With this Bulls team, you never know

Tuesday's 101-93 dispatching of the Boston Celtics was a huge win for the Bulls. But their work in claiming a playoff spot is only partially completed.

Yes, it was great to see Derrick Rose really come through in crunch time, scoring 17 of his career-high 39 points in the fourth quarter, and even hitting a pair of (semi-)clutch free throws. And Kirk Hinrich had a superb shooting game in scoring 30, although it would be foolhardy to think that it is something he could do consistently.

But even though the Bulls are ostensibly that much closer to the postseason, for some reason I am not feeling very confident today. Actually, I know the reason: This season, the Bulls have too often followed a big win with an even bigger loss, as I've seen several great performances succeeded by some major defecation in their pantaloons. To wit:

Big Win	Next Game
vs. GSW, 96-91 (OT)	L vs. BOS, 106-80
vs. ATL, 101-98 (OT)	L vs. SAC, 102-98
vs. ORL, 101-93	L vs. OKC, 98-85
@ NO, 108-106 (OT)	L vs. LAC, 90-82
vs. PHI, 122-90	L @ WAS, 101-95
vs. POR, 115-111 (OT)	L @ IND, 100-90
vs. HOU, 98-88	L vs. MIA, 103-74
vs. CHA, 96-88	L vs. MIL, 79-74
vs. CLE, 109-108	L @ NJ, 127-116 (2OT)
vs. BOS, 101-93	??? @ CHA

Quite simply, the Bulls can't afford a similar letdown. Regardless of who is/isn't playing substantial minutes for the Bobcats, Chicago needs to have another performance worthy of a playoff team. Hopefully, I'm just worrying over nothing, but it would be just like this team to get everyone's hopes back up only to crush them with a pitiful showing.

8 keys to the 8 seed

With 80 games down and two to play, and despite everything that's come before this, the Bulls control their own playoff destiny. Sunday's 104-88 win in Toronto assured that.

However, the picture is not as rosy as you might think. After the Raptors surprisingly-easy 111-97 win in Detroit on Monday, the Playoff Odds are not in the Bulls' favor. And they're not even close, really. ESPN.com's John Hollinger gives Chicago just a 28.5% of edging the Raptors, which falls between Basketball-Reference.com's odds (29.5%) and CoolStandings.com's (28.2%).

I believe the Bulls' chances are, in reality, slightly better than that. For starters, their final opponent, Charlotte, has its playoff seeding locked in, and with nothing left to play for is likely to rest its regulars, regardless of any claims to the contrary. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of tonight's opponent, Boston. The Celtics still have an outside shot at grabbing the Eastern Conference's 3-seed -- they need to win their final two and Atlanta would have to lose to a Cavaliers team that only cares about staying healthy. Plus, after last year's hard-fought and sometimes acrimonious first-round playoff series, I'm sure Boston would love to knock the Bulls out of the postseason yet again.

Meanwhile, the Raptors play the Knicks at home, a game everyone (but me) is talking about as a gimme. I actually think New York will win. I have a few reasons, other than it's what I'm hoping will happen: 1) The Knicks' style is very similar to Toronto's, only they do it better. 2) While the Raptors are working on a sweep of the season series, they've won the games by eight, six, and two points, and all but one of those was with the injured Chris Bosh playing. 3) Mike D'Antoni is so superior as a coach to Jay Triano that I really think he'll have his guys amped up for the game, and the Knicks will treat it like their playoffs, while the Raptors will think they can just skate to the win.

Having said that, the Bulls can't count on getting any help, and have to assume that they need to win both games to get in. They can't do anything about the winnable games that they've dropped down the stretch; they have to look forward and do whatever it takes to come out on top in these last two. Here's a helpful list of things they can do to ensure they walk away with the eight seed:

1. Limit the turnovers
The Bulls have won four of their last six. In the losses to Milwaukee and New Jersey, they had 16 and 17 turnovers, respectively. In the four wins, they've been remarkably consistent, turning the ball over 10 times twice and 11 times in the other two. That's a difference of six turnovers per game between the wins and the losses. Keep the turnovers to 13 or less, and the Bulls will have a very good chance of winning both games.

2. Play Joakim Noah in crunch time
Look, most of these are going to fall into the Duh category. But the more I watch, the more that it's clear to me that this is not Derrick Rose's team -- it's Noah's. Noah is the leader, it's Noah's energy the team feeds off of, and it's Noah who's their best crunch-time performer.

So he needs to be out there. None of this ridiculous offense/defense thing at the end of games with Brad Miller. Sorry, but Noah is the more productive offensive player. Sure, Miller might be the better shooter, but Noah does so much more offensively, most notably crashing the boards for tip-ins. At this point, Noah is the superior player on both ends.

