I don't feel a draft

The NBA draft, normally my second-favorite day of the year behind this one, is upon us. So why am I just a little blasé? Look where the Bulls have chosen overall in the last several years:

1, 4, 8, 2, 4, 2, 7, 3, 7, 2, 9, 1

That's 12 top-10 picks in the last 10 drafts, including eight in the top-5 and five in the top-2. All I could think after seeing all those picks was, Why the hell aren't they the best team in the league by now? If you, too, are wondering how they can barely be scraping into the playoffs, see below. In the meantime, let's focus briefly on the acute draft apathy from which I'm suffering.

While the Bulls do have two picks, Nos. 16 and 26, it's not easy to go from a decade of lottery dreams to a day of latter-half dregs. This makes me the least pumped up (most pumped down?) I've been since 2005, when the Bulls had no picks at all in the draft thanks mostly to the previous year's trade for Luol Deng. Alas, such is the price of (minimal) success. And the axing of Isiah Thomas. Even during the Bulls three-year playoff run from '05 - '07, they remained in the lottery thanks to GM John Paxson's annual pantsing of Thomas. Oh how we miss you Isiah.

Despite my ennui, I have paid enough attention to form two primary opinions as to what the Bulls' course of action should be:

1. If DeJuan Blair is on the board, take him.

Hell hath no fury like a Mr. SKIA who gets James Johnson or B.J. Mullens instead. Blair is exactly what the Bulls have been searching for up front: A tough, physical presence who will be immovable on the blocks. I'm almost hoping he won't be on the board, because I'm going to be devastated when he's there and they don't take him.

Sure, Blair's a little short, but in the last few years, we've seen several undersized power forwards (Paul Millsap, Carl Landry, Leon Powe) who dropped in the draft because of their height and went on to become very productive players. Another issue with Blair is the combination of his weight (excessive) and his knees (bad). He might eat his way out of the league, or his ACLs might explode, making him a bit of a risk. But it pisses me off that in the NBA, teams are constantly rolling the dice on unskilled and undeveloped "high-ceiling" prospects while shying away from guys that have a history of injuries. Aren't they both just risks? Why is one considered appealing and not the other?

Job security.

If a general manager drafts a player like DeMar DeRozan, the first thing out of his mouth will be, "He won't make an immediate impact, but we think he can be a star in this league." This effectively buys him several years. Even after three seasons of little production, the GM can always fall back on the curious case of Jermaine O'Neal: "We feel DeMar will break out this year. He's still only 22. In this league, young players often don't establish themselves until their fourth season. Or later. Look at Jermaine O'Neal. He didn't average more than five points a game until his fifth year, and the season after that he got the first of six All-Star berths." Ultimately, by the time we're absolutely positive a guy's a bust, so many years -- and successive drafts -- have passed that if the same GM is still on the job, it's just a distant part of his resume.

Contrast that to an injury risk. If Paxson takes Blair and in a season or two he blows out his knee, the uproar is instant. How could he have taken a guy with known health issues when so-and-so (one of the few players picked after Blair who will become productive) was still on the board? An injury is a much more immediate result than a failure to live up to potential, and so for a GM, a guy with bad knees is a much bigger risk than a project. Even if he's probably less of one for the franchise.

2. If you can't get into the top-10, don't package the two picks to move up in the draft.

Finding stars outside of the top-10 is difficult in any draft, let alone a horribly weak one like this year's. By my count, there are only three guys who would be surefire lottery picks in a normal year: Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio, and Hasheem Thabeet. Maybe two others, Stephen Curry and Tyreke Evans. And that's really it.* In my view, there is a huge drop-off in talent after the top-5, which ESPN.com's research says is typical. That same research also shows a steep decline immediately after the top-10.

* I also really like Ty Lawson, too, but no NBA team seems to. He might still be around when the Bulls make their second pick, let alone the first.

The rumor is the Bulls have been looking to trade their two picks for New Jersey's 11th or possibly even Indiana's 13th. Doesn't that seem like way too steep of a price to pay to move up (at most) five slots? Just hold on to both picks. Please.

