This is a draft preview of sorts. But since a huge chunk of the Bears' draft went to Denver, I want to add some final (yeah, right) thoughts about the Cutler trade. As a Bears' fan, I totally ignored the Broncos' perspective the first time around. The main point I should've made is that the deal will likely end up being good for both teams; as a generally strong-drafting organization, the Broncos should be able to find some legitimate players with the Bears' picks.
And that's part of the problem with analyzing the trade. Obviously, Cutler's performance, and whether he is able to lead the Bears to a championship, will play a huge part in how the trade is ultimately assessed in Chicago. However, another aspect of the analysis will misguidedly be based on the quality of the players the Broncos acquire with Bears' picks. Along with next year's 1st rounder, the Broncos get #18 and #84 overall this year; if they get guys like DE Will Smith (#18, 2004; 36.5 career sacks) and DB Ellis Hobbs (#84, 2005; 4-year starter, 27.7 yards per kick return with three TDs), then everyone will talk about how costly the trade was for the Bears. But if it's DE Erasmus James (#18, 2005; 5 career sacks) and DB Ben Kelly (#84, 2000; 13 career games, zero starts, zero interceptions) the consensus will be that the Bears made a great deal. Only that line of reasoning is inherently flawed.
First of all, just because the Broncos may end up drafting great players with the picks doesn't mean the Bears would have. In fact, if you follow them closely or read my primer on the their drafting, you know it's pretty unlikely the Bears would've found any impact players with those selections. And from the Bears' perspective, the value of the picks they gave up is fixed; it doesn't change based on what the Broncos do with them.
In 2000, the Packers gave up a 6th rounder (#185, DE Tim Watson) and DB Fred Vinson -- who never played another game in the NFL -- for Ahman Green and a 5th rounder (#151, WR Joey Jamison). Green made four consecutive Pro Bowls, had six 1,000 yard seasons, and scored 69 touchdowns for Green Bay. One of the great steals in NFL history.
Not so fast. A certain quarterback, one Tom Brady, didn't get drafted that year until pick #199, meaning he was still on the board when the Packers' formerly-held pick came up. Oh my God, what a horrible trade for Green Bay! Sure, they got a star running back, but they could've selected Tom Brady and won three Super Bowls!
Of course that's ridiculous. Because that's not -- or at least shouldn't be -- the way it works. When you are trading picks, you have already assigned value to them, and it's what they were worth that day that counts. The value isn't variable based on the players ultimately selected. From here on out from the Bears' end, all that matters is what Cutler does. The production of the players the Broncos select is relevant to the trade, but only on the Denver side. And so while it's up to Pat Bowlen's guys to make the deal look good for the Broncos, only Jay Cutler can make the Bears look bad.
Alright, on to the draft. You should know that my opinions on these guys are based almost entirely on what I have read; I have seen very few of these players in action, even on TV. I say that not to hedge, but so you can have some insight on my mode of assessment. I go mostly by scout/media consensus, college stats, and -- most prominently -- my general impressions of the player's name. Take J.P. Losman, for instance. When he came out, I knew nothing about him other than his name having bust all over it. First of all, J.P. is some robber baron industrialist aristocrat, not a leader of men in the most workmanlike team sport. Plus, the guy's name is "Loss Man" for crying out loud; let's just say that I didn't think that augured well for his future.
Here are Kiper's Top-25 picks from his latest mock draft, with my comments:
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Oh get off it Matthew. A quarterback should be Matt. If the Falcons QB went by Matthew Ryan, he wouldn't've done squat last year. And this is exactly the sort of thing that derailed Joey Harrington's career. So I'm not exactly sanguine about Matthew's prospects.
Plus, I don't think you should take a quarterback first overall when he's not the consensus #1 player in that draft. That's the difference between Tim Couch, David Carr, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, et al and, say, Peyton Manning. For the Lions to reach for a quarterback when they have so many needs is a huge mistake. Select a player with a little more positional certainty, take a flyer on a QB later in the draft, and live with Culpepper or someone else for at least another year.