Besides, Noah is about the only guy on the team that doesn't wither in the clutch, making him one of the players I'd trust most with late-game free throws. And at .754 overall from the line, he basically shoots the same as Rose (.761), Luol Deng (.766), and Kirk Hinrich (.750) even when there's no pressure on.

3. Use newly-signed Rob Kurz to pull a Gillooly on Jannero Pargo
I don't know how many times I've said that Pargo needs to stop playing, but he continues to get his 15 minutes a game. So if horrible shot selection and all-around ghastly play can't take Pargo out of the lineup, maybe a lead pipe to the shins will.

4. Stop focusing on the officiating
The Bulls veteran "leaders" -- I'm thinking of Hinrich and Miller -- are two of the biggest whiners in the league. According to them, they've never committed a foul, and every whistle against them is an injustice of the highest order. When they're not arguing the calls made against them, they're badgering the refs for non-calls on their missed shots / turnovers.

Unfortunately, this attitude has rubbed off on the rest of the team. Especially Rose.

Yes, the questionable calls in the Nets game hurt, but a bigger reason for the loss -- and the Bulls blowing a 7-point lead in the final minute of the first overtime -- was that they allowed their focus to be overcome by the officiating. Instead of putting any no-calls behind them, the Bulls allowed them to fester, and in the process lost track of the important thing -- doing whatever it took to come away with the win.

5. When Derrick Rose gets frustrated, take him out of the game
More than anyone else, Rose clearly let the way the game was officiated get to him. It started with his foul-plus-flagrant early in the fourth, and continued more or less until the moment he fouled out.

I understand that he's still a kid, and prone to getting frustrated. Shit, if I were him, I'd be frustrated too. One of the great mysteries to me is how Rose can go to the hole so often, and yet draw so few fouls. Last year, I would've chalked it up to him being a rookie, except the Thunder's Russell Westbrook got to the line with nearly twice the frequency: 428 attempts in 2668 minutes (0.160 FTA/min) for Westbrook, versus 250 attempts in 3000 minutes (0.083 FTA/min) for Rose. I have no idea what it is, because they also have pretty much the same body type; all I know is that I see Rose take a ton of contact and not get the whistle.

And in the Nets game, a number of questionable calls were made -- or not made, as the case may be -- against Rose, especially on his back-to-back turnovers in the first overtime. But while his frustration is understandable, it doesn't mean that he should stay on the court when he's clearly overwhelmed by it. He's still young. Pull him out of the game briefly, talk to him, get his mind right, and put him back in there.

You know, coach him.

6. Play like champions
Just kidding. But they need to at least play like a playoff team, as opposed to one that chokes at home to the Andrew Bogut-less Bucks, loses to New Jersey (twice), and blows a 35-point lead against the Kings.

7. When a lineup isn't working, change it
In a perfect world, I wouldn't even have to say this. But in the loss to the Nets, Vinny Del Negro stubbornly kept the lineup of Rose, Hinrich, Deng, Miller, and Taj Gibson out there for basically the entire first overtime -- Noah came in for defense for all of 13 seconds -- and beginning of the second, until Rose fouled out. This was despite the fact that from the final minute of OT until that point, the lineup was outscored 11-0.

Even if Del Negro thought Noah was unavailable, he needed to make a move. Miller, who had completely expended himself in helping the Bulls come back from a 12-point, fourth-quarter deficit, had clearly run out of gas -- he missed badly on a pair of 3s in the first OT, either of which would have sealed the win -- and could have used the rest. Del Negro either should have gone small with Flip Murray or brought in Hakim Warrick. Or he could have pulled Gibson (3-of-10 shooting, plus-minus of -16) for either of them.

The point is, he shouldn't have just done nothing when the game was starting to get away from them. And he can't afford any similar inaction the rest of the way.

8. Seriously, don't play Jannero Pargo
I can't emphasize this enough.

A win's a win

And boy did the Bulls need a win.

Playing at the United Center on Tuesday night against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that decided to give it a go without an ostensibly healthy LeBron James, the Bulls overcame some late-game free throw dry-heaving to eke out a 109-108 victory and pull even with Toronto in the race for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot.

With Chris Bosh likely done for the season, it appears that even without the tiebreaker Chicago has the edge over the Raps. Of course, the Bulls (38-40) absolutely have to beat the RuPaul-of-big-men-free Raptors in Toronto on Sunday. However, with the way the Bulls just played in consecutive games against teams missing their respective best players -- Milwaukee minus the injured Andrew Bogut, Cleveland without a resting LeBron -- I wouldn't even consider calling it a gimme. Nor would I say that about their next game, Friday in New Jersey (the Raptors will be in Atlanta). The Nets have already beaten the Bulls once, and have been playing respectably of late, going 4-4 in their last eight games.

