Mid-season player analysis, only slightly past the expiration date

Alright, so I'm a little late to this party. But as a follow up to my review of Jim Hendry's off-season machinations, I'd like to do a player-by-player analysis (mostly through the All-Star break, but sometimes later depending on when I actually got around to writing the player's section) of everyone who has been on the Cubs roster this year.

These evaluations will be based solely on what a player has done, not whether they should have acquired him in the first place, or if he's grossly underperforming his 8-year, $136-million contract. I am also going to incorporate a stat I have never used here, UZR/150. UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating, the /150 part is per 150 games, and it is an advanced fielding metric that how many runs better (or worse) than average a player is at his position, over the course of 150 games. It is probably the most useful defensive statistic out there, and far more telling of a player's ability than fielding percentage and the like.* Don't worry about the actual number; for the most part I will only reference where a player's UZR/150 ranks among major-league players with at least 200 innings at the position this season.

* Fielding percentage is pretty much useless because it only reveals how a player did on balls he actually had the range to get to, which means he might have made far fewer plays than someone else could have. But let's say we have a machine that releases a predetermined but seemingly-random series of 600 ground balls, liners, and pop ups -- basically a system that allows for completely identical conditions. Shortstop A gets to 400 balls and makes 10 errors. Shortstop B gets to 500 but makes 20 errors. That's twice as many errors for B, and a fielding percentage (.960 vs. .975) that's 15 points lower. But Shortstop B has undoubtedly been the more valuable defensive player, as he turned 480 (500-20) balls into outs, versus just 390 (400-10) for A. In other words, B has allowed 20% of would-be hitters to reach safely, compared to 35% for Shortstop A. But if we use only the most basic fielding stats, A appears to be the better shortstop; the more advanced metrics at least attempt to measure a player's actual impact.

Finally, if you're not a huge stat person, keep in mind that anytime you see the "slash stats" that I so often use -- you know, a series of numbers like .214/.313/.286 -- those represent batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage. We cool? Good. You are now fully prepared for my alphabetical list of players.

Jeff Baker
He has just 16 plate appearances as a Cub, and has a .214/.313/.286 line. Given the right circumstances -- which would include never letting him bat against a righty -- Baker can probably be mildly productive. But if he continues to take at-bats away from Mike Fontenot, I'm really not going to like him. Grade: Incomplete

Andres Blanco
Inexplicably thrust into a starting role when instead of inserting Jake Fox at third when Aramis Ramirez went down, the Cubs moved Fontenot there, Blanco has been totally overmatched at the plate, going .222/.276/.272 in 92 PAs, good (?) for an OPS+ of 43. I'm not quite sure what the Cubs were expecting, given his career .256/.317/.319 line in over a thousand Triple-A PAs.

Oh, that's right. They were enamored with his great defense. Well, it's been somewhat less great than advertised, as he ranks 23rd in the majors in UZR/150 at second base, among players with at least 100 innings at the position. Yes, he's slightly above average, but his bat is so far below he needs to be Bill Mazeroski over there to compensate. Grade: D

Milton Bradley
While working on yesterday's post, I was shocked to discover that Bradley has the best on-base percentage (.379) of any Cub with more than 20 PAs. Sure, his .243 batting average and .381 slugging percentage have been disappointing, but he has not been a total disaster by any means.

In fact, now that Alfonso Soriano seems to have been(mercifully) removed from the top of the order, I think the Cubs should bat Bradley leadoff. His seasonal OBP is right in line with his career mark, and look what he's done over his last 39 games before the break:

AB----R----H---2B--3B---HR---RBI---BB---SO---BA---OBP---SLG---OPS
114---15--33----7---1----2----12----27---25--.289--.434--.421---.855

Sure, he's not going to steal many bases, but he's also going to make far fewer outs than anyone else Lou Piniella's likely to try there. C'mon Lou! Don't let your creativity be limited to Sean-Marshall-plays-left-field-for-a-single-batter-before-retaking-the-mound-type moves.

