Sure the draft sucked. Will the Bulls?

Despite nearly 5,000 words last week acknowledging my inevitable disappointment in the Bulls' draft, I was still somehow still disappointed by the Bulls' draft. (They chose forwards James Johnson and Taj Gibson if, unlike me, your happiness and optimistic world view weren't hanging in the balance as they selected.)

My main issue with Johnson is that he's a tweener. At 6-foot-8, 260-pounds, there should be no doubt that he is a power forward. Instead, there's this (from K.C. Johnson of the Trib):

"Johnson, who played point guard in high school, reiterated his preference to play small forward despite playing power forward at Wake Forest."

I'm sorry, because I know the guy (allegedly) has a black belt in karate and some mixed martial arts fights to his credit, but he sounds like a wuss. His bulk makes his relative lack of height irrelevant, and he should be an absolute beast down low. Instead he wants to freelance on the wing. I'd call that the path of least resistance, as fighting for position in the post is much harder than standing at the 3-point line and firing up jumpers. He sounds a lot like Rodney Rogers, coincidentally another Wake Forest guy. Rogers was a decent enough NBA player, but with his size and skill he should have been a force of nature. Instead, he was content to let others do the banging down low, and spent most of his career avoiding contact. Unfortunately, Rogers would appear to be Johnson's ceiling. On the other end of the similarity spectrum? Marcus Fizer. That's generally not a good thing.

Gibson is a 214-pound twig of a defensive specialist who's a shade under 6-10. He's also a bit of a tweener, and I'm guessing the Bulls envision him playing some center when they go small, one of Vinny Del Negro's go-to moves as the Bulls coach. At 26 overall in a week draft, expectations won't be very high, and its doubtful he cracks the rotation in the early going, because while he is USC's all-time leader in blocked shots, his offensive game is a work-in-progress. But at 24, how much progress does he have left?

And that's my issue with both guys. They seem to have low ceilings. Johnson is already 22, just six months younger than incumbent power forward Tyrus Thomas, who will be entering his fourth year. At 24, Gibson is probably done growing as a player. At a juncture in the draft when they should've been rolling the dice, the Bulls played it safe.

Neither player will be as good as DeJuan Blair. Bad knees and all.

Seeing how far short-but-bruising power forward Blair dropped, I thought maybe there really is something severely wrong with his knees, to the point that they will hinder him as a player, even if he manages to avoid a catastrophic injury. But then he landed in San Antonio and I thought, 'Nope. Getting picked by RC Buford and the Spurs guaranteed that Blair will be a stud, because that's exactly what the Spurs do, get good players that everyone else passed on (see: Parker, Tony; Ginobili, Manu; Scola, Luis.) Next year fans around the country will wonder how in the world this guy wasn't a first round pick. If Blair had ended up virtually anywhere else, I might have had some doubts, but getting picked by the Spurs definitively exterminated them. It doesn't matter how many supposedly undersized power forwards come into the league and succeed; general managers around the NBA still haven't learned.

But as a result of the draft, I have learned the following about the Bulls:

1. Despite the presence of Tim Thomas and Jerome James, the Bulls realized they didn't have a backup power forward on the roster.

Before the draft, Tyrus Thomas was really the Bulls' only power forward, unless you count Joakim Noah, who happens to be their starting center. James career is likely over, as he was awful to begin with and now has a knee that DeJuan Blair wouldn't trade for. Tim Thomas got some run early on after being acquired from the Knicks, but seeing how little he played in the playoffs, I'm guessing another Bulls banishment (see: 2005) is in his future. He's not exactly the kind of influence you want around your young players. James and Thomas -- both under contract for one more season, at about $6 million apiece -- are nothing more than salary-cap fodder that the Bulls will try to mix-and-match in different deals.

Knowing this, the Bulls took two 4s, regardless of Johnson's stated preferences. Which, by the way, the team must've learned about during the draft-vetting process. At least we hope.

2. The Bulls have no plans to trade Kirk Hinrich.

Unless they are confident they can get a decent backup point guard in return, they almost have to hold onto Hinrich. Hinrich could be a very useful sixth man, as he can be plugged in at either guard spot. While we'd all like him to be a better shooter, he can be a great glue guy. 10 mil a season is a lot to pay for some glue though.

Unless the Bulls are planning on giving Lindsey Hunter 8-10 minutes per game spelling Derrick Rose, Hinrich almost has to stay, as he's the only other guy on the roster who can play the point. If the Bulls would've wanted to shed Hinrich, they would have picked a young point guard instead of Gibson with that second pick. By not doing so, they have a lot less flexibility if they do decide to deal him, as they'd have to insist on a backup PG as part of the return package.

3. If anyone's on the trading block, it's Tyrus Thomas.

My initial thoughts immediately following the draft was that the Bulls were trying to replace Tyrus Thomas. Which they are. Just not with either of those two.

The Bulls likely have their eyes on a bigger prize -- Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudamire? -- and I'm sure Tyrus still has some decent value around the league. Packaged with one of the Bulls' many expiring contract -- or maybe in a sign-and-trade with Gordon -- he might actually bring back a pretty good 4 in return, and that player will need a backup, which is where Johnson and Gibson come in; if the Bulls are lucky, one of them will pan out.