Unlike Tuesday's 79-74 loss to the Bucks, the Bulls played Cleveland (61-18) with a sense of urgency and the appropriate level of intensity. Derrick Rose dished out 10 assists and scored a team-high 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting, while Joakim Noah consistently delivered when Chicago needed a big play, finishing with 17 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks.

Just as importantly, Noah spearheaded an inspired defensive effort -- although you wouldn't know it from looking at the box score, the Bulls played a much better game on that end than they did versus Milwaukee, despite allowing nearly 30 more points. The Cavs were just hitting difficult shots; they were almost always long and contested.

Neither team led by more than five in the first half, which ended with the Bulls up 60-56. While I would have liked to have seen the Bulls annihilate the shorthanded Cavs (who were also without Shaquille O'Neal, Delonte West, and Daniel Gibson), my biggest complaint was that coach Vinny Del Negro again went five-deep with his bench. And that included yet another appearance by Jannero Pargo, who inexplicably continues to get minutes in his valiant attempt to drive his field goal percentage into the 20s.

In the third quarter, the Bulls built and blew a 12-point lead, and Cleveland eventually went ahead ahead 85-84 early in the fourth. The Bulls then reeled off a 12-4 run to grab a 7-point lead with 7:01 to go, but the Cavs responded by scoring 11 unanswered, highlighted by a pair of long 3s by Mo Williams, the second of which put Cleveland up 100-96 with 4:45 remaining and had LeBron turning the hardwood into his own personal dance floor. Again.

But this time, instead of rebuking LeBron from his seat on the bench, Noah let his play do the talking, and took it to the Cavs on the court. On the Bulls' next possession, he went hard to the hole and got an and-one to pull them back to within 100-99. After Jamario Moon and Kirk Hinrich (23 points on 8-of-12 shooting, rock-solid D) traded baskets, Luol Deng converted a three-point play of his own to give the Bulls a 104-102 lead.

With Williams briefly going cold -- he sandwiched a pair of off-target 3s around an airballed one by Moon, with Noah controlling the boards to limit the Cavs to one-shot possessions -- the Bulls missed a chance to take a two-possession lead when Hinrich drew a shooting foul just inside the 3-point arc and hit only 1-of-2 free throws.

Unfortunately, that would be as good as it would get for the Bulls at the line.

Trailing 105-102, Williams briefly got loose in front of the Bulls bench, and nailed a 3 just ahead of the close by Hinrich and Taj Gibson. But on the ensuing possession, Noah found himself alone a foot below the top of the key, and without hesitation buried an 18-footer to regain the advantage. As TNT's Doug Collins said:

I'm sure that Cleveland will live with Joakim Noah taking that shot -- under two minutes, game tied -- but you've got to give the young guy credit, he stepped up.

Following that, Williams used an Anderson Varejao screen to get the tiniest sliver of space on Hinrich and Gibson, and drilled yet another 3 -- that's four in a span of 3:53, and 35 points for the game -- to give the Cavs a 108-107 lead with 1:31 left to play.

Derrick Rose responded by knifing through the Cleveland defense with a strong take, and although his hanging bank shot rimmed out, Noah was there to tip it home for a 109-108 lead.

Neither team would score the rest of the way, the Cavs because of some inspired Chicago defense, and the Bulls because they treated the free-throw line like a herpes-riddled groupie.

Even though the Williams 3s were the only baskets the Bulls allowed in the final four minutes in holding Cleveland to 2-for-12 shooting, it was in the final 30 seconds that the Chicago D really put the clamps down.

After Rose missed a forced 3 with the shot clock expiring, Williams took an outlet pass and tried to beat the Bulls down the floor. But he essentially had to go 1-on-4, and his layup was blocked out of bounds by Gibson, who battled foul trouble and missed his last eight field goal attempts, but still managed to log some productive minutes (three blocks, two steals).

Williams got the ensuing inbounds and missed a 16-footer with Hinrich draped all over him. Deng (22 points, 10 rebounds) grabbed the board and was fouled with 14.4 seconds remaining, and proceeded to miss both free throws.

Cleveland then had a few chances to regain the lead, but suddenly looked completely lost without James to turn to in crunch time. Varejao deer-in-the-headlightsed a 17-footer, and Moon had his attempted putback swatted away by Noah. The ball ended up in Anthony Parker's hands, and he found Varejao, who by this point had fecal juices running down his legs, and he chunked a reasonably-open jumper from 15 feet. Rose grabbed the rebound and was fouled with 1.3 seconds left.

He then went to the line and missed both free throws. These weren't in-and-out jobs, either; he completely short-armed each of them as if he were playing Kansas. But on the second miss, Noah made an extremely heady play, back-tapping the rebound so that the clock expired without the Cavs ever getting another possession, letting out a scream as he did so to celebrate what was a huge win for the Bulls.

Some might call it a moral defeat; others prefer immoral victory. But it goes in the W column all the same.