July 5, 2009

A tale of two Foxes

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

While wondering what the Cubs will do with Jake Fox with Aramis Ramirez's return imminent, my thoughts drifted to another Fox-Cub about whom I have been meaning to blog: Chad.

You probably already know the story: reliever with an electric arm can't seem to keep it healthy, blows out every ligament/tendon/joint during the course of his career, but refuses to call it quits, endures excruciating rehab regimens just to toss the ol' horsehide in the bigs again, re-takes the mound with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 9th inning of the seventh game of the World Series with his team leading 1-0, and strikes out the side for the save as every orphan in the world chants his name.

That's Chad Fox's story. Minus the last two clauses.

Fox has consistently annihilated his elbow, and just as consistently, come back. After a patented Dusty Baker into-the-ground-running -- our man Dusty used poor Chad in 11 of the first 19 games in 2005, despite the fact that Fox had missed the final 142 games of the previous season after fellow old-schooler Jack McKeon trotted him out there in 12 of that year's first 20 games -- Fox missed the next two seasons before making a brief, between-injury cameo (after his second Tommy John surgery but before another bout of ulnar neuritis) last season for three games in May.

So Fox returned (again) this season, (sadly) got blasted in his first appearance and was (tragically) getting pounded in his second outing before (surprise!) suffering yet another elbow injury. He has not pitched since, leaving the Cubs' individual pitching stats looking like this (courtesy of ESPN.com):


It is overwhelmingly likely that Fox's season is over, and those numbers got me wondering if a pitcher had ever finished a season with a triple-digit ERA before. So, per usual, I went to baseball-reference.com*

* Baseball-reference.com is a great site, and I use them all the time while crediting them all-too-infrequently. I highly, highly recommend it, both as a stat source and time-waster.

According to B-R, there have been 16 seasons** when a pitcher finished with an ERA of 100 or above, and all, like Fox, totaled just one third of an inning. Both Jeff Ridgway and Joe Cleary tied for the worst mark, at 189.00. However, to me Ridgway's was clearly the worst, as it came over three games to Cleary's one. Incidentally, Ridgway's 189.00 came in 2007, and this is somehow the first I'd heard of it, not to mention that he also rebounded to post a 3.72 ERA last season. For Cleary, meanwhile, that third of an inning marked his only big-league appearance, so he retired with the highest ERA in the record books, aside from the infinity guys listed below. Fritz Fisher, Frank Wurm, and Harry Heitman are the only other pitchers to end their career with a triple-digit ERA, all at 108.00.

** Additionally, there have been 23 occurrences of a pitcher finishing the year with an ERA of infinity; that is, they allowed earned runs without retiring a batter. The worst of these was Bob Kammeyer's 1979 season, when he allowed 8 runs without recording an out. Kammeyer's OPS allowed was a mind-boggling 3.143.

They weren't all bad, though: One of those infinity ERA seasons belongs to Clark Griffith, who pitched in baseball's early years and whose 237 career wins (undeservedly) got him into the Hall of Fame. Additionally, Wilson Alvarez began his career with an infinity ERA in 1989, his only year with the Rangers. Pitching mostly for the White Sox, Alvarez went on to win 102 games while compiling a career ERA under 4, good for an ERA+ of 112. (Griffith's ERA+ was 121, incidentally; a mark of 130 or higher is generally considered Hall-of-Fame caliber.)

Besides Kammeyer, only three others allowed enough runs -- 4 or more -- to have posted an ERA over 100 had they recorded a single out in that season. One of these men was Doc Hamann, who allowed 6 runs in his one appearance in 1922, which would also be the only game of his career. That makes him one of 11 men to retire with a career ERA of infinity, and he allowed by far the most runs; of the remaining 10, four allowed three runs, two allowed two, and the rest allowed one.

Fox's 135.00 ERA ties him for fifth-worst, with John Mabry -- an outfielder/first baseman by trade -- Clise Dudley, Pembroke Finlayso, and one-time Cub Mike Capel, who accomplished (?) the feat with the Brewers in 1990. But aside from Ridgway, each of the triple-digit ERA seasons ahead of Fox came in a lone appearance, while Fox's (and Capel's, for that matter) came in two. So I'd call Fox's feat the second-most ignominious ERA of all time.

I'm sorry Chad. I really do hope you come back again, and are able to wash that taste out of your mouth. I'll be rooting for you.

Speaking of guys I'm rooting for, let's get back to Jake Fox. Over the last 11 games, Fox's numbers have been awesome:

AB----R----H---2B--3B---HR---RBI---BB---SO---BA---OBP---SLG---OPS
41----8----13---3----0----4-----9-----4-----4--.317--.391--.683--1.074

So while many are looking at Aramis Ramirez to provide the Cubs an instant boost upon his return, I don't see him topping what Fox has done over the last 11 games. He is, however, more likely to sustain such excellence, and in the long run, the Cubs will be far better off having him back.

Not to mention he can actually, you know, play third base.

Fox was great as a stopgap there, and the Cubs really should find a way to get his bat into the lineup. Unfortunately, he's not going to -- nor should he -- supplant Ramirez, or Derrek Lee at first. That would leave one of the corner outfield spots, both of which are manned by two of Jim Hendry's most colossal free-agent blunders, making it unlikely that Alfonso Soriano or Milton Bradley end up on the bench for very long. I'd love to see Lou Piniella bench Soriano for a stretch, but he just got two hits yesterday, so I guess the Cubs will interpret that as a sign he's heating up.

Still, Fox's batting average (.310) is twenty points higher than Soriano's OBP (.290). While Fox's defense would most likely be a disaster, it's not like Soriano's reminding anyone of a young Barry Bonds, either. The Cubs shouldn't keep trotting Soriano out there solely to justify his contract, they should be doing whatever will help the team win games. And right now, they should be trying like the dickens to find a place in the lineup for Fox's bat.

P.S. If you liked all the Chad Fox statistical minutae, I have good news for you: Coming tomorrow, more fun with baseball-reference.com's play index, my source for all of these great, anomalous single-season stats.

1 comment:

  1. MONGERS--

    Given the Cubs' financial commitment to their corner outfielders, I'm sure Lou felt like he couldn't put Fox in either of those spots. And since D. Lee has been the Cubs best hitter since May 1, that left Fox without a position. Fox had played a total of just five games at third in seven minor-league seasons, and since he was awful with the glove at first, there was reason to be skeptical of his ability to play the hot corner with any level of competency whatsoever.

    Still, as I've pointed out, the Cubs had nothing to lose by trying Fox at third, and they should have tried it weeks sooner than they did. Considering how badly their offense was sputtering, it may have cost them a game or two. Given the way the division is shaking out, that might be the difference in claiming a playoff spot.

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