10/22/2009 Named Rudy Jaramillo hitting coach
The ultimate much-ado-about-nothing move. While Jaramillo might be a great at what he does, from everything I've seen a major league hitting coach has very little impact on a team's overall offensive attack. Sure, he can get results here and there, but for the most part, he'll help some guys while others regress. It's just the way it works.
Remember when Sammy Sosa's dramatic improvement was attributed to Jeff Pentland? Assuming Pentland was unable to write prescriptions, I think we can safely give the credit elsewhere. But that's not the point. Pentland did not have the same impact on the rest of the Cubs. A hitting coach's approach is going to work for some people, and have little (or negative) effect on others. More importantly, luck and randomness will be much bigger factors to any individual Cubs' statistical improvement this season.
We won't see any lasting offensive improvement until the Cubs organizationally commit to an approach centered around patience and plate discipline. Hiring a new major-league hitting coach is just Hey, look at us, we're doing stuff to get better! as long as they keep promoting guys like Tyler Colvin based largely on an insanely hit-lucky (.576 BABiP; career minor league mark: .313) 77 spring training plate appearances in which he's drawn zero walks.
On the other hand, decorum dictates that the Cubs must have a hitting coach, and Jaramillo's supposedly as good as they come. Just don't expect anything earth shattering. And if the earth does happen to shatter, please look at contributing factors like BABiP before giving Jaramillo the lion's share of the credit. Grade: B+
11/19/09 Traded RHP Aaron Heilman to the Arizona Diamondbacks for 1B Ryne White and LHP Scott Maine
Also known as, Let's All Forget Last Off-Season Happened (LAFLOSH), Part I.
Acquiring Heilman was a terrible idea, and I'm not about to give Jim Hendry an attaboy here because he realized a year too late that Heilman's free-pass-issuin' ways (5.4 BB/9 IP the previous season) would be a terrible fit in the Cubs bullpen. Here's what I wrote of the deal to acquire Heilman in the first place:
Heilman was a mere throw-in to the Mariners in the J.J. Putz deal, but the Cubs couldn't wait to get their hands on the 30-year-old with the 5.21 ERA. Why? Supposedly because Jim Hendry had been an admirer since Heilman's days at Notre Dame. Hey, Jim, here are some other college pitchers you admired: Bobby Brownlie, Ben Christensen, and Grant Johnson. How 'bout we try going with major league track record instead, alright buddy? Thanks. Grade: F
Man, I was a real a-hole last year. Oh how times have changed!
It turned out that Heilman was serviceable last season -- his FIP (fielding independent pitching, which is scaled like ERA) was 4.37 -- although not real popular with the Wrigley faithful. Because of his "success", the Cubs were actually able to get some a little bit of value in return. White is a stocky first baseman with good patience and little power who posted a .266/.371/.356 (BA/OBP/SLG) line as a 22-year-old in High-A ball. I love the walks (65 in 491 PA), but as a 1B at that age in a hitters league, the slugging percentage is just awful. As White was born in Chicago in 1986, I think it's pretty safe to assume he was named after Ryne Sandberg, but I've been unable to unearth any confirmation thereof.
Maine, 25, whose parents were undoubtedly huge Scott Sanderson fans, was actually the bigger prize, a low-arm-slot lefty with excellent peripherals -- FIPs of 2.88 in AA and 2.59 in AAA last year -- who does walk a few too many guys. He's got an injury history, but has already had Tommy John surgery, which in many ways is a good thing because he's gotten it out of the way and performed well since. He strikes out about a batter an inning, and looks like he'll be a decent lefty out of the pen within the next couple of seasons.
All in all, I'd say it was a pretty good return for a guy the Cubs likely would have non-tendered. It's basically the polar opposite of last season's Kevin Gregg trade, although I'd rather have (the subsequently injured) Jose Ceda than Maine. Grade: B+
11/20/09 Signed free agent LHP John Grabow
I didn't like this signing when it happened, because I thought it was way too much money ($7.5 million over 2 years) for a pitcher of Grabow's stature. But after reading this, I changed my tune just a little. If you believe the Hardball Times projections, the Cubs essentially paid $5 million for a win, which was the going rate. And given how thin their bullpen appears to be, that's not a bad allocation of resources.
