October 26, 2009

7 Weak Thoughts: Week 7

1. What in God's name does Jake Delhomme have to do to lose his job?
Delhomme has been brutal. He has a league-leading 13 interceptions against just 4 touchdown passes. Here's a list of current starting QB's with a lower rating than Delhomme's 56.5. Tampa's Josh Johnson (50.9), Oakland's JaMarcus Russell (47.2), and Cleveland's Derek Anderson (40.6). While those are all terrible, at least those guys are young (or in the case of Anderson, young-ish, at 26). Delhomme is 34. Plus all of those guys are on god-awful teams, with godawfuller ground games (Tampa Bay is 23rd, Cleveland 24th, and Oakland 26th in rushing yards per game). Carolina has the league's 8th-best ground attack and could easily have a winning record if not for Delhomme's staggering incompetence.

Incidentally, the same could still be said for Kerry Collins (QB rating of 62; team 6th in rushing), but I already covered that a few weeks ago.


2. Did you know that half of the Sunday games -- that's six out of 12 -- were blowouts decided by at least 28 points?

Of course, most of them were obvious mismatches at kickoff, with a quality, playoff-type team team paired up with a steaming turd. There was New England 35, Tampa Bay 7. Green Bay 31, Cleveland 3. San Diego 37, Kansas City 7. Indianapolis 42, St. Louis 6.* NY Jets 38, Oakland 0.

* For some reason, this was the game CBS 2 in Chicago chose to carry. Actually, I know the reason: Indianapolis and St. Louis are somewhat close geographically to Chicago. This logic, however, is wholly illogical. If I had to approximate what percentage of Chicagoans are fans of either the Rams or Colts, I'd go with 0.053%. There are roughly 9.5 million people in the Chicago metropolitan area, so that's still 5,000 fans. Actually, I think my estimate might be generous. The only non-Bears teams with even a minor foothold in Chicago are the Packers and Steelers, and, to a lesser extent, the Vikings. (Additionally, the Packers and Vikings hold local interest because of they are in the same division as the Bears.) Otherwise, no one gives a flying fuck. Besides, the game was atrocious, as everybody knew it would be. The line was Colts minus-13. It should have been twice that. Seriously. The Rams are horrendous. The Colts have now won 15 straight regular season games; the Rams have lost their last 17. By the way, did you know that Steven Jackson is third in the league in rushing (635 yards) and second in total yards -- trailing only Adrian Peterson -- and yet has not scored a touchdown? Do you know who does know that? Anyone that owns him in fantasy. Anyway, I'll say this for CBS: No matter what game they decided to air, it was going to be terrible. Here were the noon games they had to choose from: Chargers at Chiefs, Colts at Rams, Patriots at Bucs, and Jets at Raiders. Total combined score of those games? 152-20. Ouch. They should have just shown re-runs of Still Standing or Big Bang Theory or some other hideous crap they're still cramming down people's throats.

Of course, there was one blowout that virtually no one saw coming: Bengals 45, Bears 10. I think it might have been the worst Bears loss in recent history. Just a horrendous effort all the way around, as they got completely and utterly blown off the field. They could have taken a busload of elementary school kids, told them they were going to compete in the regional spelling bee, and instead dropped them off at the stadium and handed them uniforms, and they would looked better and more prepared than the Bears did. Truly awful.

Before Sunday, these were the worst losses I could think of from semi-recent Bears history, starting with the latest:
1. Last year's 37-3 loss to the Packers.
A 34-point loss to a team that ended up 6-10 is not a great thing to have on the ol' resume.
2. The 49-7 loss to the 49ers in the 2003 opener.
This was Kordell Stewart's debut and effectively eliminated the Bears from playoff contention on Sept. 7.
3. San Francisco 44, Chicago 15, 1994 Divisional Playoffs.
The Bears trailed 30-3 at the half and 37-3 entering the fourth. This was the game that a frustrated Shaun Gayle drilled Steve Young like 7 yards into the end zone after the QB had scored on a 6-yard run.
But I think last week's tops (bottoms?) them all. Sure, it's probably because it's freshest in my mind, but none of the above-listed teams were supposed to be as good as this year's Bears. The playoff loss was tough, but the Bears barely squeaked in at 9-7 and the 13-3 Niners destroyed everybody on the way to the championship. The other 49ers loss was harder actually, because all of the excitement, enthusiasm, and optimism that you have as a season begins disintegrated within an hour. Still, last week's was the worst.


3. Quit punting, you sissy.
My favorite moment of the weekend: With just under nine minutes to go, the Falcons trailed the Cowboys 27-14 and faced a 4th-and-2 from their own 28. QB Matt Ryan implored coach Mike Smith to go for it, which was absolutely the right call. Yes, if you fail, Dallas is in field goal range. But converting on 4th-and-2 is very likely, so much so that there's basically less risk going for it than punting away to a Dallas offense that had scored on five of its last seven possessions.