Speaking of outside the box, who woulda thunk that Bradley woulda remained relatively healthy during the first half, avoiding the disabled list altogether? Not me, that's for sure. Which only means he's due for multiple trips in the second half.

Then there's Bradley's defense in right, which was billed as an upgrade over recent Cubs 9's like Sammy Sosa, Jeromy Burnitz, and Jacque Jones. Umm, not so much. In fact, Bradley is the 32nd best right fielder (out of 34 qualifiers) in the major leagues. Which is odd, because Bradley has actually been a good fielder throughout his career, and one would have to assume that being a full-time DH last year would have made him even better.

Of course, one area where Bradley hasn't disappointed is in the crazies, where he's already thrown a ball in the stands when there were only two outs, feuded with Piniella, and claimed there was a vast umpiring conspiracy against him. He is, at the very least, an interesting player to follow. Grade: C-

Mike Fontenot
I covered Fontenot extensively in yesterday's post, but I'll reiterate that while he's slumped badly at the plate after a great first month, I believe it was due to the shift in positions, and that with Aramis Ramirez back, he's poised for a nice comeback second half. Provided Lou is smart enough to continue to give him regular at bats.

I really like the way that Fontenot shifted over to third without a peep, and I never once heard him use the switch as an excuse for his poor performance at the plate. He just seems to be a great guy to have on team. Not surprisingly considering he is a novice at the position, Fontenot was slightly worse than average defensively at third. But as a second baseman, he currently has the third best UZR/150 in the majors, and the highest mark among active National Leaguers. Just one more reason he never should have been moved off the keystone -- not only did it effect his bat, it also made the Cubs markedly worse defensively. Grade: B

Jake Fox
This is another thing I've written plenty about, but Jake Fox has been pretty fucking brilliant. At the plate at least. His .906 OPS (in 90 PAs) is the highest on the team among players with significant at-bats, and he really performed once the Cubs inserted him as the starter at third.

Unfortunately, with Ramirez's return, Fox's shoddy defense has basically left him without a position. But just how shoddy is his defense? Actually, at third base at least, his defense has been hardly shoddy at all. In fact, his UZR/150 at the position is better than anyone else's on the team, be it Ramirez, Fontenot, or Aaron Miles. Granted, it could be a statistical anomoly, as he's only played a shade over 100 innings there, but right now he is one of the top-20 defensive third baseman (out of 55 with at least 100 innings) in all of baseball.

Given that he was able to play at least a passable third base as a fill-in, it is imperative for the Cubs to give Fox significant time at catcher with Geovany Soto out. After all, Fox has caught in 276 minor league games, and he had only played third five times. I understand his skills behind the plate have been found to be wanting, but they need to get his bat in the lineup and Soto's injury provides the opportunity to do so. Whatever advantages Koyie Hill's glove might carry, Fox's edge with the bat has to outweigh them. C'mon Lou! Don't let your creativity be limited to Sean-Marshall-plays-left-field-for-a-single-batter-before-retaking-the-mound-type moves. Grade: A

Ryan Freel
Was awful in limited opportunities before getting shipped out. Grade: F

Kosuke Fukudome
Stop me if you've heard this before: Fukudome started the season strong, but has slumped badly in June and July. However, his overall numbers still look decent at .251/.367/.421, acceptable for a center fielder.

Fukudome's defense in center, meanwhile, is also basically average, as he's at +1.6 runs/150 games. But considering his defensive numbers in right field are well above average, we have yet another reason to really dislike the Bradley signing.

