span></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Boston over New York</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">World Series</span></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Boston over St. Louis</td> </tr> </tbody></table><br />And finally, the award winners:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NL Rookie of the Year</span>: Jason Heyward, Braves<br /><br />He'll be playing a key role on a team I have making the playoffs. As good of an offensive prospect as there's been in recent years, with a minor-league track record that compares favorably to just about any current star's. To me, he has to be given the edge over Steven Strasburg, who not only has never faced professional hitters in a real game, but also is starting the year in the minors.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AL Rookie of the Year</span>: Brian Matusz, Orioles<br /><br />Matusz is the best of what appears to be a weak crop of AL rookies.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NL Cy Young</span>: Roy Halladay, Phillies<br /><br />Moving from the toughest division in baseball -- and a third of his games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays -- to the National League should make Halladay's already-elite numbers even better. Although I didn't like the Phillies companion deal involving Cliff Lee -- I thought they should have kept both -- Halladay will be the NL's best.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AL Cy Young</span>: Felix Hernandez, Mariners<br /><br />He was damn close last season, but Zach Greinke had a historically great year and got a ton of (well-deserved) early attention.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NL MVP</span>: Chase Utley, Cardinals<br /><br />Inevitably, voters are going to get tired of picking Albert Pujols every year -- for proof of this phenomenon, look no further than Michael Jordan's mere five MVP's -- and I think this is the year that happens. After a half-decade of being overlooked by voters in favor of his grossly-inferior teammate Ryan Howard, I think Utley finally gets his due this year, in a close race with Pujols and Hanley Ramirez.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AL MVP</span>: Joe Mauer, Twins<br /><br />Now that voters realize that a catcher with a .340 batting average and 425 OBP is more valuable than his first-base-playing teammate with the gaudy RBI total, I expect Mauer to run away with the award once again.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">One final thought</span>: I've read the proposal for <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5013511" target="_blank">floating realignment</a>, which seems completely ridiculous. But something needs to be done, because the set-up as it stands now is totally unfair to the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays. It's one thing to not have a shot at a division title because of having one power team in your division, but they've got to deal with two. Because of that, they are the only teams that come into every season with virtually no chance of making the playoffs.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQIqd0lcCXab-o8mVNHwHyk0ZD_v3Y4KLAMmoM48Ur5BohiDZLC4ZduFuhfd-HE0cRjcailrX11oT839DME_7dbem2sWq0kVHrhb1QxVHUmQfSndVEMVYCLeKmQp4M3kh-pJWt8N-keAQ/s1600/Depressing.jpg" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 352px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQIqd0lcCXab-o8mVNHwHyk0ZD_v3Y4KLAMmoM48Ur5BohiDZLC4ZduFuhfd-HE0cRjcailrX11oT839DME_7dbem2sWq0kVHrhb1QxVHUmQfSndVEMVYCLeKmQp4M3kh-pJWt8N-keAQ/s400/Depressing.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5456881753995607266" border="0" /></a>For the third straight year, I think that the AL East will have the three best teams in baseball. But only two of them will be among the eight playoff qualifiers, and it's really unfair to the Rays especially. Not only is their path to the wild card blocked for all intents and purposes, but they have to play the Red Sox and Yankees 36 times to get there, whereas a team like the Twins or White Sox only has to play those two 12 times. Yes, the unbalanced schedule is bullshit too.<br /><br />Also, as poor as the NL Central is, it's unfair for an organization like Pittsburgh to have to compete with five other teams for the division title, while the fellow small-market A's only have to go against three others in the AL West, but that's small potatoes compared to the injustice that is the AL East.<br /><br />Since moving an NL team to the AL and having ongoing inter-league series throughout the year would be too radical for Bud Selig, and it appears that the unbalanced schedule and the seemingly weekly nationally-televised Red Sox-Yankees games it produces aren't going anywhere, here's my solution for the poor, downtrodden also-rans in the AL East:<br /><blockquote>If the third-place team in any division finishes second in the wild-card race and has a better winning percentage than the division titlist with the worst record, they would meet that division winner in a one-game playoff to determine who actually gets to go to the Division Series. </blockquote>Over the last 10 seasons, this would have come into play only twice: in the AL in '08 -- when the Yankees finished behind the Red Sox and Rays and would've faced the White Sox under the terms of my proposal -- and the NL in '07, with would've seen the Padres taking on the Cubs. But it would serve to give teams in the AL East just a sliver of hope, and isn't that what all fans deserve?Mr. SKIAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16413256194282358185noreply@blogger.com0