2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If Smith is lucky he'll turn out like another former-tight end-turned-left tackle named Jason, Peters, who just signed a huge deal with the Eagles. Peters played tight end throughout his college career at Arkansas, and I was in awe of him after seeing him as one of now-disgraced-receiver-but-then-QB Matt Jones' targets in an epic 7-OT win over Kentucky on ESPN in 2003. He was so gigantic. When I heard he was moving to tackle for the NFL and that he blistered the 40 -- relatively speaking, of course -- at the combine, I was praying the Bears would get him. Of course, the Bears passed on him several times in the late rounds and he went undrafted. With Smith projected to go this high, maybe NFL scouting departments have learned their lesson.
Smith has actually played tackle for the last two seasons, so he will be coming in much more experienced than Peters. But I doubt he's as good of an athlete, and I worry he's a little too finesse to succeed in the mean ol' NFL. His anonymous name would be more of a problem for me if he didn't play such an anonymous position.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
In recent years, LSU defensive linemen seem to have gotten a ton of hype, but not many of them have actually played well in the NFL. While it's still too early to tell about Glenn Dorsey -- who I liked last year -- Claude Wroten, Marcus Spears, Marquise Hill, and Chad Lavalais all failed to live up to their advance billing. I worry about Jackson's lack of sacks (just 8 over the last two seasons) and his supposed lack of quickness, but I like that both his names end with -son. In this case, I don't think that's enough.
4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
For a variety of reasons, none of the USC quarterbacks or recent vintage -- not even Carson Palmer -- have lived up to the hype. Sanchez looks to have a quick release, but his arm strength is supposedly not all that good. That would worry me if I were the 'Hawks. I do love the idea of any NFL player, and especially a QB, walking around with 'Sanchez' on the back of his jersey, as pro-football-reference.com says there's only been three so far in league history. There are eight Sanchezes currently in major league baseball.
5. Cleveland Browns: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
I knew nothing about him before writing this sentence. Holy shit though, he's a fucking tackling machine. He also never missed a game in his college career, and started all but one of them. Scouts Inc. has him as the #1 overall player in the draft, and looking at the numbers, I think I agree with them.
Incidentally, Scouts Inc. has Lord Matthew Stafford at #7.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
With all that has been said about Smith -- things like this -- he has to be the biggest wild card in the draft. He was a dominant college player, winning the Outland Trophy, and if his antics drop him far enough, I think it'll be all the motivation he needs to become an All-Pro. But if he gets picked here or even higher, I worry that he will be too complacent, and end up being another Mike Williams. The colossal bust offensive lineman Mike Williams, not the titanic failure wide receiver Mike Williams.
7. Oakland Raiders: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
The last first-round tackle named Eugene from the state of Virginia (Chung) didn't pan out, so I'm praying this guy doesn't either. At least I hope Chung was the last one.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
I would have thought that Crabtree was a surefire stud, and the potential #1 on my non-existent big board, but I don't trust any receiver who doesn't have a 40-time. And his "injury" concerns me; since the diagnosis supposedly came from NFL doctors, I can't say it's a subterfuge so he wouldn't have to run, but it did give him a convenient excuse, and it's definitely possible that he's stringing it out. Plus, I don't want a receiver with a bad foot anyway.
The name is gold, though, and the times I saw Crabtree play he looked totally unstoppable. But I thought the same thing about Mike Williams. The colossal bust wide receiver Mike Williams, not the titanic failure offensive lineman Mike Williams.
9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Who? That's what I just said. But you gotta love an interior lineman who recorded 16 tackles-for-loss and eight sacks last season as a senior. Which came a year late because he was academically redshirted in 2007.
Busari Raji Jr. is his full name.
10. San Francisco 49ers: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Love this guy's production and top-end speed. Decent size too, and a great name. Some durability questions (knee problems) that are a little scary, but I'd roll the dice.
11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
He looks like a monster, and had a great senior year. He's had some injury problems, though. And what seems to be an awkward-to-pronounce last name.
12. Denver Broncos: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
Don't like the lack of production or the character issues. Add in the fact that he'll be 24 for his rookie season, and I'd stay away.