And then there's this:

AB----R----H---2B--3B---HR---RBI---BB---SO---BA---OBP---SLG---OPS
118---11--21----6---2----2-----7-----15---27--.178--.269--.314--.582

Those are Fukudome's numbers since June 3. And those are not good. At any position. Grade: C-

Sam Fuld
Fuld has looked great in limited appearances, as his .375/.474/.563 line would be far and away the best on the team if it had come in more than 19 PAs. If the entire Cubs outfield plays like it did in the first half, he might get some opportunities to prove he is a legitimate big-league player. Grade: Incomplete

Joey Gathright
See Ryan Freel. Grade: F

Koyie Hill
For a backup catcher, he's hit, um, like a backup catcher. At .217/.301/.315 over 105 PAs this year, he now has career marks (in 364 PAs) of .198/.269/.291. Which I suppose is fine, when you're the backup catcher. He's also passable with the glove, throwing out 30% of basestealers in his career, and his catcher's ERA this season is almost a run better than Soto's, though last year it was a run-and-a-half worse, which is why I don't put a whole lot of stock in that stat. Anyway, with Soto out for at least a month, Hill is going to really hurt the Cubs with his bat if he's forced into an everyday role. Did I mention Lou should play Jake Fox back there? Grade: C

Micah Hoffpauir
Even though there wasn't a whole lot in Hoffpauir's minor-league track record (before 2008, at least) to indicate that he could sustain last year's success, I was nonetheless hoping that he would. He hasn't.

He's followed up his .342/.400/.534 season with a .241/.286/.429 one. While that seems to be a huge dropoff, it's not exactly what it seems. Last year, in 80 PAs, Hoffpauir had two home runs, six walks, and 24 strikeouts. This year, 182 PAs, eight homers, 10 walks, 39 strikeouts. Look at the ratios:

Year--HR%--BB%--K%
2008--2.5----7.5---30.0
2009--4.4----5.5---21.4

Yes, his walks are down, but so are his strikeouts, and his home runs are way up. So why the huge disparity in his overall batting line? Well, last year he had a crazy .489 BAbip. This year it's at an abnormally low .266. Both of these are things that happen when you deal with small sample sizes. The results might be worse, but I'd say he's probably been at least as good of a hitter. Just a rather unlucky one.

Hoffpauir has been a great defensive first baseman, a touch better than Derrek Lee actually. Unfortunately, Lee's bat/Milton Bradley's struggles/injuries has relegated Hoffpauir mostly to right field, where he's the third worst defender in all of baseball. Though he is better than Adam Dunn.

One more thing about Hoffpauir -- and this is an issue with basically all of the Cubs' young guys -- he's old. Hoffpauir's 29. Fox is 27. Fontenot is 29. Theriot is 29. Bobby Scales is 31. With the exception of Geovany Soto (26), all of the Cubs relatively inexperienced bats don't have a whole lot of upside left. That's definitely a problem going forward. Grade: C-

Reed Johnson
Johnson's another guy who's been a bit hit-unlucky, as his .271 BAbip is nearly 50 points off his career mark. That's resulted in a .248/.322/.398 line that's still not terrible for a backup CF.

Johnson looks good in the field, somewhat routinely making highlight plays, but I have my doubts as to whether he actually is good. UZR/150 says he's pretty much dead average, at 1.3, making him slightly better than his platoon partner Fukudome. I suppose they could do worse (see: Gathright, Joey). Grade: C+

Derrek Lee
I've covered Lee extensively before, so I'll just add that he's rebounded nicely from his year-long slump/slow start. Still, his .281/.354/.510 line is good, but not great for a first baseman, and I hope the Cubs don't make the mistake of extending his contract, which runs out after next year. I'll pass on a mid-to-late 30's Derrek Lee, thank you very much. Grade: B

Aaron Miles
The only good thing Miles has done this year is that he's had the decency to be hurt for a majority of it. Grade: F-

Aramis Ramirez
Ramirez is one of my all-time favorite ballplayers. Even before the Cubs acquired him, that was the case. I've always just loved saying his name. It's just a fun, cool-sounding name to say. But Ramirez , who missed two months with a left shoulder injury, is clearly not healthy. I've seen pained expressions on more than one swing, and combined with his .217/.294/.304 line since returning -- granted it's only 51 PAs -- I'm a little worried.

