April 27, 2009

What if the Bears had a draft and I wasn't disappointed?

As I touched on in my previous post, Sunday was a glorious day to be a Chicago sports fan. Even if you prefer the Sox (who lost) over the Cubs (who didn't), between the Bulls' game and the Bears' draft, there was still plenty to get excited about.

I found this year's draft especially satisfying. I mean, I really, really enjoyed myself. Why? Because the Bears did so few head-scratching, me-off-pissing things. I hadn't heard of all of the players they picked, but between ESPN.com, NFL.com, and the Bears' own website, I was able to get a pretty good sense of the all the draftees, and just about every selection was solid. What follows are my thoughts on each, a quote from somebody else, and my best/worst case Bears-player comparison:

Pick 68, Jarron Gilbert; 6'5¼", 288; DT, San Jose State; Scouts Inc. #60
The YouTube pool jumping, impressive as it is, has been way overplayed. But small school competition or not, he led the nation in tackles for loss. As an interior lineman. He appears to be a superior athlete, obviously, and the main knock against him is a questionable motor. Luckily, he is walking into a perfect situation. That is, he won't be on the field for every snap; as part of a four (Tommie Harris, Marcus Harrison, Anthony Adams) or five (Dusty Dvoracek) man rotation, he'll have to earn every rep, which will mean no plays off. If motivation is a problem -- which we don't even know that it is -- it will be taken care of by circumstances. I would be much more worried if he were on the other side of the ball, where rotation isn't part of the equation. And if he works out, he'll probably be moved outside to end in rushing situations. Like Bryan Robinson, only effective.

Best case: Jim Flanigan
Worst case: Russell Davis
Money quote: "Gilbert led the nation with 22 tackles for a loss. Had he played at USC, he would have been a first day pick." -- Mel Kiper Jr.


Pick 99, Juaquin Iglesias; 6'0⅞", 210; WR, Oklahoma; Scouts Inc. #111
Iglesias just missed getting mentioned twice in my draft preview column: once in my top-20 draft names,* before I decided just being foreign-sounding wasn't enough; and again when I talked about the Bears waiting to take a receiver. With that one, I figured that Iglesias would probably be gone before the Bears picked a second time. But he wasn't, and the Bears pulled the trigger.

* A few to add that I should have considered but somehow missed: Sen'Derrick Marks, Kaluka Maiava, Jasper Brinkley, Cornelius Ingram, Jarius Wynn, Brice McCain, Stryker Sulak, Stoney Woodson, and my favorite, Captain Munnerlyn.

Iglesias was one of the players I was pulling for with this pick, especially with my beloved Ramses Barden surprisingly already off the board. No, Iglesias is not blazingly fast, and, yes, he played in a high-scoring offense. But he was one of the reasons Oklahoma was so high scoring, putting his feet in the end zone 10 times last year. He's very solidly built for a receiver, and supposedly isn't afraid to mix it up. I'm just hoping that, unlike the last three Bears-drafted Oklahoma players -- Tommie Harris, Mark Bradley, and Dusty Dvoracek -- that Iglesias will be able to stay on the field. At least long enough for us to determine whether or not he can play.

Best case
: Marty Booker
Worst case: Dez White
Money quote: "Juaquin Iglesias was a solid pickup with the 99th overall selection. Some teams rated him in the second round." -- John Czarnecki, FoxSports.com


Pick 105, Henry Melton; 6'3", 280; DE, Texas; Scouts Inc. #227
And so ended my excitement about the Bears draft, at least temporarily. This seemed like a real reach to me (and Scouts Inc., apparently) as I had never even heard of Melton, while several other DE's that I am familiar with were still on the board. Players who were invited to the combine, and have names less insurance-adjustery.

But Melton is a somewhat interesting prospect. He scored 10 TDs as a freshman running back, so he is definitely an athlete. As shown at Texas' pro day, when he proved he can run (4.65 40) and jump (34.5" vertical, 10'1" broad). What we don't know about is tackling, making Melton indisputably a project, and a guy I would've felt much more comfortable with as a 6th- or 7th-round pick.

Best case
: Alex Brown
Worst case: Dan Bazuin, Claude Harriott, Michael Haynes, Karon Riley, Pat Riley, John Thierry. You get the idea.
Money quote: "He's an athlete with speed. He's got a great first move in the pass rush and really good explosion." -- NFL.com


Pick 119, D.J. Moore; 5'8⅞", 192; CB, Vanderbilt; Scouts Inc. #38
The Bears found a great value with the 19th pick of the 4th round; in Mel Kiper's first 2009 mock draft, he had Moore going with the 26th pick of the first round. He, Scouts Inc., and SI.com, among others, all agreed that Moore had no business being around so late in the draft.