13. Washington Redskins: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
That Cushing might be drafted ahead of Rey Maualuga blows my mind. Injury-prone and less productive. I guess some team's prefer his youth -- he is four days younger than Maualuga.
14. New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
What I like most about this guy is the fact that he'll play next season at age 21. Lots of room for growth, and he's already pretty damn good: three-time All-Big Ten selection and a first-team All-American. Has good size for a corner, but lacks great speed. Sounds like an affluent man's Charles Tillman.
15. Houston Texans: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
Another guy I like for his youth, and 2o he led the Big Ten with 12 sacks. He'd be a real steal here -- he's #6 on Scouts Inc.'s big board -- and if the Texans get this guy to pair opposite Mario Williams, look out. Aaron and Florida Marlins' rookie Cameron are my litmus test for the last name Maybin. We'll see how they both work out.
16. San Diego Chargers: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi
Seems like a reach. Plus his name sounds like it's from an Abbott and Costello routine:
Lou: So who did you draft in the first round?17. New York Jets: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Bud: Oher.
Lou: Oh her who? You drafted a dame? But women can't play.
Bud: No, Oher.
Lou: You drafted her because you owed her?
Bud: Oher.
Lou: What did you owe her?
Bud: No, you don't understand. Oher, Michael.
Lou: Whose Michael?
Bud: Oher.
Lou: What, the dame again?
Bud: No.
Lou: So did you owe her or not?
Bud: Yes.
Lou: Ah ha! I got it! You owed her, so you drafted her son? Whose son?
Bud: Ohers'.
Lou: I know hers, but who is he?
Bud: (shoots Lou in the face)
-- CURTAIN --
Love the name. Percy Harvin. It kind of reminds me of Devin Hester, a player he resembles because no one really seems to know what position he'll play, and I'd bet that Harvin will have similar -- though lesser -- game-breaking skills.
18. Denver Broncos (from CHI): Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State
Like every Ohio State running back in my lifetime minus Eddie George, Wells will be a bust. Too slow. Although I did say the same thing about Eddie George himself. And Wells apparently used OSU's Pro Day to significantly improve on his combine 40 time of 4.59 seconds. But even with that nickname, I'm still not buying.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
No idea what to make of this guy, but this seems to be a reach in hopes he'll be in the Roethlisberger/Flacco mold. I say meh. And his accountant/frat boy name ain't helping.
20. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
Dropped because of a poor combine performance, the same infallible logic that made Chris Spielman a 2nd-round pick. Yeah, let's not pick a guy because he tweaked a hammy running the 40. Genius.
Maualuga is a much better value for the Lions here than Stafford will be at #1.
And not just because he has a far-superior sounding name to USC teammate Cushing, although that is part of it. One sounds like something soft, while the other screams Bad Ass Samoan and spells Ray with an e, dammit!
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
They say he's too slow for a guy that's not very big, but I wouldn't bet against that name. It's just cooler than shit.
He was extremely productive in college, and impressed me with his athletic ability when I saw him. I would definitely take him over Wells. The reports on him sound remarkably similar to what they said about Emmitt Smith, and he turned out alright. Of course, Moreno won't have 42 All-Pros on his offensive line.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
For such a big target (nearly 6-3) with so many catches (87 last year), his 8 TDs weren't nearly enough for my taste. He's not the fastest guy, so if he's not going to be effective in the red zone, he's useless. Pass.
23. New England Patriots: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut
Hey Kiper, this isn't the NBA. There's no way a guy from that school gets drafted in the first round. The 2,000 yard season is nice, but I can't believe a guy named Donald Brown is going to be the next great running back.
24. Atlanta Falcons: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Like everything about this guy. Size, speed, name, state, everything. I only wish I'd actually seen him play. I'll still rate him a strong buy.