Plus, the injury is part of a growing career trend. Since establishing himself as a big leaguer by playing 158 games in 2001, here are Ramirez's totals since: 142, 159, 145, 123, 157, 132, 149, 99**. That's more than a full season of games, and he's now missed at least 30 games in three of the past five years. Plus, Aramis just turned 31. These past five seasons have been pretty much been his prime. Would there be any reason to believe he will somehow become healthier as he moves deeper into his 30s?

** The 99 games I used for this year represent a best-case scenario, meaning that -- having already missed 63 contests -- he would have to play in every game the rest of the year to reach that total.

Still, when healthy, Ramirez is a legitimate force. His absence (and subsequent struggles) is the biggest reason the Cubs offense has been such a disaster this year.

How much of a disaster? After leading the NL in runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and (obviously) OPS in 2008, here are the Cubs current standings in each category: 12th, 12th, 10th, 11th. They were also second in batting average last year, at 278. This season their .249 team average is good for 13th. How does a team batting average drop nearly 30 points in one season? I know they miss Mark DeRosa, but he ain't that good.

But it gets worse. The Cubs dominance at Wrigley Field has completely disappeared. At home, they're 11th in runs (203) and BA (.259), 12th in OBP (.335), and 8th in SLG (.416) and OPS (.751). Last year, they led the league in all five categories, and in OPS (.839) enjoyed a remarkable .035 advantage over the next-best team. Part of it might be the park itself. While Wrigley's home run park factor last season was 1.163, this year it's down to 1.035. Still, that doesn't quite explain 88 points of OPS. You know what would? If you skip the Bobby Scales section, you'll find your answer posthaste. Grade: C-

Bobby Scales
Ahh, young Bobby Scales. A mere eight-and-a-half months older than Aramis Ramirez, who's in his 12th season. Not that it's some sort of character flaw. In truth, Scales has done everything the Cubs have asked of him. He's got a very respectable .241/.333/.466 line, especially good for a utility player (Scales has played every position except catcher in the minors). It's not Scales' fault that he's old, or that Jim Hendry wasted a ton of cash on the less-capable Aaron Miles. In an insane 2,329 Triple-A plate appearances (dating back to 2003) Scales has hit .289/.380/.449. As a middle infielder, it's surprising Scales had never gotten a call from a big league club before this year.

Then again, Scales' UZR/150 at second base of -36.2 ranks him 42nd (of 43) in the National League. The only player worse is Ian Stewart, who's primarily a third baseman. Grade: B

Alfonso Soriano
Worst. Contract. EVER.

Soriano, whose deal was preposterous the moment he signed it, has not merely been an overpaid player this season, as he had been the last two. No, this year he's become an $17 million negative.

The site FanGraphs.com -- which I also used for the UZR data -- assigns value to players, in both batting [using park-adjusted runs above average, based on weighted on-base percentage (wOBA)] and fielding [based on UZR]. They then make adjustments for position -- Soriano's spot, left field, is the second-easiest to fill (behind first base), and thus has a negative correction factor --and what a replacement-level player could do, and ultimately calculate a player's dollar value for the season. Here are Soriano's numbers since 2006, his lone season with the Nationals and the one that led to his Powerball jackpot:

Year-Batting-Fielding-Value [in mil]
'06---32.2----8.1------$20.4
'07---22.1----19.5-----$22.7
'08---16.4----2.7------$13.8
'09---(4.1)---(6.2)-----($0.4)

That's right. Soriano's had negative value with the bat and glove, to the point that he's actually below replacement level. Meaning the Cubs could pull a guy out of Triple-A or off the bench -- say, I don't know, Jake Fox -- and have him outperform Soriano.^ Basically, anyone but Joey Gathright or Ryan Freel would be better than him.

