The Quartries: My first quarter awards

As the NFL season reaches the quarter pole, I thought it might be a good time to review the state of the league (and I'll try to do this again after Weeks 9 and 13) via some fake awards I hastily created. So let's just get to the Quartries.

The What in God's Name Was I Thinking Picking These Guys as 9-Game Winners Award:
Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders
I have to admit -- on the season's first Monday night, I was feeling pretty good about myself for picking these guys as super-sleepers. Both the Bills and the Raiders very easily could have beaten the heavily-favored Patriots and Chargers, respectively, and I spent most of each of those games strutting around my bedroom like a horny peacock. However, the two teams' inability to close out what were very winnable games should have been viewed not as validation of my picks, but as a harbinger of the woe to come. Meanwhile, the Browns might be the worst team in football, and the Eric Mangini hiring is being roundly panned.

The Raiders have looked awful, though at least they did manage to beat the Chiefs (who just might be the worst team in the league) in Week 2. The Bills, however, have been the most disappointing to me. After three games, they were actually looking decent. Following the opening loss in New England, they beat the Bucs and then played the Saints very tough through three quarters before falling apart in the 4th in a 27-7 loss. Sure, they were 1-2, but they'd at least shown some signs of being respectable. Then came last week's 38-10 pounding at the hands of the previously-winless Dolphins. Just terrible.

Coincidentally, if I were to now put an over/under on the number of wins these three disasters will combine for, I'd probably go with 9.

The What the Hell's the Matter with Me, Missing These Guys as Sleepers Award:
Denver Broncos, New York Jets
Alright, when picking sleepers, instead of my primary method -- which teams were supposed to have been good last year but weren't -- I should have instead looked at last year's actual results; that is, were there any commonalities between last season's surprises? Arguably the three biggest sleepers -- the Falcons, Dolphins, and Ravens -- all had two things in common. The first was rookie head coaches. The second was new quarterbacks. The Falcons and Ravens both started rookie QBs, and Miami went with the discarded Chad Pennington.

So that should have been what I focused on: teams with a rookie head coach and a rookie or previously-discarded quarterback. As best I can tell, that would have left me with three teams: the Jets (Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez), the Lions (Jim Schwartz and Matthew Stafford), and the Broncos (Josh McDaniels and Kyle Orton). Now, I mentioned in my preview that the AFC West was going to be terrible, and a sleeper would emerge from that division (I also said similar things about the AFC East.) And while I wouldn't have picked the Lions regardless because I thought that the NFC North would be far too tough at the top, I am majorly kicking myself for not calling the Jets and Broncos' success. Dammit.

At this point, I'm much more sold on the Jets than the Broncos. New York has played a much tougher schedule to date, while Denver has feasted on the likes of Cleveland, Oakland, and Dallas, and also got very lucky in a season-opening win over the Bengals, who had a couple of decent skins on their wall (Steelers, Packers) before struggling to beat the Browns last week. The Broncos next four -- versus New England, at San Diego and Baltimore, and hosting Pittsburgh -- should tell us more about them. If they can reach the midpoint 6-2, they'll be a virtual lock for the playoffs.

The Which of Us Is the Biggest Turd in the Sunday Ticket Punch Bowl Award:
Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Making up for my whiffs on the Jets, Broncos, and Bengals (who are a combined 10-2), I had all these teams at five wins or less. Only the Dolphins -- or perhaps the Seahawks, if they can ever actually get healthy -- are a threat to even be respectable. So far, these teams are a combined 3-21, a .125 winning percentage.

The Make Up Your Minds, Are You Going to Make Me Look Like an Idiot or What Award:
Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars
I had each of these teams in the playoffs; all are 2-2. It's too early to say that I was way off on my Packers-as-the-best-team-in-the-NFL prediction, but they certainly are not a good bet to finish my forecast 13-3. Their biggest problem (aside from the division-rival Vikings appearing to be absolutely unstoppable) is that their offensive line is god awful right now. Aaron Rodgers has no time, and with his occasional propensity to hold onto the ball too long, this does not make for a mind-blowingly awesome combination.

I had both the Jags and Texans finishing 10-6. And at this point I could see each of them getting 10 wins, or combining for 10 wins. I really have no idea.