Take a look at the last eight** 16th picks: Marreese Speights, Nick Young, Rodney Carney, Joey Graham, Kirk Snyder, Troy Bell, Jiri Welsch, and Kirk Haston. God that's atrocious. But here are the 26th picks from those same drafts: George Hill, Aaron Brooks, Jordan Farmar, Jason Maxiell, Kevin Martin, Ndudi Ebi, John Salmons, and Samuel Dalembert. Is there any doubt that the latter group is better? You have one star (Martin), several starters and rotation guys, and one total misfire (Ebi). Among the 16's, Young has shown flashes, but only Speights has a shot at really becoming a player.

** Fine, I'll admit it: I went eight years deep and not 10 (as I originally intended) because nine years ago Hedo Turkoglu went 16th and 10 years ago it was Ron Artest. Which makes the crappiness of the pick look much less pronounced. Happy now?

Huh. I feel better already. I guess it's true what they say, confession really is good for the soul. So how about this: I sometimes manipulate information to support my argument. Uh-oh. Now I've gone to far.

The point is, lower-half drafting is a crapshoot. If outside of the top-10 you have less than a 50-50 shot of finding a decent player, aren't you better off taking two shots at it? I have to believe that if they hold onto both picks, one of the selections will pan out.

Then again, I am an eternal optimist.

So who do I want? I'm hoping for Blair and Florida's Nick Calathes***, a 6-5 combo guard who could make both Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon -- especially Gordon, I hope -- expendable.

*** My dream scenario would be Blair and Lawson, but I doubt Lawson drops quite that far.

Of the players the Bulls are supposedly considering with their first pick, here's how I'd rank them:

1. DeJuan Blair (Pro: A young, low-post beast. Con: Appetite.)
2. Omri Casspi (Pro: Religious affiliation. Con: Know nothing else about him.)
3. B.J. Mullens (Pro: Size, youth. Con: Lack of production.)
4. James Johnson (Pro: Bulk. Con: A bit old at 22.)
5. Terrence Williams (Pro: Size in the backcourt. Con: He plays in the backcourt.)
6. Tyler Hansbrough (Pro: Ummm... Nickname? Con: He's gonna suck.)

Additionally, I like Earl Clark and Austin Daye more than any of them besides Blair, but supposedly neither is on the Bulls' radar.

With the second pick, after Calathes and all the guys (minus Psycho T) listed above, I guess I'd like two guys from North Carolina not named Hansbrough: Wayne Ellington and Danny Green.

So do I think the Bulls will do what I want? Well, they have gotten the player I've wanted for the last few years. Still, I think that's just a fluke. I'm pretty sure I'll be disappointed by the end of the night. That's ususally the way at work

I've taken a look at their last 10 drafts, dating back to 1999, when their run of lottery picks began. For each year I have who they took, who I wanted, the best combination of players available at each of their picks, and then some other notables. Each player's name is preceded by his draft position, with undrafted players represented with --. My commentary is also included, if that's what you're into.

1999
Selected: 1 Elton Brand, 16 Ron Artest, 32 Michael Ruffin, 49 Lari Ketner
I wanted: Anyone but 4 Lamar Odom, 38 Laron Profit, 56 Tim Young
Best combination: 3 Baron Davis, 24 Andrei Kirilenko, 57 Manu Ginobili, -- Raja Bell
Other notables: 9 Shawn Marion, 18 James Posey, -- Chris Anderson

Going into the draft, nobody knew if the Bulls would take Brand, Odom, or Steve Francis. Brand was considered the safe pick, which in retrospect was dead on. Incidentally, Odom was thought to be more of a headcase/potential problem child than Francis, but the Bulls wanted to avoid any potential character issues regardless. Showing an uncanny grasp of their objective, they then took Artest with their second first-rounder.

Still, the Bulls actually did really well here. I'm not sure that Brand/Artest isn't a better combination than Davis/Kirilenko, and I can hardly fault them for missing Ginobili, as virtually everyone did -- twice -- and finding a guy like that is like picking a golden booger: sure it's great, but how the hell did it happen?