The reason he was? Speed, or lack of it. Moore ran the 40 in the mid-4.5 range, which is not considered good enough. It's the exact reason that Nathan Vasher fell to the Bears in the 4th round. Ironically, if the productive-when-in-the-lineup Vasher were able to stay healthy, the Bears might not have felt the need to pull the trigger on Moore. Like Vasher, Moore has been an extreme ballhawk in college, with 12 INTs over the last two seasons. He's supposedly a great athlete (39.5" vertical), he's just not all that fast. But in the Bears system, which often has both safeties playing way off the line of scrimmage, elite speed at the corners isn't required.

Best case
: Donnell Woolford (thought I was gonna say Vasher, didncha?)
Worst case: Roosevelt Williams
Money quote: "All the skills to be a starting cornerback at the next level, and he should only get better." -- SI.com


Pick 140, Johnny Knox; 5'11½", 185; WR, Abilene Christian; Scouts Inc. #115
As the Bears came on the clock for this pick, I was thinking, "Please take Johnny Knox. Please take Johnny Knox. Please take Johnny Knox." Not only had I specifically mentioned Knox in my preview, but I was also hoping they wouldn't be putting all their eggs in Iglesias' basket. Mid-round receivers are no sure bet, and I was praying the Bears would be smart enough to grab more than one -- something I really regret not mentioning in my preview. Anyway, with the clock ticking down, I started thinking of the recent drafts in which the Bears took two receivers in the middle rounds -- the Justin Gage/Bobby Wade and D'Wayne Bates/Marty Booker combos immediately came to mind. In looking at the archives however, I discovered it had happened much more than I would have guessed. In the past 10 drafts leading up to this one -- and this includes the two times when they waited until the 7th round to take a second receiver -- the Bears had taken two or more receivers a whopping six times. Still, when Johnny Knox's name flashed on the board as their pick, I very nearly shit my pants. I mean, what are the odds, that late in the draft, that they'd actually take the guy I wanted? They're astronomical.

Knox has blinding (4.34 40) speed, and used it to score 30 TDs over the past two seasons. Granted, he probably didn't go against a single NFL-caliber defensive back in that time, but he was a worthwhile gamble having already taken the more-certain Iglesias. Plus, I love the name Johnny Knox, though it's marred by the existence of Johnny Knoxville. Nevertheless, Johnny Knox just sounds like a guy you can chuck the deep ball to. And hopefully Cutler will. And Knox will catch it.

Best case: Bernard Berrian
Worst case: Airese Currie
Money quote: "This blazer gives the Bears another deep threat in the passing game. Although Knox isn't a polished route-runner, his speed will allow the team to stretch the field with the deep ball." -- NFL.com


Pick 154, Marcus Freeman; 6'0⅝", 239; LB, Ohio State; Scouts Inc. #85
Another very solid pick, though I was hoping they'd grab an offensive lineman here. I know they signed three free agent linemen this offseason, but I think they should have used this pick to inject a little youth into the line. The O-Line represents nearly a quarter of your starters, and to totally ignore it for an entire draft is a mistake.

But although I was hoping for OT Jamon Meredith -- who the Packers took eight picks later -- I'm hopeful that Freeman will be a player. He was getting some first-round buzz coming into his senior season, which he spent hobbled by a bum ankle. While the bad wheel made him less productive than he'd been the year before (when he recorded 109 total tackles,) he still had 9.5 tackles-for-loss and 3.5 sacks. If he can stay healthy -- a big if, as he's already had a serious knee injury in addition to the ankle issues -- I think he could be the strong-side starter very soon.

Best case: Lance Briggs
Worst case: Michael Okwo
Money quote: "If it weren't for an ankle injury in his last year at Ohio State, Freeman would have gone much earlier. Instead, the Bears get a good value here with a fast and athletic outside linebacker." -- SportingNews.com


I'm going to pause right here, sum things up a bit, and then give short-shrift to the final three draftees, among whom one would be lucky to stick. As I see it, the Bears got great value on 5-of-6 picks. According to Scouts Inc., it was 4-of-6. If you remove the one pick I don't like (Melton), looking at the rest collectively the Bears selections are even more impressive. The average pick number of the non-Melton Bears was 116; the average Scouts Inc. ranking was 82. That means those five picks had an average grade that was a full round better than where they were selected. You've got to like that.