But I am certain that if the Bulls trade Tyrus, that will be all the additional motivation he needs to be a star. I think he already is very close to making a leap. I hope the Bulls at least try giving him 35-40 minutes a game this upcoming season -- which would include playing him extensively in fourth quarters, Vinny -- to see what he can do, instead of flipping him just when he is beginning to show signs that he is putting it all together. Giving up on Tyrus at 22 would be the wrong move, just like jettisoning a 22-year-old Tyson Chandler was. Unless they can get a proven star in return, they should hang on to him.

4. Either they are certain they are going to re-sign Ben Gordon (anguished Nooooooooooo!) or they are planning on moving John Salmons to shooting guard.

After being a longtime supporter of Ben Gordon, I no longer am after this past season. Rose is undoubtedly the franchise's future, and he and Gordon are not a good fit together. In fact, given Gordon's ball-dominating proclivities, I believe he would be a retardant to Rose's development. While Gordon has the shooting ability you'd want to surround Rose with, the ideal running mate would be a taller, more-physical player who's not a defensive liability.

A guy kind of like John Salmons.

Granted, Salmons is not perfect either, as he tends to dominate the ball a bit too. But he and Rose together would give the Bulls some much-needed size in the backcourt, something they've lacked for the last several years. Salmons can shoot the 3 a bit, at a shade better than 41% over the last two seasons, and also provides a more economical option than Gordon. Plus, the drafting of Johnson might be proof that Salmons is penciled into the backcourt. If Salmons is out of the forward equation, Luol Deng would then be the only 3 on the roster, making Johnson's desire to play small forward more palatable to the Bulls.

If they don't re-sign Gordon, the Bulls might be left with a huge hole at shooting guard after this upcoming season, as Salmons has an opt-out. While others are dreaming about Dwyane Wade in a Bulls uniform come 2010, I have a more realistic target: Joe Johnson. At 6-7 with a good 3-point stroke, Johnson would be perfect with Rose. Plus, he can play on the ball or off, providing the Bulls additional flexibility. While I'd love Wade too, and there's no doubt he's the superior player to Johnson, I don't think the Bulls have any chance of signing him. Johnson should therefore be the target from the get-go, not the fallback position.

That's all dependent, of course, on the Bulls not re-signing Gordon. I'm hoping that all the Bulls' talk of wanting to keep Gordon is mere posturing, and they'll just back off when someone else (Pistons?) makes a big offer.

The last two off-seasons, I preferred Gordon to Deng. Gordon has one certifiable NBA skill: he can put the ball in the basket. However, he's a terrible ballhandler -- not a good thing for a guy who's maybe 6-1 -- and a resounding defensive zero. Deng, on the other hand, isn't exceptional in any area, but doesn't have any holes in his game, either. And this one of the hallmarks of a poor organization: that is, they look at a player and only see what he can't do, instead of the things he does well. The Bulls evaluate their players based on their weaknesses -- Gordon can't play defense, Tyrus has no post game, Noah's not strong enough -- and become blinded to their strengths. So the organization makes Deng the bigger priority, even though he doesn't do anything particularly well, because he doesn't have any major shortcomings. Meanwhile, Gordon is clearly the more valuable player.

But the fact is the Bulls already extended Deng, and with that contract he's not going anywhere. With Hinrich apparently here to stay as well, that's about $23 million per season. How much more money do they want to tie up in non-superstars? If they have any hope of luring a free agent, they can't have around $33 million a year committed to guys who would then be their 3rd, 4th, and 5th options at best. Remember, at some point Thomas, Noah, and even Rose himself are going to be up for extensions, too. You can't keep everyone, and given the guys they've already got under contract, Gordon has to be the odd man out. There's just not enough room and he's not a good fit. At some point they need to position themselves to actually get better. Keeping Gordon will ensure more first-round playoff mediocrity.

Of course, the Bulls might then be left empty handed at the 2 in 2010 if they are spurned by their free agent targets, but it's worth the risk. They aren't becoming one of the NBA's elite with Gordon starting. If he were willing to play for the mid-level and be a sixth-man extraordinaire, then he'd be a viable option. But Gordon doesn't seem to know his own limitations. While it's likely the belief that he can do anything that makes him such an assassin as a fourth-quarter scorer, it's also his downfall as a player.

5. The Bulls didn't believe there were any players left at #26, so they figured their best bet would be to go big.

There's an old adage about the NBA draft that goes something like, 'If you're going to make a mistake, do it with size.' I think this was the wrong strategy, because I would have rather they taken a risk with the pick, and go with someone with more upside than a 24-year-old four-and-a-half. If you don't believe the pick has much value, why go for low-ceiling player? The Bulls under John Paxson have proven to be risk averse. Which might be why they are still at the bottom of the playoff barrel after six years of Paxson and all those lottery picks.

6. Whoever's calling the shots, it doesn't seem like the Bulls philosophy has changed.

I assumed when John Paxson stepped aside and Gar Forman was named GM that Pax would still be calling the shots as executive vice president of basketball operations.

After the draft, I realized it doesn't matter.

The Bulls are still doing the exact same things. They picked two guys without a position. They lauded those players' strong family backgrounds. They went with what they considered to be the safest options. They ignored a superior player who better fit their needs. In short, it was business as usual.

If this draft marked the beginning of the Gar Forman Era, it appears to be indistinguishable from John Paxson's. But with free agency beginning today, I hope the Bulls make a break from their clear tendency to overvalue their players -- in the last few off-seasons alone, they have given ridiculous contracts to Hinrich, Deng, and Andres Nocioni -- and let Ben Gordon walk.

If they do, I just might forgive them for passing on DeJuan Blair.