2000
Selected: 4 Marcus Fizer, 8 Jamal Crawford, 24 Dalibor Bagaric, 32 A.J. Guyton, 33 Jake Voskuhl, 34 Khalid El-Amin
I wanted: 3 Darius Miles, 18 Quentin Richardson, 37 Eddie House
Best combination: 5 Mike Miller, 16 Hedo Turkoglu, 30 Marko Jaric, House, 38 Eduardo Najera, 43 Michael Redd
Other notables: 9 Joel Przybilla, 17 Desmond Mason, 21 Morris Peterson

A god-awful draft; when Przybilla and Mo Pete qualify as notables, you know it's bad. Here's the top 7: Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Miles, Fizer, Miller, DerMarr Johnson, Chris Mihm. Just a horrible group of players, and of course the Bulls had more picks than ever.

I wanted Miles and Richardson because they were from Illinois (the state, not the school) and House because he had scored 137 points (It was only 61 -- Ed.) one night against Cal. With Miles off the board by the time the Bulls selected, I actually thought Fizer was a good pick. Sure, he replicated Brand a bit, but he could flat-out score.

No he couldn't.

2001
Selected: 2 Tyson Chandler, 4 Eddy Curry, 29 Trenton Hassell, 44 Sean Lampley
I wanted: Chandler, 30 Gilbert Arenas
Best combination: 3 Pau Gasol, 10 Joe Johnson, Arenas, -- Jamario Moon
Other notables: 13 Richard Jefferson, 28 Tony Parker, 38 Mehmet Okur

On draft night, Jerry Krause shocked everyone by sending Brand to the Clippers for the No. 2 overall pick. He then chose Chandler before getting Curry with the Bulls' original pick. The move ultimately cost Krause his job, as the fans -- despite the six titles -- were perfectly willing to turn on him anyway, in part because Krause was unfairly blamed for breaking up the Bulls. While Jackson and Jordan had made it pretty obvious after the '98 Finals that they were both going to retire, they never made any official announcements. Instead, they intentionally dragged their feet so that Krause -- forced to make other plans knowing that neither would return -- would look like the bad guy, the one who broke up the best party in Chicago's history. Walking away might have brought a little animosity from the fans, so Jackson and Jordan turned Krause, who neither had much use for, into the man that forced them out.

Fans were more perfectly willing to buy Krause-as-parade-pisser for one reason: Jerry Krause is a slovenly fat man. People, despite an unwillingness to admit it, have definite biases towards the attractive, something Krause most certainly was not. I have no doubt that had Krause looked like Theo Epstein, he would still be one of the most beloved figures in Chicago. People can say they didn't like Krause because he was arrogant -- which he was, and rightfully so, I might add -- but it was his appearance that made his personality unacceptable.

Having said that, this draft was pretty much a disaster. Although I must admit I can at least see what Krause was thinking. With a pair of seven-footers -- one a mammoth low-post scorer with soft hands and the other a lithe and athletic defensive eraser -- the Bulls would be unstoppable up front. They could try the huge lineup of Crawford, Artest, Fizer, Chandler, and Curry and no one in the league would be able to match their size, speed, and strength.

Only a few things went horribly wrong:

1. The league tightened the rules on hand-checking and other contact, making it a guard-oriented game, and going small became a much more effective strategy than trying to pound the opponent with size.
2. The NBA finally decided to allow zone defense.
3. Chandler couldn't score to save his life.
4. Curry couldn't rebound.^
5. Or play defense.
6. Or try, really.

^ When asked what Curry could do to be a better rebounder, Bulls coach Scott Skiles once famously replied, "Jump." And I assure you that he wasn't joking. I can't speak to his practice habits, but I've never seen worse on-court effort than Curry's. Not only did he rarely jump for rebounds, Curry also missed out on several potential flat-footed ones because he wouldn't even lift his arms. Honestly. When you think raising your arms requires too much effort, now that's lazy.

In reality, Chandler and Curry were not perfect complements; instead they were one franchise-altering player tragically split into two guys. Chandler's boardwork, defense, and energy combined with Curry's size and low post scoring would've made for the best center of this era. But pairing these divergent skill sets together didn't work on either end. Curry's shortcomings (read: complete lack of effort) on the defensive end meant Chandler basically had to guard two guys, which obviously leaves one wide open, while Chandler's ineffectiveness on offense made Curry exceptionally easy to double.