However, Grabow has seriously outperformed his FIPs the last two years, posting ERAs of 2.84 and 3.36 despite FIPs of 4.54 and 4.20. Of course, the differential was due too absurdly low BABiPs, .251 and .279, respectively; Grabow's marks the previous two seasons were .325 and .319. Because he walks far too many guys (nearly 5 per 9 last year), Grabow's inevitable BABip regression is going to have a huge effect on his overall numbers. Hopefully, the Cubs will get one more lucky year out of the next two. Grade: C
11/30/09 Declined arbitration on Chad Fox, Kevin Gregg, Rich Harden, and Reed Johnson
Unlike the incomprehensible failure to offer Kerry Wood arbitration last year, all of these actually made sense. Fox and Gregg were no-brainers, although I'm thrilled that one fabulous year of Gregg cost the Cubs Ceda. I don't care if Ceda's now injured; that trade was inexcusable.
Declining on Harden was also the right move, as he likely would have accepted; he ended up getting 1-year at $7.5 million from Texas, which is probably right around what he would have gotten in arbitration after making $7 mil last year with the Cubs. Given the (much cheaper) options at hand, that would've been a significant waste of capital for an unreliable arm that seemed to slip a whole lot last year, even when healthy.
Johnson made $3 million last year and salaries rarely go down in arbitration. Considering he only got a 1-year deal for $800,000 on the open market, declining was the right move. Instead of spending $3 million-plus on Johnson, the Cubs used it to sign fellow righty Xavier Nady, who is the better offensive player and is two years younger. Of course, Nady can't play center, but according to FanGraph's UZR, Johnson's no great shakes there either, highlight-reel diving catches notwithstanding. Grade: A
12/3/09 Traded IF Aaron Miles and 1B/3B/OF Jake Fox to the Oakland A's for RHP Jeff Gray, OF/1B/3B Matt Spencer, and RHP Ronny Morla
Hey, what do you know ... it's LAFLOSH, Vol. II.
Look, the Aaron Miles signing was horrible. Everybody (not working for the Cubs) knew it. I said the following last year:
This is our DeRosa replacement? Sure, Miles is a reasonable facsimile of DeRosa, provided you won't quibble over 100 points of OPS. Additionally, Miles made Ronny Cedeno obsolete, even though Cedeno was the better (and much cheaper) player; call me crazy, but even in this day and age two years, $4.9 million seems like an awful lot of money for a utility guy. Grade: D
In the deal with the A's, the Cubs also threw in $1 million dollars, to partially pay Miles' freight. So there's two ways of looking at this:
1. For the privilege of one season of Aaron Miles' .185/.224/.242 line, 20 OPS+, .212 wOBA (weighted on base average), and -1.4 WAR (wins above replacement), the Cubs paid out $3.2 million.
2. Assuming everyone agrees that Miles' is worthless -- and I mean that literally, as in he had no trade value, but it also works in the pejorative sense -- then the deal becomes Jake Fox for the 3 A's and $1.7 million (the balance of Miles' contract). So was that a good deal?
Well, Gray posted a 3.82 FIP in the Big-Boy League last year, and has proven himself to be pretty stingy with the walks, averaging just 2.1BB/9 IP in the minors. The Cubs bullpen has had all kinds of problems with bases on balls over the last several seasons, so I would've thought that Gray would've been a nice alternative in there. But despite what I consider a paper-thin relief corps, Gray -- who did battle a groin injury (thankfully, not to the death) in spring training -- is starting the year in Iowa.
The other two guys are a few years away, if they're lucky enough to make it at all. Spencer, a big corner outfielder, posted a respectable .294/.347/.461 line as a 23-year-old in AA, but it was fueled by a mostly unsustainable (for him at least) .342 BABiP. Morla is the more interesting of the two, however. Now 22, he's had terrible luck in two seasons in in low-A ball, striking out 150 in 138.2 IP, but yielding 157 hits thanks to a BABiP allowed of .382. His ERAs were 4.88 and 4.86, but his FIPs came out to 3.36 and 2.99. I'll be watching to see if he's incredibly hittable or incredibly unlucky. I'm guessing it's the latter.