The What Do We Have to Do to Stop Getting So Much Preseason Love Award
Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins
Sure, the Cards made the Super Bowl last year, but A. It had been about the 8th straight year that everyone claimed they would be good, so they had to deliver sooner or later after seven consecutive whiffs; and B. They finished 9-7 last year, with the 28th-ranked defense. I was certain the Cardinals would once again fail to live up to expectations, and it looks like they've reverted to form and will.

I thought the Cowboys and Redskins would be mediocre enough to get their coaches fired, and both are well on their way with their ugly, uneven play. The Cowboys still have people thinking they are good, which I just don't get. At all. This is not a good football team. And the Redskins are even worse, though you wouldn't know it from their cakey schedule. Perhaps Albert Haynesworth isn't as great as we all were led to believe.

The You Sure Albert Haynesworth Isn't as Great as We Were All Led to Believe Award
Tennessee Titans
What in God's name has happened to the Titans? Is it possible that the football gods are really this vehemently against Terrible Towel stomping? Yes, I thought Tennessee would suffer a dropoff, but this has just come as a complete shock. Despite a ground game that's averaging 5.5 yards per carry, the Titans are rushing the ball less often than notorious avoid-the-run-at-all-costs teams like New England and Philadelphia. Thus far, the Titans have thrown 153 passes, while attempting just 99 rushes. Look, I know they've been behind, but that's still not right. Plus, their division looks very tough, so I'm smelling a highly-disappointing 6-win-or-so season from them. Might that mean that it's time to unglue Vince Young from the bench?

The Hey, Shouldn't You Have Found a Heading That Paired Us up with the Titans Somehow Award
Carolina Panthers
Yes. Yes I should have. The Panthers should have one of the most productive ground games in the league, but instead they're letting QB Jake Delhomme chuck it up 36 times a game. Just pound DeAngelo Williams! Jesus, it ain't that hard.

The Why Won't These Guys Just Go Away Already Award:
Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings
In an obvious case of wishful thinking, I wasn't exactly sanguine about the chances of these two teams I've never liked, with QB's I've completely had an assful of. Well, that's not quite true. I actually like Peyton Manning a lot more now than I did say five years ago, when I was absolutely certain he didn't have what it took to ever win a Super Bowl.* Now I have to admit that Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game, and he does it with such robotic efficiency that he barely seems human when he's on the field. He is impressive as hell to watch. I still don't think he's the greatest winner ever, but he's taken himself out of the Dan Marino league.

* It was just perfect that Manning played his one Super Bowl against my Bears. Of course I was going to get my comeuppance. I remain firmly convinced that had he played any other team in Super Bowl 41, he would still be ringless.

As for Minnesota, as much as I hate to admit it, they look very, very good at this point. Ignoring the Favre aspect for a second, they might have the best pair of lines in the league. Their defensive front is impossible to run against, and Jared Allen brings such a relentless pass rush that they rarely have to blitz to pressure the quarterback. Offensively, with Adrian Peterson the Vikes don't really need an elite line, but that's exactly what they have. This team looks scary.

My only hope is that, like last year, Favre has a late-season implosion that destroys the Vikings chances. While that would be sweet, with the team being so strong up front, I fear that only injuries can stop Minnesota's inexorable march to the playoffs.

The Will I Break My Arm Patting Myself on the Back Award:
New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers
Yes. Yes I will.

Look, I didn't nail much in my NFL preview, but I hit it right on the head with both of these guys. Except for perhaps the Vikings, no team has been as impressive as the Saints. The offense is still elite, and the defense is making a ton of plays. They look very, very good.

Speaking of a defense that makes plays, the 49ers D is making me look like a fantasy genius (the rest of my team, however, is not). I drafted the Niners D in the 15th round as my lone defense, and they have been awesome, at least fantasy-wise. Mike Singletary really has this team playing with a totally different mindset than teams of recent 49ers vintage, and on the other side of the ball, he's even turned tight end Vernon Davis into a viable weapon. He has to be the front-runner for Coach of the Year, an award, incidentally, that I predicted he would take home. Ah, yes. So this is what it feels like to bask in the glory. The glory of going 2-for-7 with my sleeper picks.