25. Miami Dolphins: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Finally. I've been waiting to get to this guy, because he was the player most-linked to the Bears when they were still picking 18, and I am convinced he'll be a bust. With all his tools and elite top-end speed, he somehow only had 13 TD catches (on 136 receptions) in three years. He is completely a creation of the combine/Pro Day process, and the wide receiver version of his former Terrapins' teammate Vernon Davis. Like Davis, he's all measurables and no production. Again, I've never even seen him on TV, but I will be shocked -- shocked -- if he ever does anything substantial.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
A huge target and supposedly a very good blocker, but he's 24 and had zero TDs last year. 0. Incidentally, that's the number I'd assign to his chances of making an impact.
27. Indianapolis Colts: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi
The oddest, most feminine name I've heard in a while. Plus, I typed in Perry Jeria when I tried to google him, so now he's got two strikes against him. He allegedly appears very out-of-shape, and will be 25 by the time the season starts. Strike 3. And 4, actually.
28. Buffalo Bills (from PHI, which received from CAR): Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma
Now that's a name for an offensive lineman. Loadholt. Love it. Supposedly he's so massive that he has poor agility and no balance, but I don't care. His name's fucking Phil Loadholt. It's at least as good as my previous-favorite offensive lineman name, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and maybe even better. They should just put his bust in Canton right now, it's that much of a done deal.
29. New York Giants: Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
What's hilarious to me is that, yes, he's the son of 19-year (!) veteran Clay Matthews, but he's actually Clay Matthews III. I defy you to come up with a name more ill-suited to Roman numerals. It simply doesn't exist. Anyway, if he has even half the career his dad had, he will be a great pick here.
30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
Wait, another guy from UConn? I'm positive this is some bizarre Sidd Finch-level hoax. This guy even has a basketball-sounding name. To hell with you all.
31. Arizona Cardinals: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Sorry, I'm not even going to look at your numbers because of the feminine, French-inspired 'e' at the end of your first name. Bust.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Max Unger, C, Oregon
That Unger might be drafted before Cal C Alex Mack is a total travesty. Essentially everyone considered Mack the premier center in the Pac-10 for the last several years, and Scouts Inc. has Mack as #1 and Unger 3 for the position. I have no idea if Unger will end up being good, but I know that Mack is a stud.
So that's Kiper's first round. Before moving onto some Bears stuff, here are my Top-20 otherwise-unmentioned-in-this-post prospect names:
Asher Allen, CB, GeorgiaAs for the Bears, with everyone clamoring for them to take a receiver like Massaquoi at 49 -- their only pick among the first 98 selections -- I'm pretty convinced they will not. That's just Jerry Angelo's style, to flip a huge bird at everyone because he knows better. And while his blatant arrogance has worked once -- in '06, when everyone said they needed to fix the offense, and he used their first five picks on defense, including Danieal Manning and Devin Hester -- the consensus is usually correct, and flouting it merely antagonizes the fanbase.
Augustus Parrish, OT, Kent State
Bear Pascoe, TE, Fresno State
Darcel McBath, S, Texas Tech
Darius Passmore, WR, Marshall
Demonte' Bolden, DT, Tennessee
Ellis Lankster, CB, West Virginia
Emanuel Cook, S, South Carolina
Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
Glover Quin, S, New Mexico
Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
Jeremiah Johnson, RB, Oregon
Lardarius Webb, CB, Nicholls State
Louie Sakoda, K, Utah
(tie) Marlon Favorite, DT, LSU; Marlon Lucky, RB, Nebraska
Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Georgia
Quan Cosby, WR, Texas
Tiquan Underwood, WR, Rutgers
Worrell Williams, LB, Cal
NOTE: Many of these are positionally dependent, such as Darius Passmore, which has to be the most apropos wide receiver name ever. Or Louie Sakoda, which would be terrible for anyone but a kicker.
So my guess is Angelo will ignore the position until later, using the tired "best player available" justification. There is an upside, however. If he waits until later to take a receiver, they might get the blazingly fast Johnny Knox from Abilene Christian (coincidentally Manning's school). Or he just might luck into my favorite name in the entire draft: Ramses Barden. Fucking Ramses Barden. A 6-foot-6 inch, 229-pound wide out from Cal-Poly who caught 78 TDs in his career but apparently is not nearly fast enough. But c'mon! Ramses Barden.
Now that's a name.
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