^ Actually, Fox specifically has far outperformed Soriano. In just 98 PAs, Fox has accumulated $3.4 million in value.

Soriano is in severe decline, not all that surprising considering he is 33. The only reason his overall value hasn't gone down for the third straight season is the fluke year with the leather in '07. As a hitter, he's gone from one of the best in '06 to one of the worst, declining significantly in each season. Is he as bad as he's been this year? No, probably not. But he's not that good, either.

But there is good news, Cubs fans. Soriano will be gone just in time for the 2015 season. In the meantime, the Cubs will pay him $18 million per for the next five years after this one. Those will be his age 34-38 seasons. I'm not positive Soriano's deal tops Mike Hampton's on the list of all-time worst contracts, but it sure as shit ain't too far behind. Grade: F

Geovany Soto
As I have documented before, Soto struggled to start the season -- supposedly because he was so guilt-ridden from testing positive for weed -- before really picking it up in June. Of course, just as he was turning it around, Soto got hurt. His year has been a bit of a microcosm for the Cubs season: just when it appears everything might be okay, something else goes wrong. Grade: C-

Ryan Theriot
Other than knowing he's got a great nickname, I'm not sure what to make of The Riot. He entered this season with a career marks of .290/.362/.369. After being successful on 41 of 47 steal attempts (87.2%) over his first season-and-a-half, he was one of the league's least efficient base-stealers last year, going 22-for-35 (62.9%).

I was never the biggest Theriot fan because his minor league numbers pretty much sucked. Despite being old for pretty much every level, he has a career line of .271/.355/.337 in 2,364 minor-league plate appearances. He wasn't a particularly good base-stealer either (115-for-164, 70.1%). The only thing he did reasonably well was control the strike zone (260 walks against 264 strikeouts), but there wasn't much in his history to indicate he'd be a successful big-leaguer, especially considering he was already 27 -- the age at which players typically peak -- by the time he spent his first full season in the majors.

But at 29, Theriot has been a completely different ballplayer. With seven home runs already, he's equaled his career total entering the season; his home run rate is 1.7%, versus 0.5% in his previous seasons. That's helped him to a .418 slugging percentage, nearly 50 points better than his career mark. The power has come at a price, however. While his average (.298) hasn't suffered, his OBP has; after he's down 35 points from his career-best .387 of last year. This is due largely to a disturbing loss of control of the strike zone. After entering the season with fewer strikeouts (128) than walks (140), this year he's fanned nearly twice as often as he's walked (57 to 28). That is not a good sign, especially considering a falling walk rate -- Theriot's at 7.1% this season, after drawing a free pass in 11% of his plate appearances last year -- is as much to blame as his skyrocketing whiffs, which have gone from 8.6% over the last two seasons to 13.9% this year. In truth, I prefer the powerless, just-get-on-base version of Theriot^^ to this one.

^^ Additionally, the only reason Theriot's OBP coming into this season was only .362 is because of a insanely unlucky '07 season in which his BAbip was an absurdly-low .287; over the rest of his career, his BAbip is .339. Those missing 50 points of BAbip cost Theriot 24 hits -- but let's be conservative and add just half that many (12) hits to his stats. His average that year jumps from .266 to .288, and his OBP from .326 to .347; his career OBP then would've stood at .371.

I've never been particularly impressed by Theriot's defense, but it turns out that he's more than solid. His UZR/150 of 5.7 ranks fourth among regular NL shortstops, ahead of renowned glove men like Jimmy Rollins and Troy Tulowitzki. Last year, he was decidedly middle of the pack, with a 0.7, but he was very good in '07 as well. I'm not sure what to make of Theriot offensively, but he's proven to be a much better ballplayer than I thought. Grade: B

And that, thankfully, is all of the position players. I was planning on doing all the pitchers too, but the realities of work -- Work? What's that? -- are getting in the way. So that may never happen. Too bad, too. I'd love to dedicate 5,000 words to the walkinest staff in recent baseball history.