The When Did the Sophomore Slump Lose All Potency Award:
Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens
Both helmed by second-year coaches and second-year quarterbacks -- one of whom (Matt Ryan) got an inordinate amount of credit for his team's success, while the other (Joe Flacco) had his accomplishments mostly ignored by the mainstream media -- these teams are proving that neither was a one-hit wonder.

I had Atlanta finishing 7-9, and it looks like I'm going to be way off on them. The Falcons again look strong, and at this point I'd be surprised if they didn't win 10 games.

I missed even worse on Baltimore than I did on Atlanta; while I had them finishing with a winning record at 9-7, they are much better than that and appear to be one of the best teams in the league. Led by Joe Flacco and the dastardly Willis McGehee**, the Ravens offense is a powerhouse. And the defense, while down a bit, is still very good. What's odd is that in my preseason predictions, I mentioned that I liked the Ravens, and that their solid play last year was not a fluke, based on their point differential. And yet I still picked against them making the playoffs. Perhaps I was a bit too sleeper obsessed; I did, after all, pick seven of them.

** I drafted McGehee with the second pick of the second round in my fantasy league last year, and he did absolutely nothing. Less than nothing. He was awful. I think he scored like 5.2 points the entire year. So this year in my other league (a keeper), I take fellow Ravens running back Ray Rice, secure in the knowledge that McGehee is a thoroughly useless piece of shit. And what happens? Through four games, McGehee leads the league in TDs with 7, the same number he had all of last year. Most of them vultured at the goal line after Rice has done the dirty work to get down there. You sonuvab... Hey, Willis McGehee, remember all of that goodwill you had built up after you tragically shredded your knee in your final college game, a totally-got-boned-by-the-refs loss to Ohio State in the BCS title game? It's gone. All gone.

The Will These Guys Ever Be Crappy Again Award
New England Patriots, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles
I suppose I shouldn't complain, as I had all three making the playoffs; barring injury, all three should make it with ease. While the Giants really haven't played anyone of significance, they also haven't missed a beat despite playing with an entirely revamped receiving corps.

The Eagles look to be almost unstoppable on offense, as the annual injuries to both Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook haven't slowed them down one iota.

While Tom Brady doesn't exactly look like Tom Brady just yet, the Patriots are still 3-1. So I'm not sure that they need transcendent play from their QB to make it back to the playoffs. Although at 11-5 last year, they never should have missed them in the first place.

The Is It Obvious We Just Don't Give a Shit This Year Award
Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers
Both of these teams just look a little off. On paper, both should still be among the elite. But whether it's a post-championship hangover (Steelers) or a let's-finally-get-our-crappy-coach-fired rollover (duh), neither team seems to really have it this season. Sure, both have enough time and talent to pull it together, but they just don't look all that great thus far.

The Can You Do a Little More Before I Commit Award
Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals
With the Bengals, again I had the right division (AFC North) but picked the wrong horse. Cincinnati would have been a much better choice than Cleveland, but I had a 50-50 chance and I blew it. However, I did have the Bengals at 2-2 after four games (they are 3-1) but then losing their next six in a row, a tough stretch that looks like this: at Ravens, hosting Texans, Bears,and Ravens, and at Steelers and Raiders. If Cincinnati is a legit sleeper, they'll need to win at least three of those games. Until then, I just can't say that I'm buying.

As for the Bears, with the exception of the Green Bay game, they've done enough to win. And while Jay Cutler just strung together the best three game stretch I've ever seen from a Bears quarterback, I'm not entirely sold. Most of it is because of the defense, which has looked dreadful at the start of basically every game. I just don't see them holding up against a team with an elite offense -- you know, like the Vikings, who they still have to play twice -- and while I'm hopeful they'll be good enough to make the playoffs, I'm not exactly optimistic about it either. There appears to be eight very solid NFC teams -- the Giants, Eagles, 49ers, Falcons, Saints, Bears, Packers, and Vikings -- and only six will make the playoffs. I just hope the Bears aren't the ones left out in the cold.

Unless that cold is at a January game at Soldier Field.