While Paxson, Krause's replacement, was able to get a great return for Curry by bamboozling Isiah, he made a huge mistake in moving Chandler. The Ben Wallace signing -- which is supposed to have been mostly Jerry Reinsdorf's doing -- gave the Bulls two very similar, highly-paid offensively-limited, defense-oriented post players. With the Bulls eyeing the big raises Hinrich, Deng, and Gordon would be due, Chandler and his 5-year, $55-million contract were essentially given to the Hornets.^^

^^ The Bulls received P.J. Brown and J.R. Smith in return, after insisting they only get back guys who went by initials. Because of Smith's allegedly horrible practice habits -- a huge no-no in the Scott Skiles era -- he was immediately flipped to Denver in an equally terrible trade.

But there was no reason to ship out Chandler at a time when his value was at an all-time low. After signing that big-money extension, he had suffered through some mysterious health problems (Hiatal hernia? What the fuck is that?) in '05-'06 and basically had his worst season. But he was still just 23, and had improved in each of his first four years before regressing that year. And while Chandler and Wallace together would have been a little redundant, it's not like the Bulls were loaded in the front court. They certainly could've found reasonable minutes for both, at least in the short term. Shouldn't they have tried it for a year? Or at least a few months? It's not like Chandler's value could have dropped any lower. Additionally, they didn't need the cap space until the following season anyway, so there was no need to just give him away. The larger, mostly unspoken issue was that Skiles and Chandler didn't get along. In this case, the coach was chosen over the player.

Skiles was fired a less than a year and a half later.

The other thing I hated about this draft -- and really what I still find most inexcusable -- was the selection of Hassell over Arenas with the first pick of the second round. I loved Arenas, based mostly on a six-steal performance in a Final Four game that year as a sophomore, which was still considered young at that time. I couldn't believe that Arenas had somehow dropped out of the first round, and was livid that the Bulls failed to scoop him up in the second. If there was anything Krause should have been raked over the coals for, this is it.

And so I hated Trenton Hassell. His game was boring, and he had no offensive skill whatsoever. The worst part was, everyone else seemed to love him. I remember becoming enraged on multiple occasions on hearing radio announcers Neil Funk and Paxson, both of whom I liked very much, talk about what a steal Hassell was. Former coaches Bill Cartwright and Skiles were both big fans, showering him with much more playing time than his performance warranted. I didn't care about his supposedly good defense -- which earned him a lot of money in the leauge -- I couldn't stand Trenton Hassell. I even got to the point that I considered recruiting others to go to games with me just to heckle him, and I was going to make a sign that said Hassel's Hasslers. And no, I did not make up any part of that last sentence.

2002
Selected: 2 Jay Williams, 30 Roger Mason Jr., 43 Lonny Baxter
I wanted: Williams, 44 Sam Clancy
Best combination: 9 Amare Stoudemire, 34 Carlos Boozer, -- Udonis Haslem
Other notables: 10 Caron Butler, 23 Tayshaun Prince, 26 John Salmons

I was never a huge Jason Williams fan at Duke, but he was quick as hell and showed flashes as a rookie. I don't think he got much of a fair shake with the team, as I believe that Crawford, ticked about potentially being replaced as the Bulls' lead guard, poisoned the locker room against him (with an assist from Jalen Rose.)

Still, given the crackdown on hand-checking, I think Williams would have been a great NBA player; his 26-point, 14-rebound, 13-assist triple double in the seventh game of his career was one of the most impressive performances by a rookie that I've ever seen. Williams had quickly become the face of one of basketball's keystone franchises, but really, how much satisfaction does that bring? Sure, he might've been young millionaire jetting across the country with his choice of beautiful young women in every city, but Jay Williams needed a thrill. So he got himself motorcycle, and within weeks he had set the Bulls franchise back several years, just as Len Bias' cocaine-related death did to the Celtics. Coincidentally, both were No. 2 overall selections.