And it's not just Scouts Inc. that thought the Bears did well; Mel Kiper gave them the "Latecomer Award" in a post-draft summary, according to ESPN.com:
The Bears didn't make a single pick on Day 1. Then on Day 2, they got DT Jarron Gilbert, who is "one of the steals of the draft," WR Juaquin Iglesias, CB D.J. Moore, OLB Marcus Freeman, WR Johnny Knox and WR Derek Kinder. "They got guys who were really bargains." Kiper was impressed with what they did without a first-day pick.
Fellow ESPN analyst John Clayton said of the Bears:
Their picks were consistent and fit needs. Defensive ends Jarron Gilbert and Henry Melton have run the 40-yard dash in 4.8 seconds and will work with defensive line coach Rod Marinelli on the Bears' pass rush. D.J. Moore had received a higher grade than his fourth-round selection.
Todd McShay was a little less effusive in his praise, taking issue with both Iglesias and Knox, but added: "On the positive side, the Bears hit homers on Gilbert and Moore."

Clifton Brown of the Sporting News wrote of the Bears:
They added talent without having a first-round pick. Defensive tackle Jarron Gilbert could develop into a solid run-stopper, and wide receiver Juaquin Iglesias is a possession receiver for Cutler to try and build chemistry.
And finally, one more quote, this one from Kiper's post-draft chat:
Williamson,WV: What player drafted on the second day do you think has the most potential or brightest future?

Mel Kiper: Jarron Gilbert. Roy Millard. Mike Wallace. Rashad Johnson. Juaquin Iglesias. Mike Thomas. Kyle Moore. DJ Moore.
So in a non-Bears-related question, Kiper named his top eight second-day players, and three of them were Bears' draftees. That's phenomenal. I'm not saying that Kiper's the be-all, end-all, but it's certainly better to have people saying you did well rather than being up in arms over all your mistakes -- like the pundits have been about the Raiders. Which is especially interesting, because Angelo reportedly has said he wouldn't have traded out of the 2nd round had Michael Mitchell been available. The Raiders have drawn a ton of criticism for taking Mitchell -- a player some thought would go undrafted -- in the second round. It just goes to show you how razor-thin the margins are in the NFL draft; the Bears are currently being lauded for their astute selections, but Jerry Angelo was only saved from post-draft laughing-stock status by happenstance.

Okay, the final three selections:

Pick 190, Al Afalava; 5'10⅝", 213; S, Oregon State
A hard-hitting (check out this brutal -- and incorrectly flagged -- shot) in-the-box guy who seems ill-suited to the free safety vacancy the Bears currently have. Might be a beast on special teams though. And I love the fact that his entire name is A's alternating with consonants, and that it's very nearly a palindrome.

Best case
: Kevin Payne
Worst case: Ricky Parker
Money quote: "Afalava is a late-round sleeper because of his pure hitting ability. He will need to make his mark on special teams." -- SportingNews.com


Pick 246, Lance Louis; 6'2⅜", 303; TE, San Diego State
I like the idea behind this pick; converting the guard who converted from tight end back to tight end. If you want a drive-blocker at the position, which they need desperately as a complement to pass-catchers Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark, why not take a lineman with some speed (4.76 40)?

Best case
: Keith Jennings
Worst case: Bob Sapp
Money quote: "His combination of speed and strength impresses despite his lack of experience." -- NFL.com


Pick 251, Derek Kinder; 6'0⅛", 215; WR, Pittsburgh
If you haven't seen Kinder's block on this special teams play, you need to immediately. If he wants to make the team, there's going to have to be more where that came from. He was pretty productive as a pass catcher before a devastating knee injury, earning All-Big East first-team honors. The downside? He had a devastating knee injury.

Best case
: Wendell Davis
Worst case: Jamin Elliot
Money quote: "Kinder possesses NFL size and displayed a lot of skill in the past." -- SI.com


And that, you will be relieved to read, is it. I mentioned 65 paragraphs ago how much I relished this draft, and though much of my joy has been sapped writing this interminable entry, I want to touch on why. Yes, a big part of it was the Bears' uncharacteristically-savvy drafting. But the other aspect was something that I spoke of in the draft history I wrote a few weeks ago. Without any high round picks, there was essentially no way I could be disappointed. The bar for these mid-to-late round picks is set so low that all I can see are pleasant surprises. I don't have to be upset about a Cedric Benson or a Dan Bazuin because without the picks, there's no opportunity to flub.

So in case you wanted more upside to the Jay Cutler trade, there it is, as the Bears will again be without a 1st-round pick in 2010. And knowing Jerry Angelo, he'll probably trade down out of the 2nd round too. Since he clearly does his best work in the later rounds, it might be the best move. At least for my mental well-being.

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