September 10, 2009

NFL Preview, Part I -- Steelers and TItans edition

Alright, since I'm running out before the first game tonight, I'm going to post a portion of my NFL preview, basically those things that are relevant to tonight's matchup. So for starters, take a look at this (I recommend an electron microscope. Or, failing that, right-clicking on the thing and opening it in a new frame/window):
I was just going to go the lazy route and come up with records for everyone, making sure that they added up to 256-256. But I figured I should see which team(s) I wasn't necessarily expecting to be good had what I thought was a favorable schedule, and therefore could pick up a few wins more than I would've guessed (Jacksonville, for instance, fell into this category.) I know I have some crazy as sleepers in there, but for now let's ignore (most of) them and focus on the two teams playing tonight, as well as the rest of their respective divisions.

Although I think Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league -- and Mike Tomlin has a decent resume compared to the typical guy in his mid-to-late 30s -- I'm not picking either for Coach of the Year, nor am I choosing any Steelers or Titans players for any individual awards, so I'll have all of those -- and playoff breakdowns -- in Part II. So here are their two divisions, with predicted record followed by 2008 record in parentheses:

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5 (12-4)
Baltimore Ravens 9-7 (11-5)
Cleveland Browns 9-7 (4-12)
Cincinnati Bengals 5-11 (4-11-1)

I actually think that the gap between the top and the bottom in this division will be much smaller this season, but I'm still not quite willing to pick Cleveland or Cincinnati over Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Steelers
Pittsburgh should be good. I know, shocking. But I don't think the offensive line is quite as strong in the past few seasons. Could that mean that this is finally the year that Willie Parker, who the Steelers seem to eternally be trying to replace, actually gets replaced? Rashard Mendenhall, who had his rookie year wrecked by a knee injury, might be primed for a breakout in Parker's stead. I mean, just think of the long and illustrious history of running backs from U of I. There's Red Grange, ... and...
um...
someone...
uh...
you know, what's his name...
um... Blue Grange, his troglodyte half-brother? Anyway, the history is undeniably long.

Also lining up in the Steelers backfield? Rookie fullback Frank Summers, probably my favorite first-year player in the league. Summers played at Oakland's Skyline High -- one of the schools on my beat during my days at the Oakland Tribune -- spent a year at Cal, then another at Oakland's Laney College, before finally landing in Vegas with UNLV. Check out this video from when he was in high school, and keep in mind that in the second sequence, Summers is the freaking kicker.

I'm also curious to see if Santonio Holmes can build on the momentum generated by making the greatest non-helmet-aided Super Bowl catch in history and have a breakout year, or if he'll disappoint fantasy owners for the 17th consecutive season.

Defensively, not much has changed. But did you know that defending NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison is already 31? Doesn't it seem like he's been painted in the media as being an up-and-coming young player? Luckily for the Steelers, they have the quintessential up-and-coming stud at one of their other linebacking spots, 23-year-old third-year player Lawrence Timmons. Throw in Casey Hampton and Troy Polamalu, and the Steelers yet again have the makings of one of the league's best defensive units.

Ravens
I would like to say that the Ravens overachieved last year, but the numbers don't really bear that out. They finished tied with the Titans for the best point differential in the league, at +141. And I love the Ravens pair of second-year offensive stars-in-waiting: RB Ray Rice and quarterback Joe Flacco. Despite that, I'm not entirely sold on the Ravens as a team.

For starters, I'm not a big fan of their rebuilt offensive line. Or their receiving corps, which appears decidedly weak, with the momentarily-retired Derrick Mason the only real producer. And then there's the defense.

One of these seasons, 34-year-old Ray Lewis is going to show his age/get busted for PEDs, and his performance will start to tail off. Either way, I see it happening very soon. Also, in the last few years, the Ravens have lost Adalius Thomas and Bart Scott off their linebacking corps, two underrated (at least for a good chunk of their collective tenure) components of their defense. And this year will be their first in 10 without (the admittedly declining) Chris McAlister. Now Haloti Ngata is a beast, as is Ed Reed. And Terrell Suggs. But when you throw in former coordinator Rex Ryan's exit -- he took his ill-conceived timeout-calling to the Jets -- this just might be the year that the Ravens D loses some of its dominance.

Browns
I kind of like the Browns this season, even though I know it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I do think that Braylon Edwards will have a bounce-back year, and I also believe that Brady Quinn will prove to be a capable starter, provided he's actually starting. Their offensive line looks pretty good, and I even like coach Eric Mangini's tactic of refusing to name his starting QB. While it doesn't seem to have exactly worked in the Twitter Era, it still was a decent idea, and it certainly didn't hurt to try. Maybe he really is the Man-Genius.

Defensively, there's not much to like outside of D'Qwell Jackson's play and, more importantly, his name. Still, when looking for true sleepers, I think a good place to start is with teams that were supposed to have been good the year before but instead disappointed. That pretty much describes the Browns. And if they can figure out that RBs James Davis and Jerome Harrison are far better options than Jamal Lewis at this point, they might even post a winning season.