2003
Selected: 7 Kirk Hinrich, 36 Mario Austin, 45 Matt Bonner, 53 Tommy Smith
I wanted: 5 Dwyane Wade
Best combination: 18 David West, 47 Mo Williams, 51 Kyle Korver, -- Marquis Daniels
Other notables: 8 TJ Ford, 28 Leandro Barbosa, 29 Josh Howard

Everyone thought that the Bulls would get local kid Dwyane Wade at No. 7. I'd compare it to the pre-draft certainty that recently surrounded the Stephen Curry and New York. But instead of rumors of other teams' interest leaking out days before the draft (like has happened with the Knicks), the Heat's Pat Riley played it close to the vest and swung a surprising draft-day deal to move up to the No. 5 pick and steal Wade. I know I'm going out on a limb here, but that Pat Riley, he knows what he's doing.

With Wade off the board, I was pulling for Jarvis Hayes, who eventually went 1oth and hasn't been half the player that Hinrich is. Besides, with Williams accident coming just days before Paxson's first draft as GM, there was a palpable sense of urgency to fill that gaping hole at the point, Jamal Crawford's feelings be damned. Still, I wasn't happy with the Hinrich pick, and I remember saying to my friend Matt, "C'mon, Pax. You can't draft yourself."

The truth is, while Hinrich is definitely no Wade, he's probably been better than Paxson was. While he lacks Paxson's dead-eye marksmanship, he is much more physical and a far better defender. Then again... I'd still take Pax. That guy was a fucking assassin.

2004
Selected: 3 Ben Gordon, 7 Luol Deng, 31 Jackson Vroman, 38 Chris Duhon
I wanted: 9 Andre Iguodala, 11 Andris Biedrins
Best combination: 5 Devin Harris, 15 Al Jefferson, Duhon, 43 Tervor Ariza
Other notables: 17 Josh Smith, 20 Jameer Nelson, 26 Kevin Martin

Though I hate Arizona, I often like their players, especially Iguodala, Arenas, and Hassan Adams. I supposed two-out-of-three ain't bad. I loved Iguodala's athleticism, but he was a very raw offensive player, which is probably why the Bulls opted for Deng.

I became a Biedrins fan when I read that he was this scrawny Russian kid who had recently fallen in love with weight lifting. By this point, I was tired of Curry's tiresome tiredness, and wanted the Bulls to nab another big man, but Paxson had targeted Gordon and Deng.

The Bulls got the pick they used on Deng because of Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver's penny-pinching, as he had a team near the salary cap and he didn't want to pay the rookie scale for the No. 7 pick. Phoenix got the Bulls' 2005 first-rounder (which ended up being 21st overall) in the exchange.

Despite not being Luol Deng's biggest fan, I have to admit that was a damn good deal for the Bulls.

2005
Original picks: 21 (Nate Robinson) traded for Deng, 51 (Robert Whaley) traded in 2000 (!) for Bryce Drew (?)
Best combination: 30 David Lee, 57 Marcin Gortat
Other notables: 40 Monta Ellis, 50 Ryan Gomes, -- Kelenna Azubuike

2006
Selected: 4 Tyrus Thomas, 13 Thabo Sefolosha, 46 (Dee Brown) traded in 2000 (!!) for Bryce Drew (??)^^^
I wanted: Thomas, 14 Ronnie Brewer
Best combination: 7 Brandon Roy, 21 Rajon Rondo, 47 Paul Millsap
Other notables: 2 LaMarcus Aldridge, 8 Rudy Gay, 49 Leon Powe

^^^ I'll just say it here, so it sinks in: Two 2nd rounders for Bryce Drew. Look, I realize that very few guys taken in the latter half of the first round, let alone the second, ever pan out. So finding a stud with a pick in the 40's or 50's is a major longshot. But still... If I had a handful of lottery tickets, I wouldn't just throw them away because the odds are bad. I'd at least wait until the drawing and check the numbers. That's what the Bulls should have done. Instead they traded two Mega-Million tickets for a lousy used scratch off.

Bulls originally had picks 2 (from Isiah) and 16, but made two separate draft-day deals. They were supposedly were torn between Aldridge and Thomas, but I feared they'd take eventual No. 3 pick Adam Morrison, because he fit the gym-rat profile that Paxson has an affinity for. I had misgivings about them all -- Aldridge: Soft, not very athletic; Morrison: Terrible defense, getting shot off against NBA athletes; Thomas: Name sounded like a bust.