But I really liked Jake Fox. I did wish his plate discipline was a little better -- and really wished he could've stuck behind the plate -- but he had no position, either on the Cubs or in the National League. I thought he did a very good job at third when Piniella finally gave him a shot there, but everyone seems to think that he can't play anywhere except possibly first base long-term. So for his sake, he needed to be moved to the AL. Given all that, this wasn't a bad deal for the Cubs; still, I can't give it a good grade because it was completely necessitated by the unforgivable Miles signing; it'd be like giving Citigroup credit for turning a profit from investments capitalized by TARP funds. Grade: D+
12/18/09 Traded RF Milton Bradley to the Seattle Mariners for RHP Carlos Silva
Hoo boy. Do I even need to say this is LAFLOSH, Vol. III?
Look, the Bradley signing just flat-out was not a good one, spurred by the Cubs' inexplicable compulsion to become more lefthanded. But to a much greater extent than people gave him credit for, Bradley actually lived up to expectations, not only in the crazies but also on the field.
Everyone knew Bradley wouldn't be able to play 110 games in the outfield; he started 109. No one thought he'd get over 500 PAs, something he's done only twice in his career; he finished with 473. But for all of Bradley's woes, he did post a .378 OBP, the 3rd-best mark on the team (among players with 100 or more ABs), trailing only Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. His career mark is .371.
Aside from the lack of power (30 XBH) the problem with Bradley was the problems with Bradley. He's a malcontent, he's got a persecution complex, he's nuttier than squirrel turds, all of it. None of this should have been a surprise. But somehow it was to Cubs management.
Still, the most damaging aspect of the Bradley saga was the Cubs' suspension of him. It completely destroyed any remaining trade value that Bradley might have had, because it told every other team that the Cubs absolutely would not be taking him back. It was just like the Sammy Sosa thing after 2004; the organization did everything in its power to destroy the guy's worth while he was still in its employ, and it's a horrendous business practice. Suspending Bradley at that point in the season wasn't going to propel the Cubs into the playoffs because of some enormous boost in clubhouse chemistry. It only served to minimize the return when they finally found a taker for him.
To wit: Carlos Silva.
Silva -- wielding his own indefensible contract (4-years, $48 million) that began in 2008 -- had a nice spring, but I'm not buying. Like some other spring training phenoms (yes, I'm picking on Tyler Colvin yet again), with prolonged exposure Silva will be, well, exposed. As someone who doesn't strike anybody out (3.8 / 9 IP), Silva needs three things: an extreme groundball rate, a good defense behind him, and a home park that's pitcher-friendly.
That's nope, not even close, and Are you kidding me?, respectively.
Supposedly Silva's working on the groundball rate, but over the last four years, he's had a 0.84 groundball/flyball ratio, which is only slightly better than average. Meanwhile, the Cubs D was (and likely still is, as most of the key players are the same) below average in '09. FanGraphs has them as 21st in all of baseball, and team UZR over a single season is much more accurate than individual, owing to relative sample sizes. And over the last three years, Wrigley has been the 3rd-, 8th-, and 2nd-best hitter's park in the major leagues.
The only thing in Silva's favor is that he's going to the easier league. But I don't think that's going to be enough. At the absolute best, Silva will be a league-average 4th-starter, and at $8 million a season -- which is the net after deducting the Mariners $9-million contribution -- that's no bargain. Grade: D+
01/02/10 Signed free agent CF Marlon Byrd
I didn't like this signing much at the time, believing it would fall right in line with Hendry's other hideous 3-year deals to overrated 30-something outfielders (Bradley, Jacque Jones). But I'm starting to come around at least a little bit, mostly because of the same Hardball Times piece, wherein Byrd (3-years, $15 million) was listed as the third-best buy among all free agent position players.