Of course, Smith sent out the punt team, and just as predictably, the announcers supported the decision, as virtually all broadcasters -- and journalists, for that matter -- are quick to criticize anything that resembles a risk until the moment when it is too late. What I'm saying is this: Had the Falcons punted, stopped the Cowboys offense relatively quickly, gotten the ball back and ultimately faced a 4th-and-14 with under five minutes to go, the announcers would have said, "Well, they hav to go for it here," which the Falcons certainly would have done. It's idiotic. At that point, you are basically relying on converting a very, very unlikely 4th-and-long, scoring a TD, recovering an onside kick, and scoring another TD with very little time left. In other words, you have almost no chance to win the game. But had they gone for it on the much-more-makeable 4th-and-2 with much more time left to work with, had they scored on that drive, they could have kicked away, gotten a stop, and had some time to work with for a potential game-winning drive. With that scenario, their odds of winning are much greater. But announcers always are in favor of the safe, conventional play, without any thought as to the actual impact on the outcome. Going for it on fourth-and-short when trailing by two TDs midway through the fourth quarter is the right call, but unfortunately failing to convert opens the coach up to some serious second guessing. So most take the easy way out and punt.

Anyway, as the punt team trotted out onto the field, the announcers said something like, "And Mike Smith is showing his young quarterback who the head coach is." Yes, and unfortunately the head coach is a guy who mostly tries to avoid criticism (I'm speaking of head coaches in general here, not just Smith.) So it was certainly poetic justice when Dallas' Patrick Crayton fielded the punt and went untouched into the end zone to seal the Falcons' defeat; they never should have been punting in the first place. I hate the Cowboys -- in fact, I thought Atlanta would pummel them going in -- but I loved every second of that return.

I should mention that this was the second balls-free call Mike Smith has made in the last two games -- a week ago, against the Bears in the fourth quarter, he punted on a 4th-and-4 from inside the Bears 40 when a conversion could have pretty much sealed the game. I've generally been impressed by the Falcons during Smith's tenure, but his lack of aggressiveness is a disturbing red flag in my evaluation of his coaching. I'm sure he's very upset about that.


4. The Dolphins have to be the most exciting 2-4 team in NFL history.

I have now seen most of three of their games, and they've all been exceptionally entertaining. Just a fun-to-watch team, and they are much, much better than their record would indicate. If not for Davone Bess' fumble, I think they would've upset the Saints, and they already dominated the Colts but lost. They've played a very difficult schedule, and unfortunately I don't see it getting much better. But Miami is well worth watching. Although the guy below isn't.


5. Ted Ginn Jr. has the worst hands I've ever seen.
He makes David Terrell look like Steve Largent. Chris Berman should nickname him Ted "Dropped a Touchdown A-" Ginn Jr. He's terrible.


6. Cris Collinsworth is such a good broadcaster, he almost makes Al Michaels tolerable.
But not quite.


7. 40+ yard field goals are not gimmes

Okay, so this one's left over from last week, when two different teams -- Baltimore (vs. Minnesota) and Buffalo (against the Jets) -- got within "field goal range" at the end of regulation and essentially stopped trying to score a TD or even get any closer. This drives me absolutely crazy; getting into a kicker's range does not mean that he's automatic from that distance. Last year, from 40 yards and longer, NFL kickers were 291-of-406, which comes to 71.7%. Now granted, many of those misses were from 50+, but do you really want to just leave the game to a 3-in-4 chance? Especially considering that on kicks of 39 yards and shorter, those same kickers were 547-of-587, or 93.2%. Think about that. From 40-plus, your chances of a miss (and therefore a loss) are 28.3%. From less than 40, the chances of missing are 6.8%. In other words, a loss when settling for a 40+ kick is four times as likely than if you continue to drive deeper into opponents territory.

In both of the above-mentioned instances, the kicker -- the Ravens' Steven Hauschka and the Bills' Ryan Lindell -- missed, from 44 and 46 yards, respectively. That meant Baltimore lost, and Buffalo went into OT, where Lindell eventually redeemed himself by nailing a 47-yarder to win it. Still, both coaches settling for the long figgie could have cost them the win.

Why do they do this? Again, it comes down to culpability. If a team gets to the opponents' 30 and misses the field goal, it's the kicker's fault. If they get down there, and the quarterback throws an INT on a subsequent play, it's the coach's fault for passing when they were already in "field goal range." Not that coaches consciously think that way, but still.

Both teams could have tried to get closer. Holding no timeouts with 48 seconds remaining, the Ravens converted a 3rd-and-7 to get a first down at the Minnesota 29. With 30 seconds left, they threw deep. Then on second down, they rushed Ray Rice up the middle, meaning they had to spike the ball on third down to stop the clock and get the field goal team on the field. Instead of one run and a wasted down, they had the time to attempt two sideline-type passes. But coach John Harbaugh decided to just settle for the field goal, and it cost him.

The Bills game was even worse. Buffalo took over at the Jets 49 holding two timeouts with 3:55 remaining. Not only did they call five rushes and one pass -- the run was effective, so that part was reasonable -- but the Bills were in no hurry whatsoever. They ran plays at 3:55, 3:19, 2:46, 2:00, 1:19, and :39 before kicking at :04. They easily could've run twice as many plays, and gotten Lindell much, much closer. And while it didn't cost them the game, it should have.

Coaches should only settle for the field goal when they have to. If you're inside the 20, you don't want to take unnecessary risks, but otherwise these coaches shouldn't just assume that the kicks are automatic. Because they aren't.

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