ESPN.com's Chad Ford -- who to me is unequivically the best pre-draft source out there -- had the Bulls preferring Thomas, and I honestly don't remember who I wanted between him and Aldridge. I went with Thomas here because, despite what is perceived as a major gap in their production, I prefer him over Aldridge. In the eyes of many Bulls fans, the biggest misstep of Paxson's tenure has been swapping Aldridge-for-Thomas, but the main difference between the two is their respective playing time. Aldridge is undoubtedly the more polished offensive player, but most of his statistical advantages are simply the result of having gotten more minutes. Take a look at their career stats:

Aldridge: 15.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 1.3 TO, .487 FG%, .764 FT%
Thomas: 7.7 ppg, 5 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.8 steals, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 TO, .447 FG%, .724 FT%

Advantage, Aldridge, more or less across the board. But he has averaged 32 minutes per game, Thomas 20. Per 36 minutes played, the stats look like this:

Aldridge: 17.3 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.8 steals, 1.2 blocks, 1.5 TO
Thomas: 14 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks, 2.4 TO

Granted, Thomas is still not much of a marksman, and the turnovers are a bit problematic. But he beats Aldridge everywhere else. Plus he's already made himself a much better shooter -- his free-throw shooting has gone from 60.6% his rookie year to 78.3% this past season, and he actually has a semi-effective jumper now -- and there is no doubt that he's much more of a game-changer defensively. Yes, Aldridge is two inches taller, but Thomas makes up for his relative lack of height with incredible hops, as he gets off the floor faster than anyone I've ever seen. Plus he's a year younger than Aldridge. At the end of the day, I would rather have Tyrus Thomas than LaMarcus Aldridge.

As for passing on Brandon Roy, that's another story.

2007
Selected: 9 Joakim Noah, 49 Aaron Gray, 51 JamesOn Curry
I wanted: Noah, 48 Marc Gasol, 59 D.J. Strawberry
Best combination: 12 Thaddeus Young, 56 Ramon Sessions, -- Joel Anthony
Other notables: 10 Spencer Hawes, 15 Rodney Stuckey, 35 Glen Davis

This draft is most memorable because I really wanted Noah, and when he was still there at 9, I was convinced the Bulls would take Hawes instead. Noah's been pretty damn productive since Day 1, but like Thomas is often viewed as deficient because of his inadequate minutes. And I'm not sure if it's because of Noah's perceived flamboyance, but Bulls fans seemed to be very anxious to label him a bust. Given his exceptional performance in the playoffs, I have to assume all of that talk is now dead.

I wanted Gasol because I figured, Hey, he's Pau Gasol's brother, how bad can he be? Apparently the Lakers thought the same thing. With Strawberry I figured, Hey, he's Darryl Strawberry's son, how bad can he be? I also hoped I'd be able to see tiny clumps of cocaine drop out of his nose in HD.

2008
Selected: 1 Derrick Rose, 39 Sonny Weems
I wanted: Rose, 40 Chris Douglas-Roberts
Best combination: Rose, 55 Goran Dragic
Other notables: 2 Michael Beasley, 5 Kevin Love, 10 Brook Lopez

After a season in which the Bulls seemed to go from Eastern Conference contenders-on-the-rise to zero-effort also-rans within a few weeks, they lucked into the No. 1 pick. I wanted Rose, but wouldn't have been unhappy with Beasley, either. My favorite player in the draft was Love, but not at No. 1. He was the guy I was pulling for before the Bulls, with only the ninth-worst record, won the lottery.

The Douglas-Roberts thing was based entirely on wanting to ease Rose's transition to Chicago. After DeAndre Jordan unexpectedly fell out of the first round, I wanted him badly but the Clippers snagged him at 35. I was never a big fan of CDR's game, though he probably was the best guy on the board at 39. Regardless, it's still way, way too early to judge this draft. Besides, the Bulls quickly traded Weems and a few future second-rounders to Portland for Turkish centerOmer Asik, who should make it to the NBA sometime in the next 14 years.

And that's about it, other than this: the mere writing of this entry has given me new-found enthusiasm for the 2009 NBA draft. Which only means I will be that much more crushed when the Bulls don't get DeJuan Blair.

But as I mentioned, I am an eternal optimist.