May 1, 2009

8 keys for Game 7

Pfffffftt.

That's my biggest worry about Game 7. Not that the Bulls will lose, but that the game will be a dud, and the series -- which has been so incredibly entertaining -- will go out with a whimper. Truth be told, I don't even want the series to end. And that's the most difficult thing, really, that win or lose, Bulls-Celtics will be over after tonight.

As much as I would love to see the Bulls continue their playoff run, I honestly am not that concerned about the outcome as long as they continue to show the kind of fight that has epitomized their play thus far. Obviously I want them to win, and am not going to be happy if they don't, but if they're going to lose, I want to see them go down swinging.

Having said that, there's basically no way Game 7 will be another barnburner. It simply can't happen again. Of course, I thought that about each of the last two games, so what the fuck do I know? Well, I know that I really want the game to be competitive.

Here's how the Bulls can ensure that it is:

1. Withstand the early push. Boston is likely to come out on fire, amped up by the home crowd to the point that I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a double-digit lead early. The Bulls have to be sure their deficit doesn't grow much beyond that, however; falling behind by 13 is fine, but if it gets to 23 or so, it's over. The Bulls must go all-out to make sure they stay in the game. Because the longer they hang around, the more pressure Boston is going to feel.

2. Play team ball. The Bulls are at their best when they run plays and move the ball. When it becomes "Give the ball to Gordon because he's heating up," and then he dribbles around trying to shed a double team before firing a heavily-contested shot, the results tend to be bad. There is nothing wrong with feeding the hot hand, but do so within the context of the offense. Put the ball in Derrick Rose's hands, and let him run the team. Speaking of which...

3. Don't let Derrick Rose disappear. For me, the only troubling thing about Game 6 was Rose's vanishing act from the end of regulation until the beginning of the 3rd overtime, when he thankfully stepped back up. Before that, though, he was so passive that it appeared he was shrinking from the moment. That's disturbing behavior from your franchise cornerstone. When Gordon fouled out, I thought, Good, now the ball will at least be in Rose's hands. But no. Rose instead deferred to John Salmons, and played hot potato every time the ball swung his way. I was screaming for Vinny Del Negro to grab Rose by the throat and yell, "Get in the game! We need you!" but he seemed content to let him fade into the background. The Bulls cannot allow that to happen again.

4. Don't let Paul Pierce get to his favorite spot in crucial moments. The most annoying thing about Game 5 was allowing Pierce to hit four huge shots (one at the end of regulation, and another three in the final 1:16 of overtime) from basically the same spot on the floor, just beyond the right elbow. The Bulls finally seemed to catch onto this in Game 6, and sent a double to prevent it. Whatever you guys did, make sure you keep doing it.

5. Hope Ray Allen somehow gets cold. No one on this Bulls team can stop him. He's made shots in virtually everyone's face. The Bulls have primarily started with Ben Gordon on him -- Gordon would have trouble preventing Tony Allen from scoring 51 -- before turning to Kirk Hinrich, who hasn't been able to slow him down either. While Hinrich might be the only Bull with the will to fight through all the screens they run for Allen, he's also the Bulls' best Pierce defender, so switching him to Allen creates a second problem without solving the first. I would try using Salmons extensively; maybe his length will bother Allen, though after seeing Ray bury shots over Noah's outstretched hand, I doubt it.

6. Contain Rajon Rondo. Rondo is going to be energized by the home crowd, and will probably be taking it to the hole much more often. They can afford to give up the big assist numbers -- he had 19 in Game 6 -- but if Rondo scores 20 or more, I have difficulty seeing the Bulls winning. A huge part of keeping Rondo's scoring down is preventing him from going to the offensive glass, so the Bulls must control the boards.

7. Outwork the Celtics bigs. The Celtics have looked their best when Big Baby Davis and Kendrick Perkins are factors. Big Baby has developed a nice mid-range jumper, so the Bulls -- I'm looking at you, Tyrus -- must get a hand in his face. Meanwhile, the series would likely be over had Perkins not fouled out in Game 6, and the Bulls cannot let him run amok in the middle. Perkins has been surprisingly dominant at times, and both Thomas and Noah have to be focused on getting every rebound. With Boston's array of scoring options, the Bulls simply cannot afford to let them get many second-chance points. Finally, they need to be mentally prepared for a Kevin Garnett sighting, because while I doubt he'll play, they can't have a letdown if he does.

8. Keep doing what you've been doing. With the exception of Gordon, I've rarely seen any Bull step out of the framework of the offense and try to do too much. The Bulls need to realize that what they've done thus far has been successful for the most part, and there's no imperative to try to make plays because it's Game 7. The plays will come if they maintain the mindset from previous games, but pushing too hard will lead to bad shots and turnovers. If what they've done this series wasn't working, they wouldn't still be playing, so no player should take it upon himself to do more just because it's the biggest game of the year.

Finally, here are some statistics, which because of my little old friend regression to the mean, I find oddly encouraging:

The Bulls are 0-5 all-time in Game 7's on the road
Boston has never lost a series after leading 3-2 (31-for-31)
Rookie coaches (like Vinny Del Negro) are 5-13 all-time in Game 7's
Boston is 16-3 all-time in Game 7's at home

See, it's not all bad. Eventually, everything has to turn around, so maybe now is the Bulls' time. But much as I would love to see the Bulls win, I don't think they will.
Not that it would surprise me if they did, though. I really and truly just want them to compete, to be in it until the end. Because regardless of the outcome, the experience they've gained this series has been invaluable. No one gave them a chance to get this far, and yet here they are. They've shown more heart and tenacity than I thought they -- or any young team, for that matter -- were capable of. If you haven't loved what they've done this series then you flat-out do not like sports. They've riveted audiences everywhere, from casual fans to diehards, and the Bulls have once again made the city of Chicago proud of its basketball team. And two weeks ago, who would've thought that could happen? The Bulls appear to have taken Kevin Garnett's words to heart, and they have made everyone believe that anything is possible.

Go Bulls.

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