Sure, Byrd benefited from one of the best hitters' parks in the American League, but Wrigley is at least the Ballpark's equal in that regard, plus he should get a boost by moving out of the AL. Besides, $5 million a season isn't a whole lot of money -- Jesus, did I really type that? -- so there's not a whole lot of risk. If someone like Brett Jackson proves he's ready earlier than expected, Byrd's contract won't be much of a hindrance to his progress. Grade: C+
01/27/10 Signed free agent 1B/3B/OF Chad Tracy
I liked this deal a lot. Tracy was a highly-regarded hitting prospect who never quite lived up to all the hype. Over his first three seasons -- during each of which he had at least 530 PAs -- he posted a .291/.348/.470 line for an OPS+ of 106. But injuries and the emergence of other players in the Diamondbacks system, he hasn't had as many as 300 PAs in any season since, and his numbers have dropped across the board. In 2007, he had a .wOBA of .342. In '08 it was .313. Last year, .296. Looking on the bright side, though, he is trending more positively then Alfonso Soriano (his wOBA's down .066 over the last three seasons) at exactly 1% of the cost.
And for just $900,000, the Cubs, unlike last year, now have a legitimate backup they can plug in when Ramirez has his annual nagging-injury acquiescence. I believe Tracy will prove to be very valuable coming off the bench Grade: A-
01/29/10 Signed free agent RF Xavier Nady
I really liked the Nady signing too, and not just for his Cal pedigree.
Okay, it was mostly for his Cal pedigree.
While Nady's probably not as good as his stellar 2008 campaign (.305/.357/.510), he does have a lifetime wOBA of .342, which is slightly above league average. He also killed the ball in his last go-round in the NL, during the first half of that 2008 season (.330/.383/.535), and I'm guessing there's a chance that the Cubs and their sabermetric-eschewing tendencies didn't realize those numbers were fueled by a wholly unsustainable .363 BABiP, 50 points higher than the mark over the rest of his career.
But as fourth outfielder/first basemen types go, Nady is definitely high end. He has murdered left-handed pitching throughout the course of his career, going .307/.382/.470 for a .370 wOBA. That's appealing with Kosuke Fukudome doing his Neifi Perez impression against lefties (.324 SLG; .304 wOBA).
There is some significant downside. The first is that Nady is coming off of Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm, and right field is not the place to stick a guy with a bad wing. The second is that he's making $3.3 million. Not a ton of money, but not cheap either for an incapacitated part-timer. Grade: B
02/04/10 Signed free agent 1B Kevin Millar
I liked the Millar signing too, but as a first baseman who doesn't play passable defense in the outfield (he's got a career -17.2 UZR/150 out there), he was just too redundant with Tracy and Nady. Although with Nady unable to reach second base on four hops at this point, I would've liked to have seen them start Nady on the DL with Millar taking his place. But I'm guessing the Cubs figured an injured Nady was still better afield than Millar, and as the latter didn't have a guaranteed deal anyway, cutting him lose didn't cost them anything. Except perhaps the additional karmic expense of letting go of a guy largely credited with helping the Red Sox break their own championship drought/curse. As we all know, that's exactly what the Cubs needed, more bad karma. Grade: Incomplete
03/27/10 Traded 2B Andres Blanco to the Texas Rangers for a player to be named later or cash
When it became clear that the Cubs weren't going to have a spot for Blanco, they had to do something because he was out of options. That surprised the hell out of me, because I was under the impression that he was a rookie last year, but no. He played (rather sparingly) for the Royals in 04-06, his age 20-22 seasons, totaling just 249 PAs but consuming his options.
Since Blanco is never going to hit enough to warrant any playing time -- he's got a career .264/.319/.352 line in 1143 AAA plate appearances -- the PBTNL will either be organizational flotsam or monetary jetsam. While everyone seems to agree that Blanco's a nice glove man, in the age of the ridiculous 12-man pitching staff, there's just not a place for a guy like that on a big-league bench anymore. I find that to be a little sad. Grade: B-
Cumulative GPA: 2.7
By the Cubs' standards, a solid B- is pretty damn good. Coming off a severely disappointing 2009, it was a reasonably productive winter in which I believe the Cubs at least accomplished most of their goals, although the same could have been said after last off-season. The difference is, their agenda this time was much more logical in the baseball sense, as opposed to being fueled by an inane desire to become more left-handed due to a 3-game-long flame-out after a 97-win season.
So what does it all mean? Find out early tomorrow, when I'll be back with my season preview.
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