Bengals
I know the Bengals should be better this year -- Carson Palmer is healthier, the defense is younger and faster, Chris Henry is less suspendeder, and the team won only 4 games last year -- but I'm still not willing to say the Bengals actually will be better. While Chad Ochocinco undeniably gets most of the media attention, for the last few years (and especially in 2008) the departed T.J. Houshmandzadeh has been the Bengals best wideout. And I don't see Laveranues Coles replacing that production.

The Bengals also seem to be relying heavily on Cedric Benson -- who was very productive at the end of last season -- as a consistent producer. As a Bears fan, that's a tough one for me to swallow; until Benson proves he can shoulder the load as the primary back for a full season, I remain skeptical. I do think that the Bengals will be better on defense, especially once they let rookie Rey Maualuga onto the field. But they still won't be very good.

And one more reason for the lack of optimism: I've never heard of a single guy -- literally, not one -- that's penciled in to start on the Bengals O-line. I mean, I don't know every good lineman in the league, but I think I know most. Going 0-for-5 is not a good sign. Although it would have been 1-for-5 had tackle/first-round draft pick Andre Smith not celebrated the end of his month-long holdout by immediately breaking his foot in a tragic ink-to-Bengals-contract accident.

AFC South
Tennessee Titans 10-6 (13-3)
Houston Texans 10-6 (8-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars 10-6 (5-11)
Indianapolis Colts 9-7 (12-4)

Uh, if you couldn't tell, this division is a total tossup for me. Top-to-bottom, the AFC South is going to be the best division in the NFL this year, kind of the anti-AFC/NFC West. And apparently I'm picking a three-way tie here, and none of the three are the Colts. Doesn't really seem possible. Nor does an entire division finishing with a winning record, although in each of the last two years there have been two divisions with no losing teams*.

* The NFC East, actually, was one of the divisions in both years. The AFC South was the other in '07, the NFC South last year.

Titans
There is only one reason that I'm not predicting a steeper drop-off for Tennessee: Jeff Fisher. The Bears old #24 is one of the best coaches in the league, if not the very best. Year in and year out, his teams are competitive, and while he hasn't yet won a Super Bowl, at age 51 he's still got plenty of time.

With lightning-fast Chris Johnson and the recently-slenderized LenDale White running behind a quality, veteran offensive line, there's a lot to like about the Titans ground game. The same cannot be said, however, of their passing attack. Like most right-thinking people, I've never been a big Kerry Collins fan, and I'll give a crisp $20 bill to any non-Nashvillian who can name the Titans starting receivers.** Despite some quality at tight end (Bo Scaife, Alge Crumpler), I'm guessing the Titans will be seeing a whole lot of eight-men-in-the-box.

** Sure, you could say the same thing about the Bears' receiving corps, but Kenny Britt and Justin Gage^? At least the Bears have Devin Hester's name recognition.
^ Coincidentally, a Bears castoff.
This Titans season should serve as an excellent barometer of departed defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth's value. Now in Washington, Haynesworth got the lion's share of the credit for Tennessee's 2nd-ranked scoring defense last season. While Haynesworth is admittedly a load and an occasional force, he has a hard time staying on the field, failing to play more than 14 games in any of the last six seasons. That makes him a questionable piece to build around. If the Titans D is once again one of the top units this year -- which I think it will be -- then it's quite possible that Haynesworth has been overrated. Which would be rather odd, as Redskins owner Dan Snyder makes it a rule to never sign overrated free agents.

Texans
The Texans finishing ahead of the Colts? Am I crazy?

Yes. But did you know that the Texans went 8-4 over the last 12 games, and won five of their last six -- with the one loss somehow coming to the woeful Raiders? That they lost each of their games to the Colts by less than a touchdown, including an epic meltdown in Week 5 in which they led by 17 with under five minutes to play and then found themselves trailing by 4 by the 2-minute warning?

The Texans easily could have won 10 games last year, and I think they will build on their strong finish and post the first winning season in franchise history. They are loaded at the skill positions, with stud WR Andre Johnson, Naperville Central's own Owen Daniels at tight end, and second-year running back Steve Slaton,*** who I believe will top what was an excellent rookie season. The three of them should help make the Texans a top-10 offense, after finishing last year as the 17th-highest scoring team.

*** Incidentally, in the 2008 draft, I was hoping the Bears would take Ray Rice -- or failing that, Slaton -- with the pick they used on Matt Forte. While it looked pretty good last year, I'm curious to see how it plays out over the rest of their careers.

The Texans also have some emerging studs on D, most notably the clearly-not-the-player-Reggie-Bush-is Mario Williams and MLB DeMeco Ryans. I also like DT Amobi Okoye, now 22 but in his third season, as a breakout candidate. Yes, the Houston defense should be much improved as well.

Of course, both Houston's season and this prediction are dependent on QB Matt Schaub staying healthy, something he's never been able to do; in fact, he's already got some sort of ailment -- probably a contused duodenum or something -- that's landed him on the injured report (albeit as probable). Still, I think that after back-to-back 8-8 campaigns, the Texans are going to break through.

Jaguars
Now we come to another legitimate sleeper in Jacksonville. Like Cleveland, the Jags were supposed to have been good last year and weren't. They've lost most of their top receivers. But I still see them making a huge improvement.

Why? MoJo. Or, if you prefer, MJD. Maurice Jones-Drew is a stud. In three seasons, he's rushed for 34 scores. That's despite having only 530 carries -- basically 11 per game -- which comes to a touchdown every 15.6 carries. Now compare that to these rushing numbers from either the last two or three seasons, depending on which had the more comparable number of carries:
Brandon Jacobs (3 seasons), 517 carries /28 touchdowns, 18.5 carries/TD
LenDale White (2), 503/22, 22.9 carries/TD
LaDainian Tomlinson (2), 607/26, 23.3 carries/TD
DeAngelo Williams (3), 538/23, 23.4 carries/TD
Michael Turner (3), 527/20, 26.4 carries/TD
Adrian Peterson (2), 601/22, 27.3 carries/TD
Brian Westbrook (2 seasons), 511/16, 31.9 carries/TD
Clinton Portis (2 seasons), 667/20, 33.4 carries/TD
The only one who even comes close to Jones-Drew is Jacobs, who spent a good chunk of those three years as the Giants short-yardage specialist. MoJo's TD rate is nearly twice that of Adrian Peterson, and while I won't go as far as to say Jones-Drew is in Peterson's class, that's still pretty damn impressive.

I mention all of this because with the jettisoning of Fred Taylor, Jones-Drew figures to get a lot more carries this season. A LOT MORE. Just via regression to the mean, his touchdown rate is likely to go down. But his overall touchdowns should go up, and his yardage (he's averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his career) should too. Not to mention that he's averaged nearly 50 receptions per season while splitting time; he could easily catch 70+ balls this year.

There are questions about MJD's size and his ability to carry a full load, but this kind of shit always enrages me. Is there really that much difference between a 5-foot-7, 208-pound running and one that's 5-11, 220? It didn't matter with Warrick Dunn, who's probably 20 pounds lighter than Jones-Drew. No matter what, it's still a relatively small man getting crushed by multiple 300-pounders at high velocity; I can't believe that an increase of less than 6% of body mass would make much of a difference. But no one actually thinks about the physics of it, it's just That guy's too small.

Of course, if Jones-Drew breaks down, it will be immediately attributed to his lack of size. Yeah, because no big back has ever broken down. In fact, that's why Earl Campbell enjoyed such a long, productive career. Some guys get hurt or wear down. While a larger man may be slightly less likely to wear down, it has very little to do with size and more to do with the durability of one's frame and the strength of his joints. Jesus Christ.

As for the non-Jones-Drew aspects, the Jaguars need David Garrard to play like he did in 2007 and not last year. They need free-agent signee Torry Holt to recapture past glory and somehow bounce back from a season in which he appeared to have aged badly. The defense isn't long on star power, so it'll be interesting to see if allegedly-good coach Jack Del Rio is able to cobble together a decent unit.

I'm not quite sure what to make of Del Rio as a coach; I obviously didn't like this move. Consensus seems to be that he's good, but I'm dubious. I'd put him in the John Fox category -- everyone seems to think he's really good, but I've never watched one of his games and thought, Wow, this guy really knows what he's doing. Regardless, if the Jags have another season like last year's, Of the River's job security will be up the creek.****

**** As you can tell, I just can't help myself with these crappy, Del Rio-based plays on words.

Colts
I've never liked the Colts much, so I'm not going to dedicate a whole lot of ink to them here. But like in Tennessee with Haynesworth, this Colts season will be a referendum on the coaching abilities of Tony Dungy.

Despite our striking resemblance (see here, here, and here), I've never been a big Tony Dungy fan. So it'll be interesting to see how the Colts fare. Remember, the last time Dungy left a perennial contender, that team immediately won the Super Bowl (Tampa Bay, 2002). Though Nice-Guy Tony would never admit it, I'm guessing he's not going to be rooting too emphatically for his former charges.

Be it Dungylessness, age, or the increased strength of the division, the Colts almost have to take a bit of a step back this season. The running game, with rookie Donald Brown joining the disappointing Joseph Addai, is a question mark. I don't think they'll miss Marvin Harrison though; well, maybe his deranged gun-brandishing, but not his contributions on the field, which had diminished greatly over the course of the last several seasons.

On the other side of the ball, while it appears that most of the Colts success hinges on the availability of the annually-hobbled Bob Sanders, I really like his usual replacement, Melvin Bullitt. Now that's a name for a headhunter in the defensive backfield, people.

Coming soon (hopefully before Sunday, but probably after since I already have my first-game predictions on record and I'm running out of time and this weekend I have a wedding to go to and my wife and I are celebrating our first anniversary): Part II.

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